Prediction Markets in
Australia
Your Australian guide to prediction markets: how they work, which platforms are available, and how they're regulated.
The legal landscape in Australia
Prediction markets in Australia are not specifically regulated. ASIC (Australian Securities and Investments Commission) oversees financial derivatives, while AUSTRAC regulates cryptocurrency exchanges under the Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing Act. Platforms like Polymarket are accessible via crypto wallets. Manifold operates outside financial regulation due to its virtual currency model. Australia has no platform holding a prediction market licence, but the regulatory environment is relatively open to fintech innovation.
Compare available platforms
| Operator | Type | Settlement | Fees | Min deposit | KYC | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Crypto / On-chain | USDC on Polygon | ~2% (taker) | $1 | Light (geo-restricted) | $8B+ lifetime | Details โ |
| Manifold Markets | Play-money | Mana (play-money) | None | Free | Email only | N/A (play-money) | Details โ |
| Myriad Markets | Media-integrated | Multi-chain (USD1 stablecoin) | Variable | Varies | Light | $20M Series A (Feb 2026) | Details โ |
Polymarket
USDC-settled on Polygon. Largest prediction market by volume.
Play-moneyManifold Markets
Free play-money social prediction platform with user-created markets.
Media-integratedMyriad Markets
Prediction markets embedded into publisher and media experiences. Trust Wallet integration, USD1 stablecoin settlement.
Prediction markets and the Australian fintech landscape
Australia has no licensed prediction market operator. Australian users primarily access international platforms โ first Betfair's exchange in the 2000s, then on-chain players like Polymarket and Manifold. ASIC oversees financial derivatives, while AUSTRAC regulates cryptocurrency exchanges under the AML/CTF Act. Platforms like Polymarket are accessible via crypto wallets. The regulatory environment is relatively open to fintech innovation, but no specific framework exists for event contracts. Intercontinental Exchange's 2 billion dollar investment in Polymarket in October 2025 has raised expectations for further regulatory clarity globally, though as of April 2026 no formal changes have occurred in Australia.
How the ATO treats prediction market gains
The tax treatment of prediction market gains in Australia depends on the nature of your activity. If treated as gambling winnings from an unregulated offshore operator, gains are generally not taxable in Australia (gambling winnings are typically tax-free). If classified as financial derivatives, gains are subject to Capital Gains Tax (CGT) with a 50% discount for assets held over 12 months. For frequent or high-volume traders, the ATO may treat income as ordinary assessable income taxable at marginal rates. USDC-denominated gains may also have cryptocurrency tax implications. Consult a tax adviser for specific guidance.
What Australian traders should know
Offshore platforms
No operator holds an Australian prediction market licence. Neither ASIC nor AUSTRAC offers protection in case of disputes with offshore platforms. There is no regulated escalation path in Australia.
Settlement in USD or USDC
The major platforms settle in US dollars or stablecoins. AUD/USD movements can erode profits or amplify losses beyond the market outcome itself.
Help resources
If gambling is causing difficulties, the National Gambling Helpline offers free confidential support at 1800 858 858. Note that offshore prediction market platforms are not covered by Australian problem gambling services.