Are prediction markets
legal in the UK?
Prediction markets occupy a genuine regulatory grey zone in the UK: neither the FCA nor the Gambling Commission has established clear jurisdiction. The Gambling Act 2005 requires operators to hold a Gambling Commission licence to offer gambling to UK customers, but courts have not tested whether prediction market contracts constitute gambling. Individual users face no explicit prohibition. This guide explains the full legal picture.
FCA vs Gambling Commission: competing jurisdiction
The Financial Conduct Authority regulates financial markets under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (FSMA). If prediction market contracts are classified as specified investments (e.g. contracts for differences or binary options), platforms would need FCA authorisation. FCA has not issued formal guidance on prediction market contracts specifically.
The Gambling Commission enforces the Gambling Act 2005. Operators providing gambling facilities to UK customers need a Gambling Commission licence. The definition of "gambling" includes betting, but whether prediction market contracts qualify is untested in UK courts. The Commission has not blocked or issued formal rulings against any prediction market platform.
Which platforms can UK users access?
| Platform | UK Status | Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Grey zone | Accessible via USDC wallet. No UK licence. No explicit UK user block. No known enforcement action against UK Polymarket users (May 2026). |
| Betfair Exchange | Licensed | Gambling Commission licensed. Political betting markets available (UK elections, party leadership). Not a traditional prediction market but closest UK alternative. |
| Kalshi | Not available | US exchange regulated by CFTC. US residents only. Geographic restriction applies to UK users. |
| Manifold | Available | Play-money (Mana) with no regulatory relevance. SweepCash feature accessible from UK. |
| PredictIt | Not available | CFTC no-action letter for US users only. UK users explicitly excluded. |
What UK law actually says
The Gambling Act 2005 defines "betting" as making or accepting a bet on the outcome of an event, among other things. Whether prediction market contracts meet this definition (where prices are set by a market mechanism and outcomes verified on-chain) is an open question. Separately, FSMA 2000 would apply if contracts are classified as specified investments; binary options were classified as such by the FCA in 2019 and subsequently banned for retail clients.
Practical assessment: The Gambling Commission has focused enforcement on unlicensed online casinos and sports betting operators: not prediction market platforms. The FCA's binary options ban does not explicitly cover prediction markets, which use a continuous market mechanism rather than fixed-odds contracts. For any significant volume, legal advice is prudent. The current lack of enforcement creates de facto tolerance, but this could change: the UK Gambling Act review (ongoing as of 2026) may bring clarity.
More guides for UK users
Prediction Market Tax in the UK
HMRC treatment: gambling winnings tax-free vs CGT on crypto assets.
ReviewPolymarket Review 2026 (UK)
The only major platform accessible in the UK: fees, markets, wallet. Rating 4.3/5.
How-toHow to trade on Polymarket from the UK
From buying USDC on Coinbase UK to your first trade: step-by-step for beginners.