About
Prediction Markets World
An independent reference covering every major prediction market operator, how they're regulated, and how event contracts actually work โ across 21 markets worldwide.
What we do
Prediction Markets World tracks the global prediction market landscape โ operators, regulation, legal status by jurisdiction, and the mechanics behind how event contracts work. We publish guides in 21 locales across Europe and North America, written for people who actually want to understand (or trade) these markets, not just read headlines about them.
How we evaluate operators
Operator profiles are based on publicly available information: regulatory filings, terms of service, official documentation, and observable market behavior. We do not score operators on a numerical scale โ prediction markets are genuinely different products for different users, and a ranking would obscure more than it reveals. Instead, we describe each platform's approach, strengths, and relevant risks, and let readers decide.
Keeping up with a fast-moving space
The prediction market landscape changes fast โ regulatory decisions, new operators, platform policy changes, and legal developments can all shift the picture within days. We update content when material changes occur. Each page shows a last-updated date where relevant. If you spot something that is out of date, the best way to flag it is to search for contact details in the footer.
Scope of coverage
Platform profiles
- Regulated CFTC exchanges (Kalshi, ForecastEx)
- On-chain venues (Polymarket, Drift Bet)
- Academic / research markets (Iowa Electronic Markets, PredictIt)
- Broker-embedded event contracts (Robinhood, Interactive Brokers, Webull)
- Play-money and sweepstakes platforms (Manifold, Verse)
Legal & regulatory context
- US federal picture: CFTC oversight, key rulings, operator licensing status
- State-by-state availability for all 50 US states + DC
- European regulatory framing: gambling commissions, MiFID II, local licensing
- Tax treatment by jurisdiction (general guidance only โ not legal advice)
How they work
- Event contract mechanics: YES/NO shares, pricing, resolution
- Orderbooks vs automated market makers (AMMs)
- LMSR and other market-making formulas
- Implied probability, bid-ask spread, liquidity
- Glossary of ~60 terms used across the industry
Scope limits
We do not provide trading signals, price predictions, or investment advice of any kind. Nothing on this site should be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Prediction markets are short-term, all-or-nothing instruments โ closer in risk profile to sports betting than to long-term investing. We describe how they work and who operates them; what you do with that information is entirely your decision.
We do not cover individual market outcomes or try to predict who will win any specific event. There are better places to find that โ Polymarket and Kalshi themselves publish current prices, and aggregators like Metaculus and Manifold track long-horizon questions.
Legal disclaimer
Nothing on Prediction Markets World is financial, legal, or tax advice. Regulatory and legal status of prediction markets changes frequently and varies by jurisdiction โ information here may be out of date. Always verify the current legal status of any platform in your specific jurisdiction before depositing funds. Trading event contracts involves the risk of total loss of capital. If betting feels compulsive, the National Council on Problem Gambling helpline is 1-800-GAMBLER.