Prediction Markets Hit Wall Street Earnings Season: DraftKings at $11B Annualized Volume, Robinhood at $156M Revenue, Coinbase at $100M+

Four US-listed companies — DraftKings, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Flutter — all reported material prediction market figures in their second quarter 2026 earnings calls, the first earnings cycle in which the category appeared as a distinct contributor for all four simultaneously. DraftKings CEO Jason Robins said annualized prediction platform volume grew from $2.3 billion in April to $11 billion by July, in a company that launched its prediction product in December 2025. Robinhood's Rothera exchange, launched in June as a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group, reported $156 million in event contracts revenue in the second quarter and over 3.5 billion contracts traded to date. Coinbase reported 106% quarter-over-quarter prediction market revenue growth with annualized Q2 revenue surpassing $100 million. Flutter, which is LSE-listed and the parent of both FanDuel and Paddy Power Betfair, reported it would move FanDuel Predicts' sports and novelty contracts from CME to Crypto.com ahead of the NFL season.

For UK readers, the Flutter details are the most directly relevant. Flutter is one of the UK's best-known sports betting operators — Paddy Power and Betfair are both Flutter brands, and the company holds FCA and Gambling Commission authorisations across multiple jurisdictions. Its US arm FanDuel is the largest legal sports betting operator in the United States. Flutter's decision to move FanDuel Predicts from CME to Crypto.com is a product infrastructure choice, but the CEO's comment on the call is a regulatory admission that merits attention: FanDuel Predicts 'allows us to acquire customers ahead of sports betting regulation in new states.' Flutter is using CFTC-regulated prediction market status as an entry mechanism in US states that have not yet legalised state-level sports betting — essentially using federal prediction market licensing to operate in markets where its sportsbook cannot. UK operators watching the US market will note that this structural arbitrage is available to any operator that can obtain a CFTC-licensed DCM, and it may inform how they think about regulatory strategy if UK prediction market authorisation eventually opens.

DraftKings' customer overlap data is the most analytically interesting disclosure across all four companies. CEO Jason Robins said only 1% of DraftKings sportsbook customers also use the largest prediction market operator in sportsbook states. He described prediction markets as attracting 'a fundamentally different and largely professional audience,' with 80-90% of consumer volume coming from betting syndicates and institutional traders rather than recreational bettors. If that characterisation is accurate, it changes the UK regulatory calculus significantly. The Gambling Commission's harm reduction framework is built around protecting recreational bettors — problem gambling profiles are retail, not institutional. A prediction market ecosystem that is 80-90% institutional by volume looks less like a consumer gambling product and more like a financial trading venue, which would place it closer to FCA jurisdiction than Gambling Commission oversight. The Commission has not publicly addressed how it would classify prediction market activity if UK access were formally authorised, but DraftKings' disclosure gives regulators a volume-distribution data point they previously lacked.

The NFL season, beginning in September, is the stated growth catalyst in every company's earnings narrative. Robins predicted 'millions' of DraftKings prediction customers by NFL season; Rothera's founders stressed their technology can handle sustained pressure after the World Cup proved it at scale; Flutter explicitly cited NFL season timing as the driver of its CME-to-Crypto.com migration deadline. The prediction market category has grown on political and geopolitical markets — US elections, international conflicts — and then on the FIFA World Cup. The NFL is the single largest US sports betting market by volume and will be the first sustained test of whether prediction markets can convert the sports-betting audience at scale, rather than drawing primarily from politically-oriented traders and institutional participants. Whether the 1% sportsbook overlap that DraftKings sees today holds or collapses under NFL season pressure will answer whether prediction markets are a complementary instrument or a direct substitute for traditional sports wagering — and that answer will shape how both regulators and legislators approach the next phase of the debate.

Operators mentioned in this article

CFTC-regulated

Kalshi

First fully CFTC-regulated US event-contract exchange.

Crypto / On-chain

Polymarket

USDC-settled on Polygon. Largest prediction market by volume.

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