Prediction Markets in the
United States
Your US guide to prediction markets: regulated exchanges, event contracts, and how to participate legally under CFTC oversight.
Compare available platforms
| Operator | Type | Settlement | Fees | Min deposit | KYC | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Crypto / On-chain | USDC on Polygon | ~2% (taker) | $1 | Light (geo-restricted) | $8B+ lifetime | Details → |
| Kalshi | CFTC-regulated | USD cash | 0–7% of profit | $1 | Full KYC required | $2B+ in 2025 | Details → |
| Manifold Markets | Play-money | Mana (play-money) | None | Free | Email only | N/A (play-money) | Details → |
| PredictIt | Academic / Research | USD | 10% of net profits; 5% on withdrawals | $10 | Full KYC (US only) | $1B+ lifetime | Details → |
| ForecastEx | CFTC-Regulated Exchange | USD | None (bid-ask spread only) | $0 (accessed via broker) | Via broker (IB, Robinhood) | Growing | Details → |
| Robinhood | Broker (Embedded Contracts) | USD | $0.01/contract + $0.01 exchange fee (~$0.02/contract) | $0 | Full KYC (US only) | 26M+ users · 1M+ active PM traders | Details → |
| Interactive Brokers | Broker (Embedded Contracts) | USD | No commission on event contracts | $0 | Full KYC (institutional + retail) | High (institutional focus) | Details → |
| Webull | Broker (Embedded Contracts) | USD | No commission (spread-based) | $0 | Full KYC (US only) | Moderate | Details → |
| Drift Bet | Crypto / On-chain | USDC on Solana | ~1–2% (taker) | $1 | None (wallet-based) | Moderate | Details → |
| Verse | Sweepstakes / Parlay | USD (sweepstakes model) | None | $0 | Age verification only | Growing | Details → |
| Iowa Electronic Markets | Academic / Research | USD | None | $5 | Light (US only, $500 account cap) | Low (academic use) | Details → |
| Novig | Sports Exchange | USD | Commission-free P2P exchange (no vig) | $10 | Full KYC (select US states) | $75M Series B (Feb 2026) | Details → |
| ProphetX | Sports Prediction Exchange | USD | Low exchange fee | $10 | Full KYC (US) | Growing | Details → |
| Crypto.com | Crypto Exchange + Prediction Markets | USDC / USD | Variable (market dependent) | $1 | Full KYC | High (large crypto exchange) | Details → |
| Coinbase | Crypto Exchange (Event Contracts) | USDC on Base | Variable (spread-based) | $1 | Full KYC (US) | High (largest US crypto exchange) | Details → |
| PrizePicks Predict | Pick'em / Prediction Market | USD | Built into payout structure | $10 | Full KYC (age + state verification) | High (large DFS platform) | Details → |
| OG.com | Esports Prediction Market | USD / crypto | Variable | Varies | KYC required | Growing | Details → |
Polymarket
USDC-settled on Polygon. Largest prediction market by volume.
CFTC-regulatedKalshi
First fully CFTC-regulated US event-contract exchange.
Play-moneyManifold Markets
Free play-money social prediction platform with user-created markets.
Academic / ResearchPredictIt
Longest-running US political prediction market. $850 contract cap per market.
CFTC-Regulated ExchangeForecastEx
CFTC-regulated event contracts embedded in major brokerages. No separate account required.
Broker (Embedded Contracts)Robinhood
Consumer brokerage offering embedded event contracts. Fastest-growing retail prediction market platform in the US.
Broker (Embedded Contracts)Interactive Brokers
Institutional-grade brokerage with ForecastEx political, economic, and financial event contracts.
Broker (Embedded Contracts)Webull
Commission-free brokerage with embedded Kalshi economic and financial event contracts.
Crypto / On-chainDrift Bet
Solana-based prediction market. Politics, economics, sports, and crypto. No KYC required.
Sweepstakes / ParlayVerse
Sports, politics, and pop culture parlay-style predictions. Relaunched as Verse Picks (Sep 2025) with YES/NO + multi-leg parlays.
Academic / ResearchIowa Electronic Markets
University of Iowa research market. US politics only. Oldest continuously operating real-money prediction market.
Sports ExchangeNovig
Peer-to-peer sports exchange. Commission-free orderbook model, no bookmaker vig built into odds.
Sports Prediction ExchangeProphetX
Sports prediction exchange using a limit-order model. Sharp-bettor and market-maker friendly.
Crypto Exchange + Prediction MarketsCrypto.com
Prediction markets via derivatives subsidiary, politics, economics, sports, and financial markets.
Crypto Exchange (Event Contracts)Coinbase
Event contracts for US users via Coinbase platform, settled in USDC on Base L2.
Pick'em / Prediction MarketPrizePicks Predict
Sports pick'em prediction market. Real-money payouts on over/under athlete and event predictions.
Esports Prediction MarketOG.com
Esports and gaming-focused prediction market backed by the OG esports organization.
How prediction markets became legal in the US
For years prediction markets sat in a legal gray zone in the US. In 2022 the CFTC blocked Polymarket from taking US bets. The agency then went after Kalshi, but a key October 2024 court injunction let Kalshi keep operating during the case: a ruling widely read as a green light for the whole category. Within weeks, Interactive Brokers added ForecastEx contracts and Robinhood launched election event contracts. The CFTC dropped its Kalshi case in May 2025. Later in 2025 the Trump administration walked away from federal enforcement against Polymarket entirely, and on October 7, 2025 Intercontinental Exchange (the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange) announced an investment of up to $2 billion in Polymarket. As of March 2026 Polymarket is rolling out a new, fully sanctioned US app via a waitlist after acquiring a licensed derivatives exchange called QCEX.
Where Americans can legally trade today
The US market now spans freestanding exchanges, brokerages with embedded event contracts, and crypto-native venues. Each operator covers a different mix of categories.
Embedded access
- Robinhood: sports and economic event contracts via Kalshi and ForecastEx (sports unavailable in NJ)
- Interactive Brokers: political, economic and financial-market contracts via ForecastEx
- Webull: economic and financial-market contracts via Kalshi
- Crypto.com (politics, economics, financial and sports via its derivatives subsidiary
- NinjaTrader) financial-market contracts via Tradovate
Standalone platforms
- Kalshi: broadest topic coverage, fully CFTC-regulated
- Polymarket: largest in the world by volume, USDC-settled, US relaunch in progress
- PredictIt: Victoria University of Wellington research project, politics only, $850 cap per contract
- Iowa Electronic Markets: University of Iowa academic project, $500 account cap
- Manifold: play-money mana plus real-money sweepcash (5% cashout fee); unavailable in DE, ID, MI, WA
- Drift Bet: Solana-based, full topic range
- Verse: sports, current events, pop culture; sweepstakes-style real-money payouts
- ForecastEx: CFTC-regulated exchange inside Robinhood and Interactive Brokers
Federal green light, state-level pushback
Even with federal regulators backing off, the state picture is messier. As of February 2026, eleven state governments are pursuing cease-and-desist orders or other enforcement actions against at least one prediction market operator, and another eight states have pending civil litigation or class action lawsuits against operators. Manifold, for instance, is unavailable in Delaware, Idaho, Michigan and Washington. The legality of any specific platform in your specific state can change with little warning: always check before depositing.
Browse prediction markets by state
Every state has a different mix of platform availability, regulatory posture, and tax treatment. Browse the full guide or jump straight to your state.
How US winnings are taxed
Platforms like Kalshi and PredictIt issue annual 1099-MISC forms reporting net profits as ordinary income, meaning winnings are taxed at your ordinary income rate. Even if a more specific status is created later, event contracts are typically held for less than a year, so they would still fall under short-term capital gains, which are taxed at ordinary income rates anyway.
The upside if you lose: you can deduct up to $3,000 of net losses per year, with anything beyond that carried forward to offset future winnings. State-level treatment varies and is best assumed to be ordinary income until your state clarifies. Note also that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed July 4, 2025, caps the deductibility of sports betting losses at 90% starting in 2026: relevant if you're trading sports event contracts.
Three risks that have actually played out
The Khamenei market
Kalshi ran a market on whether Iran's former supreme leader would be ousted by March 2026, with over $54M wagered on YES. After his death in U.S.–Israeli strikes on February 28, Kalshi declined to pay out, citing internal rules against death-related bets, and refunded stakes instead. Litigation is pending.
No insider rules apply
In mid-February 2026, Israeli authorities accused two people of using classified information to place Polymarket bets. Days later, six newly-funded Polymarket accounts won over $1.2M on a "US strikes Iran by Feb 28" market just before the strikes began.
Gambling-like behavior
Event contracts are short-term, all-or-nothing bets: closer to sports betting than long-term investing. If betting feels compulsive, the National Council on Problem Gambling helpline is 1-800-GAMBLER.
Learn prediction markets
From regulation to strategy to taxes: everything a US trader needs to know.
How prediction markets work
From implied probability to orderbooks: the complete beginner's guide to event contract trading.
● RegulationCFTC regulation explained
What a CFTC DCM licence means for traders, how federal preemption works, and what happens in caution states.
● TaxesUS prediction market tax guide
1099-MISC, ordinary income rates, the $3,000 loss cap, the OBBBA sports betting rule, and state taxes.
● StrategyStrategy & bet sizing
Kelly Criterion, finding edge, common mistakes, and how to think about probability like a professional.
● RiskInsider trading on prediction markets
What counts as illegal insider trading, the Fort Bragg prosecution, and how to stay on the right side of the law.
● ToolKelly Criterion calculator
Enter your edge and bankroll to calculate the mathematically optimal stake. Includes half-Kelly and quarter-Kelly.
● How-to guideHow to trade on Kalshi
Step-by-step account setup, funding, placing orders, fee breakdown, and getting started on the largest CFTC-regulated exchange.
● How-to guideHow to trade on Polymarket
QCEX waitlist, USDC wallet setup, order placement, and tax self-reporting for the world's largest prediction market.
● How-to guideHow to trade on PredictIt
Account creation, the $850-per-contract cap explained, fee structure, and political market strategy for US users.
● How-to guideHow to trade on Manifold
Free play-money forecasting with no KYC: the best starting point for prediction market beginners before trading with real money.
● Funding guideHow to fund your Kalshi account
ACH, debit card, and wire transfer: deposit times, fees, and how to withdraw explained.
● Advanced strategyPrediction market arbitrage
How to find and exploit price discrepancies between Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt for guaranteed profit.
● Tax guidePolymarket tax guide
No 1099 issued: how to self-report USDC profits, track cost basis, and use Koinly or TaxBit.
● Tax guideKalshi tax guide
1099-MISC, how Kalshi calculates net profit, why Kalshi losses avoid the OBBBA 90% cap, and how to report.
● Legal guideAre prediction markets legal in the US?
CFTC jurisdiction, federal preemption, the 2024 Kalshi court ruling, and what legal means for US traders.
● EducationalHow prediction markets make money
Profit fees vs taker fees vs withdrawal fees: how each platform earns revenue and what it costs traders.
● EducationalHow to read prediction market odds
What 70¢ means, implied probability, calculating break-even, and how to spot a mispriced contract.
● ReferencePrediction market glossary
25+ terms explained: implied probability, taker fee, CFTC DCM, OBBBA, Kelly Criterion, and more.
● ReviewRobinhood prediction markets review
Robinhood embeds Kalshi contracts via API: $0.02/contract fee, curated catalog, and when to use Robinhood vs Kalshi direct.
● How-to guideHow to withdraw from Kalshi
Step-by-step ACH withdrawal guide, 3–5 day timing, why your available balance may be less than your total, and common issues.
● ComparisonPrediction markets vs stocks
Binary event contracts vs equity ownership: key differences in risk, tax treatment, timeframe, and when to use each.
Recent US prediction market news
Regulation, platform updates, and enforcement actions: all with direct impact on US traders.
Fort Bragg soldier arrested for Polymarket insider trading
First criminal prosecution of a prediction market user in the US. Trump publicly called markets a "casino" in response.
● April 26, 2026Wisconsin sues Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood
The Wisconsin AG filed civil complaints against all major platforms in the most significant state-level action since 2022.
● April 26, 2026NY and IL governors issue prediction market executive orders
Hochul and Pritzker ordered state agencies to pursue action against prediction market operators, escalating the state vs federal conflict.
Platform comparisons
Kalshi vs Polymarket
The two dominant platforms compared: USD vs USDC, CFTC-regulated vs on-chain.
For investorsKalshi vs Robinhood
Direct exchange access vs embedded broker: fees, sports coverage, API.
For beginnersKalshi vs Manifold
Real-money regulated trading vs free play-money forecasting.
For sports fansRobinhood vs Polymarket
Available now vs waitlisted: sports contracts vs global liquidity.
vs Sports bettingPrediction markets vs sports betting
What's different about CFTC-regulated event contracts: fees, regulation, and whether you should switch.
Frequently asked questions — US prediction markets
Are prediction markets legal in the United States? +
Yes: at the federal level. The CFTC regulates event contracts as derivatives, and fully licensed operators like Kalshi and ForecastEx are legal for US users. The CFTC dropped its enforcement case against Kalshi in May 2025. State-level enforcement varies: as of early 2026, 11 states have active cease-and-desist actions against at least one operator.
Which prediction market is best for US users? +
Kalshi is the broadest fully CFTC-regulated option, covering sports, economics, and politics. ForecastEx (via Interactive Brokers or Robinhood) suits investors already using those platforms. Polymarket has the deepest liquidity globally and is relaunching a licensed US product via waitlist in 2026.
How are prediction market winnings taxed in the US? +
Platforms like Kalshi issue 1099-MISC forms reporting net profits as ordinary income. You can deduct up to $3,000 of net losses per year with excess carried forward. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (July 4, 2025) caps sports-betting loss deductibility at 90% starting 2026.
Can I use Polymarket in the US? +
The main Polymarket platform still restricts US retail users after a 2022 CFTC settlement. A new licensed US app via waitlist (through QCEX) is rolling out through 2026.
What states restrict prediction markets? +
As of early 2026, at least 11 states have active enforcement actions. Manifold is unavailable in Delaware, Idaho, Michigan, and Washington. Legal status changes quickly: check the state-by-state guide for your state before depositing.