Prediction Markets
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CFTC rulings, platform launches, and regulatory shifts: everything that moves the prediction market landscape.
Recent updates
Utah Files Felony Charges Against Kalshi and Its Founders โ Second State to Criminally Charge a Platform
Utah filed criminal charges against Kalshi and its two co-founders, Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, on October 28 โ 13 felonies and a misdemeanour, including a second-degree 'pattern of unlawful criminal activity' count and 12 counts of online gambling promotion. The charges stem from a September sting in which an undercover agent placed 12 sports wagers verified to be in Utah. The CFTC sued Utah the day before to block state enforcement, its tenth such suit. Utah is the second state after Arizona to criminally charge Kalshi, and the first to charge the founders personally. Kalshi called it a 'crazy overreach.'
Read more →NBA Names Kalshi and Polymarket Preferred Exchanges โ Leaving the NFL Alone in Opposition
The NBA announced on October 26 that it has named Kalshi and Polymarket its 'preferred prediction market exchanges,' signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with the CFTC on basketball integrity, and expanded its DraftKings deal to include prediction markets โ the first league to extend a sportsbook partnership into the category. The exchange deals bar league and team personnel from trading NBA contracts, limit permissible markets, and require sharing suspicious-trading data, in exchange for NBA intellectual property and official data. The NBA joins MLB, the NHL, and MLS as partnered leagues, leaving the NFL as the lone major holdout โ and the only league fighting the platforms in court.
Read more →CFTC Chair Says Agency Is Watching Prediction Markets for Manipulation Ahead of Midterms
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said on October 23 that the agency is closely monitoring prediction markets for manipulation ahead of the November 3 midterms, and that it is separately scrutinising oil market trading tied to President Trump's announcements about the war in Iran. Combined midterm open interest on Kalshi and Polymarket stood at $250 million as of October 18, with Kalshi holding 84%. Selig acknowledged the agency often catches political figures trading 'oftentimes after the fact.' The remarks highlight the CFTC's dual role as both the platforms' federal protector and their manipulation watchdog.
Read more →Pentagon Bars Personnel From Trading on Military Information After $400K Prediction Market Scandal
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued an October 20 memo barring Department of Defense personnel from making financial transactions using non-public information, explicitly naming Polymarket and Kalshi. The directive follows the prosecution of a Special Forces soldier accused of making more than $400,000 on Polymarket by betting on a mission to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Hegseth's rationale is a national-security concern: a bet on a military outcome creates a market signal adversaries can read. 'Our enemies watch movements in these markets,' the memo states.
Read more →Crypto.com and Novig Sue Missouri as Market Leaders Hold Back โ Eighth Circuit Now in Play via Iowa
Crypto.com and Novig filed federal lawsuits on October 16 challenging Missouri's cease-and-desist orders, arguing their sports event contracts fall under exclusive CFTC jurisdiction. The suits came as Missouri's 30-day compliance window closed. Notably, the market leaders โ Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Underdog โ have not sued; Missouri said it is in 'ongoing discussions' with Kalshi. The outcome is tied to the Eighth Circuit, now weighing the same question in Kalshi's Iowa appeal โ the fourth federal circuit to take up the prediction market question.
Read more →Ohio Escalates Post-Sixth Circuit โ Cease-and-Desist to 10 Operators, but Platforms Keep Operating
Emboldened by its Sixth Circuit win, Ohio escalated enforcement. Governor Mike DeWine and the Ohio Casino Control Commission issued cease-and-desist letters dated October 2 to 10 operators, including Polymarket and Robinhood, with an October 16 deadline and penalties up to the value gained from contracts. Kalshi was excluded because a court order already covers it. As of October 20, platforms were still operating in Ohio despite the deadline. Polymarket has sued the Commission and AG Andy Wilson; Wilson is expected to sue non-compliant operators.
Read more →Midterm Election Betting Tops $220M โ Double the Entire 2024 Cycle โ as Public Opposition Mounts
Traders have wagered more than $220 million on the 2026 US congressional midterms across Kalshi and Polymarket, more than double the $92 million bet across the entire 2024 cycle, according to a Reuters analysis of Anti-Corruption Data Collective data published October 14. The 2026 cycle has more than 21,000 individual markets, up from 463 in 2024. Volume is concentrated in a few races, led by the Texas Senate contest. The growth comes despite a Reuters/Ipsos poll finding most Americans oppose using prediction markets to bet on elections.
Read more →Taiwan and Norway Move Against Kalshi โ International Blocks Spread on Two Different Legal Theories
International enforcement against prediction markets accelerated in mid-October. A New Taipei District Court ordered Taiwan to block Kalshi and Coinbase on October 15 under Taiwan's election law, which prohibits profit-driven gambling tied to election results, roughly six weeks before Taiwan's November 28 local elections. Separately, Norway's regulator Lotteritilsynet proposed DNS-blocking 62 unlicensed sites including Kalshi and Polymarket, with operators given until October 15 to respond. The two actions rest on different legal theories โ election-integrity law in Taiwan, gambling-licensing law in Norway.
Read more →Google Adds Prediction Market Ad Policy โ CFTC License Required, Ads Blocked in Five States
Google published a dedicated prediction markets section in its advertising policy on October 15, requiring domestic operators to hold a CFTC Designated Contract Market licence to run ads โ favouring Kalshi and Polymarket US over unlicensed rivals. Google also bars prediction market ads targeting five states where enforcement is most active: Connecticut, Michigan, New York, Ohio, and Nevada. The policy makes Google's ad platform mirror the state enforcement map, using commercial access as a de facto regulatory layer.
Read more →Kalshi Partners With Signify to Police Athlete Harassment, Codifies Anti-Abuse Rule
Kalshi announced a partnership with Signify Group on October 15 to monitor social media for abuse and threats directed at athletes, coaches, and sports personnel across the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and ATP Tour. Kalshi notified the CFTC of a new rule, dated October 13, codifying athlete harassment as an 'impermissible activity', with sanctions up to financial penalties and permanent account closure. The move follows a September appeal by five major leagues and their players' unions for lifetime bans on abusive bettors.
Read more →CFTC Moves to Classify Event Contracts as Swaps โ Attempting to Settle the Core SCOTUS Question by Rule
The CFTC, led by Chairman Michael Selig, moved on October 9 to explicitly classify event contracts as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, placing prediction market contracts under federal swap regulation. The scope covers sports, political, cultural, and weather contracts, while a separate provision excludes casino-style gambling and sportsbook wagers. Selig said the aim is to remove 'any ambiguity.' The action targets the exact question dividing the federal circuits and now before the Supreme Court โ whether event contracts are 'swaps.'
Read more →Seminole Tribe Sues DraftKings as 145 Tribal Governments Urge SCOTUS to Act โ But Tribes Are Split
The Seminole Tribe of Florida sued DraftKings on October 8 in Broward County court, alleging DraftKings' Pick6 and sports event contracts operate as unlicensed sportsbooks that violate the Tribe's exclusive sports betting rights under its 2021 Florida gaming compact. The same week, roughly 130 federally recognised tribes and 15 tribal organisations filed a Supreme Court amicus brief urging the Court to hear the Kalshi case, citing IGRA and unauthorised gaming on Indian lands. But the tribal community is split: several California tribes and an Oklahoma tribe have instead partnered with Kalshi.
Read more →State Pressure Forces First Real Pullbacks โ Smaller Operators Exit Connecticut and Missouri
State enforcement is starting to produce concrete market exits rather than just litigation. Three operators โ ProphetX, Gemini, and Webull โ have withdrawn from Connecticut following cease-and-desist orders to nine companies. In Missouri, PrizePicks proactively suspended new Team Picks sports event contracts ahead of the October 18 compliance deadline, despite not receiving a cease-and-desist letter. The pullbacks reveal a split: smaller operators exit contested states to avoid legal risk, while Kalshi and Polymarket hold firm on the federal preemption argument.
Read more →Trump Jr.'s Firm Invests $300M in Polymarket While He Advises Both Platforms โ Raising Conflict Questions
Donald Trump Jr.'s venture firm 1789 Capital has invested a reported $300 million in Polymarket, making it one of the platform's top equity holders, while Trump Jr. is also a paid adviser to both Polymarket and Kalshi. The dual position places him on both sides of the regulated prediction market rivalry as the Trump administration's CFTC actively sues states to defend the platforms' federal jurisdiction. Separately, Kalshi's founders donated $200,000 to a Texas PAC a week after state lawmakers held hearings on whether prediction markets are illegal sports betting.
Read more →NFL, 39 State AGs, and Cabazon Tribe Urge SCOTUS to Hear Kalshi Case as Kalshi Delays Response to November 9
October 8 was the amicus brief deadline in New Jersey's Supreme Court petition (Flaherty v. KalshiEX), producing a wave of filings urging the Court to take the case. The NFL argued sports event contracts are gambling, not swaps. Ohio led 39 state attorneys general and DC; the Cabazon Band of Mission Indians โ whose 1987 Supreme Court case established the modern tribal gaming framework โ also filed. Meanwhile the Court granted Kalshi a 30-day extension to respond, moving its deadline from October 8 to November 9 and pushing any cert decision toward December or early 2027.
Read more →Sports Leagues Split on Prediction Markets: NFL Fights in Court While MLB, NHL, and MLS Sign Deals
The NFL's October 8 Supreme Court brief against Kalshi highlighted a growing divide among US sports leagues over prediction markets. The NFL is a staunch holdout, now opposing the platforms in court. By contrast, MLB named Polymarket its exclusive prediction market partner in March in a deal reportedly worth $150-300 million over three years; the NHL licenses to both Kalshi and Polymarket; and MLS signed an exclusive Polymarket deal in January. The NBA is reportedly close to agreements. The leagues are taking opposite bets on whether prediction markets are an opportunity or a threat.
Read more →FCA Confirms Talks With Kalshi and Polymarket Over UK Entry
FCA markets chief Simon Walls confirmed on October 6 that the UK regulator is in talks with prediction market operators including Kalshi and Polymarket about potential UK entry. The discussions come as the FCA weighs whether to ease the retail binary options ban in force since April 2019. The platforms argue their products are not binary options or gambling, because they do not set odds, do not profit from customer losses, and match orders on a central limit order book. The UK's openness contrasts sharply with enforcement by Czech, Belgian, French, German, Spanish, and Romanian regulators.
Read more →Kalshi Launches US 500 Stock-Index Perpetual Future โ First of Its Kind in US Markets
Kalshi launched a stock-index perpetual future on October 6, tracking a proprietary 'US 500' index of the 500 largest US companies. The product allows leveraged long or short positions on US equity index exposure with funding rates, and never expires. It is the first US-regulated stock-index perpetual, following Kalshi's crypto and CFTC-approved gold and silver perpetuals. The launch extends Kalshi's push to compete with traditional brokerages, as prediction market Q3 2026 volume reached a reported $188 billion, up roughly 70% quarter-on-quarter.
Read more →International Gambling Regulators Ask SCOTUS to Take the Prediction Market Case
The International Association of Gaming Regulators (IAGR) and the North American Gaming Regulators Association (NAGRA) filed with the Supreme Court on October 3 supporting New Jersey's cert petition, urging the Court to resolve the prediction market preemption question. The filing adds the gambling regulatory community's institutional weight to a coalition that already includes 20-plus states, gaming-state lawmakers, and the Robinhood and Crypto.com cert petitions.
Read more →Polymarket Prepares US Relaunch With POLY Token and Airdrop to Follow
Polymarket is preparing to relaunch for US users this month through QCX, the CFTC-registered exchange it acquired in 2025, and has confirmed plans for a native POLY token and airdrop to follow the US return. The token is described as utility-focused, with 5-10% of supply reserved for an airdrop limited to verified active users by trading history โ no farming. The US relaunch is the priority; the token follows once the US app is operational.
Read more →Survey: 79% of Prediction Market Users Lost Money, Half Borrowed to Fund Bets
A BadCredit.org survey found that 79% of prediction market users lost money over the past year, with 27% losing more than $500. It also found 51% borrowed money โ credit card, loan, or other โ to fund trades, and 88% of those borrowers lost. Over half (53%) started using the platforms to earn extra income or because they were struggling financially. The findings offer consumer-harm evidence that contrasts with the platforms' investment-tool framing and may be cited by state regulators.
Read more →Czech Republic Blocks Kalshi From October 15 โ Polymarket Already Blocked Since July
The Czech Ministry of Finance listed Kalshi as an unauthorised gambling operator on September 30, requiring ISPs to block it by October 15. Polymarket was similarly blocked in July 2026. Both major US prediction market platforms are now blocked or under active enforcement in at least six European jurisdictions: Czech Republic, Belgium, France, Romania, Spain, and Germany. European regulators treat prediction market sports contracts as gambling regardless of CFTC regulatory status.
Read more →SCOTUS Publishes First Orders List โ No Prediction Market Cases Granted Yet
The Supreme Court published its first orders list of the new term on October 2 โ three cases granted, no prediction market cases. The absence was expected: Kalshi's response briefs to the New Jersey and Robinhood petitions are still pending. The Court typically conferences petitions a few weeks after all responses are in. Legal observers expect a prediction market cert decision in late October or November 2026.
Read more →Kalshi Finalising $1 Billion Raise at $40 Billion Valuation Ahead of IPO
Bloomberg reported on September 30 that Kalshi is finalising a new $1 billion funding round at a ~$40 billion valuation โ the company's last planned private round before an IPO expected as early as 2027. Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management lead; Tiger Global and Dragoneer also participating. Kalshi was valued at $11 billion in December 2025 and $22 billion in March 2026 โ a near four-fold increase in under a year. Polymarket closed a $1 billion round in September at a $15-20 billion valuation.
Read more →Record $71B Volume Overshadowed by Wash-Trading Scrutiny โ Kalshi Ends Liquidity Incentive Program
Kalshi and Polymarket posted a record combined $71 billion in September 2026 volume, but the milestone was overshadowed by questions about how much is genuine. The Wall Street Journal reported the CFTC is examining repeated ~$5,500 trades on Kalshi that generated over $5 billion in Ethereum perpetual volume in a month โ over a third of Kalshi's ETH volume. Polymarket faced questions over suspiciously high volume on low-probability World Cup contracts. Kalshi denied wash trading and filed on September 30 to end its liquidity incentive programme.
Read more →Sixth Circuit Joins Ninth Against Kalshi โ Ohio and Tennessee Can Regulate Sports Contracts
The Sixth Circuit ruled unanimously on September 25 that Ohio and Tennessee can apply their gambling laws to Kalshi's sports event contracts โ the second circuit loss for Kalshi in a month. The panel held the contracts are not 'swaps' under the CEA, and alternatively that the CEA doesn't preempt state gambling law even if they are. The circuit split is now 2-1 against Kalshi (Third Circuit for; Sixth and Ninth against), sharply increasing the pressure on the Supreme Court to take the case.
Read more →Kalshi Suspends Congressional Candidate for Trading on Own Race โ Senate Already Banned Members
Kalshi suspended North Carolina candidate Laurie Buckhout for three years on August 31 for trading on her own congressional race โ the first known candidate enforcement action. A broader Kalshi investigation found multiple politicians trading on their own races including George Santos. The Senate unanimously banned members and staff from prediction market trading on April 30. A CNN feature on September 24 documents election officials' concerns about disinformation and insider trading risk as the 3 November midterms approach.
Read more →New York Sues Polymarket for Unlicensed Gambling โ Polymarket Files Immediate Counter-Suit
New York AG Letitia James and Governor Hochul sued Polymarket US on September 24 for alleged unlicensed gambling and allowing 18-20-year-old users in violation of New York's 21+ requirement. Polymarket filed a counter-suit in Manhattan federal court the same day. The action mirrors the July 31 Kalshi lawsuit under which New York seeks $36B+. New York is now pursuing both dominant CFTC-registered prediction market operators simultaneously.
Read more →Pew Research: Prediction Market Volume Doubled May-July, Sports Now Largest Category
Pew Research Centre published an analysis on September 23 finding that combined monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket doubled from $26 billion in May to $53 billion in July 2026, driven by sports contracts. Sports is now the largest category on both platforms. The FIFA World Cup drove Kalshi to $58 billion in monthly sports volume in June-July. Americans wagered roughly $40 billion at licensed sportsbooks in Q1 2026 โ roughly matching prediction market sports volume in the same period.
Read more →Kalshi Files for CFTC Approval to Allow Margin Trading on Economic and Political Contracts
Kalshi Klear filed a CFTC application on September 22 under Regulation 40.5(a) to introduce margin trading for institutional participants on event contracts covering economic data, financial developments, politics, and commercial activity. Sports contracts, culture markets, and mentions markets are excluded. If the CFTC does not object within 45 days, the programme could begin as early as November 6. The proposal would allow eligible participants to hold leveraged positions rather than fully collateralising each contract.
Read more →Democrats Now 60% Senate, 90% House Favourites on Prediction Markets โ Biggest Shift Since 2024
Kalshi and Polymarket have moved sharply toward Democratic control of both US congressional chambers ahead of the 3 November midterms. Democrats are priced at ~60% to win the Senate and ~90% to win the House. Republicans held 80%+ Senate control odds when markets opened in November 2024. The shift started in February 2026 with the Iran war and has accelerated with rising gas prices and declining Trump approval ratings.
Read more →SCOTUS September 28 Long Conference: First Opportunity to Take the Prediction Market Case
The Supreme Court's September 28 'long conference' โ its first sitting of the new term โ is the first formal opportunity for justices to consider cert petitions from New Jersey (filed 2 Sep, Third Circuit) and Robinhood (filed 9 Sep, Ninth Circuit). Kalshi has 30 days to respond to NJ's petition. Polymarket prices a 46% chance SCOTUS accepts by year end. Most analyst projections place a cert decision between November and December 2026.
Read more →Missouri AG Sends Cease-and-Desist Letters to Six Prediction Market Operators
Missouri AG Catherine Hanaway issued cease-and-desist letters on September 18 to Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, Crypto.com, Novig, and Underdog โ the broadest single-state enforcement sweep yet. The letters give platforms 30 days to comply or obtain state gambling licences. Missouri alleges sports event contracts are unlicensed sports wagering. One day earlier, Montana agreed to pause its own Kalshi enforcement pending the Ninth Circuit en banc process.
Read more →Yahoo Finance Ends Polymarket Data Partnership After Five Months
Yahoo Finance and Polymarket ended their exclusive prediction market data partnership on September 18, five months after announcing it in November 2025. The dedicated Polymarket hub on Yahoo Finance was taken down in April 2026 after a two-month run. No reason disclosed. Yahoo Finance retains an advertising relationship with Polymarket. The partnership's failure is a setback for Polymarket's mainstream financial media distribution strategy.
Read more →Montana and Kalshi Reach Joint Stipulation โ State Pauses Enforcement Pending Ninth Circuit En Banc
Kalshi dismissed its lawsuit against Montana on September 17 after both parties filed a joint stipulation in which Montana agreed to pause all enforcement pending the outcome of Kalshi's en banc petition at the Ninth Circuit. Montana must give 30 days notice before resuming once the en banc window closes. The agreement mirrors the Robinhood-Michigan stipulation of September 4 and reflects a pattern of negotiated appellate-linked pauses.
Read more →Fed Hikes 25bp for First Time Since 2023 โ Prediction Markets Priced It at 81% vs CME Futures at 64%
The Federal Reserve raised rates 25bp to 3.75%-4% on September 16 โ unanimous 12-0 vote โ after core inflation beat expectations in August. Fed Chair Warsh said inflation remains too high. Sixteen of 18 officials expect at least one more hike. Prediction markets on Kalshi had priced the hike at 81%; CME fed funds futures implied 64%. Prediction markets were right, and led CME's pricing by days throughout the forecasting window.
Read more →CLARITY Act Senate Cloture Vote Fails โ Crypto Regulatory Framework Dead for 2026
The US Senate failed to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act on September 15, falling short of the 60-vote cloture threshold. The bill, which would have clarified CFTC vs SEC jurisdiction over digital assets, is dead for 2026. Prediction markets correctly priced passage at 20-30%. The failure means the CFTC vs states conflict over prediction market sports contracts must be resolved by courts, not Congress โ putting the Supreme Court's handling of the NJ and Robinhood petitions at the centre of the regulatory endgame.
Read more →Prediction Markets Hit $14.1B in NFL Kickoff Week โ Kalshi Holds 92% Market Share
Combined weekly volume across Kalshi and Polymarket reached $14.1 billion in the first full NFL regular season week (7-13 September). Kalshi held 92% of the combined total at $12.98 billion; Polymarket Global recorded $1.11 billion. Kalshi's NFL-specific volume hit $983 million for the week. Non-sports categories posted a sixth consecutive weekly record at $10 billion. Full-season NFL projection: $57 billion across all platforms.
Read more →Kalshi Launches Gold and Silver Perpetual Futures After CFTC Approval โ First Non-Crypto Perps Cleared in the US
The CFTC approved and Kalshi launched perpetual futures on gold and silver on September 10 โ the first non-cryptocurrency perps to receive US regulatory clearance. Contracts are cash-settled, perpetual, and 24/7. Kalshi has pending applications for US equities, copper, and currencies. Crypto perps have done $44 billion in notional volume since May. The launches put Kalshi in direct competition with CME and COMEX as US commodity trading venues.
Read more →Robinhood Agrees to Exit Michigan Sports Contracts by October 9 โ Court-Approved Deal Described as Blueprint
Robinhood Derivatives agreed on September 4, under a court-approved stipulation, to stop new Michigan sports event contracts by September 9 and close positions by October 9. Michigan will not enforce gambling laws against Robinhood while it complies. The deal preserves Robinhood's CEA preemption argument and keeps Sixth Circuit appeals on track. Legal Sports Report called it a potential blueprint for similar interim accommodations between platforms and states.
Read more →DICE ETF Launches on Cboe Giving Retail Investors Pre-IPO Access to Kalshi and Polymarket
Tema ETFs launched DICE (Tema Trading & Prediction Markets ETF) on Cboe on September 9 โ the first ETF offering retail exposure to private companies Kalshi and Polymarket before their IPOs. Each platform is held at approximately 7.3% via an SPV. The fund also holds Robinhood and Coinbase. Expense ratio: 0.75%. Tema cites the Bernstein $1 trillion annual volume projection by 2030 as the fund thesis.
Read more →Kalshi Seeks Ninth Circuit En Banc Rehearing While Robinhood Files Separate SCOTUS Petition
Kalshi petitioned the full Ninth Circuit (11 judges) for en banc rehearing of the August 28 3-0 ruling for Nevada on September 9. On the same day, Robinhood filed a separate SCOTUS certiorari petition from the same ruling, going directly to the Supreme Court. New Jersey already has a SCOTUS petition filed from the Third Circuit's April ruling. Two cert petitions now sit before SCOTUS on the prediction market question.
Read more →Polymarket Launches 20x Leveraged Perpetual Futures Across 67 Markets โ International Users Only
Polymarket launched Polymarket Perps on September 3 โ perpetual futures with up to 20x leverage across 67 markets covering stocks, crypto, indices, and commodities. Available internationally only; US users are blocked under the same jurisdiction restrictions that separate Polymarket International from the CFTC-regulated US platform. The launch puts Polymarket in direct competition with Binance Futures and dYdX and marks a significant expansion beyond binary prediction markets.
Read more →New Jersey Files 332-Page SCOTUS Petition โ First State to Ask Supreme Court to Rule on Prediction Markets
New Jersey AG Jennifer Davenport filed a 332-page Supreme Court petition on September 2, formally asking SCOTUS to rule on whether Dodd-Frank preempts state regulation of sports bets on CFTC-registered prediction market platforms. NJ is the losing party from the Third Circuit's April ruling for Kalshi. With the Ninth Circuit's August 28 ruling against Kalshi in direct conflict, the petition presents a textbook circuit split. Kalshi has 30 days to respond; SCOTUS has 90 days to decide whether to grant review.
Read more →Massachusetts Supreme Court Ruling on Kalshi Now Imminent โ First State High Court Decision on Prediction Markets
The Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court is expected to rule within weeks on whether Kalshi's sports event contracts constitute illegal sports gambling under state law โ the first time any US state supreme court has decided this question. The SJC appeared skeptical of Kalshi's CFTC-preemption argument at May 5 oral arguments. A coalition of 38 state attorneys general backed Massachusetts; the CFTC backed Kalshi. The outcome will be the first state apex court ruling on prediction markets anywhere in the country.
Read more →27 States Back California Tribes Suing Kalshi Over Sports Contracts Under Indian Gaming Law
Three California tribes are pursuing a separate Ninth Circuit case against Kalshi's sports contracts under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act โ a 1988 federal law governing tribal gaming rights that is independent of the CEA preemption arguments in the Nevada, NJ, and Connecticut cases. The Ninth Circuit refused consolidation with the Nevada case. A panel appeared skeptical of Kalshi in July. 27 states plus DC filed amicus supporting the tribes.
Read more →SCOTUS Review of Prediction Markets Hits 64% on Polymarket โ New Jersey Files Cert Petition September 3
Polymarket's contract on Supreme Court review of prediction markets by year-end jumped from 30% to 64% within hours of the Ninth Circuit's August 28 ruling, generating $976K in volume. New Jersey files its certiorari petition September 3. The Third Circuit vs Ninth Circuit split on the same statutory question is the clearest available trigger for SCOTUS to take the case.
Read more →Ninth Circuit Rules 3-0: Kalshi's Sports Contracts Are Not Swaps โ States Can Regulate Them as Gambling
A unanimous Ninth Circuit panel has ruled Kalshi's sports event contracts are not 'swaps' under federal law and that states can regulate them as gambling โ directly contradicting the Third Circuit's April ruling in Kalshi's favour. The decision covers nine western states including California. New Jersey is preparing a Supreme Court petition. The NFL regular season opens September 4.
Read more →Connecticut Files State Court Suit Against Kalshi โ Ex Parte TRO Denied, Kalshi Counter-Sues the Next Day
Connecticut AG William Tong and Governor Ned Lamont filed a state court suit against Kalshi for unlicensed sports gambling, seeking injunction, disgorgement, and civil penalties. The ex parte TRO request was denied. Kalshi counter-sued the following day. Connecticut now has two simultaneous cases: this state court action and the federal D. Conn. PI denial already on appeal at the Second Circuit.
Read more →Polymarket Pulls NFL Player Participation Contracts After CFTC Request โ Kalshi Proceeds
Polymarket self-certified NFL player participation markets on August 25 โ including a Patrick Mahomes Week 1 availability contract โ then withdrew them the next day after the CFTC asked platforms to remove them. Kalshi kept its equivalent markets live, arguing 'will this player play?' is a participation question, not an injury contract. The NFL called injury-related prediction markets 'inherently objectionable.' The CFTC's own rules proposal would ban contracts settling solely on injuries. The episode draws the sharpest product strategy divergence between the two platforms ahead of the September 4 NFL season opener.
Read more →NFL Preseason Prediction Market Volume Hits $167.8M in One Week โ Up 324% as Sports Season Begins
NFL prediction market volume hit $167.8 million in the week ending August 16, up 324% week-on-week. Preseason game contracts drove 85.5% of the total. One game on Kalshi hit $19.4M; Super Bowl LXI futures have accumulated $59M+. The regular season opens September 4 โ the commercial test every major platform CEO has flagged as 2026's growth milestone.
Read more →CFTC's Innovation Advisory Committee Holds Inaugural Meeting โ Self-Certification Splits CME and Kalshi as Manipulation Risk Takes Centre Stage
The CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee's first meeting featured a live dispute over self-certification: CME CEO Terry Duffy argued it has allowed thousands of contracts to reach markets without scrutiny; Kalshi's Luana Lopes Lara defended it as essential to platform speed. Both Kalshi's Tarek Mansour and Polymarket's Shayne Coplan held seats on the committee. Public submissions close August 27.
Read more →Cantor Fitzgerald Opens Kalshi's Event Contracts to 3,000 Institutional Clients โ Wall Street's First Block Trading Service for Prediction Markets
Cantor Fitzgerald has launched institutional block trading on Kalshi, acting as introducing broker for ~3,000 institutional clients with Susquehanna Predictions providing liquidity. Initial contracts cover weather, commodity prices, earnings, iPhone sales, and AI supply chain risks. Bernstein estimates $1 trillion annual volume by end of decade. The launch marks Wall Street's first formal institutional access service for prediction markets.
Read more →JPMorgan Cut Polymarket's Banking Ties in October 2025 Over Regulatory Concerns โ and Still Wants to Underwrite Its IPO
JPMorgan Chase terminated Polymarket's banking relationship in October 2025 over regulatory concerns, the Financial Times reports, while simultaneously positioning itself for a potential IPO underwriting role. The debanking occurred before Polymarket re-entered the US market. Polymarket disputes the characterisation, saying it retains a 'close, active relationship' with JPMorgan on operational matters.
Read more →Baltimore Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood and Webull for Unlicensed Sports Betting โ First Municipal Lawsuit Against Prediction Markets
Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott has filed suits naming Kalshi (plus Coinbase, Robinhood, Webull as distributors) and Polymarket for violating the city's Consumer Protection Ordinance. The complaints allege unlicensed sports betting, avoidance of Maryland's 15% gaming tax, 21+ age requirements, and claim that 'combos' function as parlays. Baltimore is the first US municipality to sue prediction market platforms.
Read more →Harry Kane Is the 41% Favourite for the 2026 Ballon d'Or on Polymarket โ Lamine Yamal Surges After World Cup
Polymarket has Harry Kane at 41% and Kalshi near 42% to win the 2026 Ballon d'Or, reflecting his 73-goal 2025-26 season and Bayern Munich's domestic double. Lamine Yamal has surged to 26-35% on the back of Spain's World Cup victory. The ceremony is October 26 in London.
Read more →Kalshi's Double Geofencing Deadline Passes as NFL Preseason Begins โ Michigan and Nevada Both Required GeoComply by August 12
The August 12 geofencing deadline in both Michigan and Nevada passed on the same day the NFL preseason kicked off. Kalshi was required to implement GeoComply's commercial geolocation system in both states โ Michigan imposing $500,000/day fines, Nevada $120,000/day. The dual compliance crunch arrives as NFL-season prediction market volume surges: $59M+ in Super Bowl futures already, 100,000+ Kalshi downloads in 30 days.
Read more →Washington Judge Expands Kalshi Injunction โ Sports, Elections, Politics, Entertainment and 'Mentions' Markets Must All Stop by September 2
King County Superior Court has issued a detailed compliance order requiring Kalshi to geofence sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture, tech/science, and 'mentions' markets from Washington residents by September 2. Financial, commodities, climate, and economics markets survive. The Washington Court of Appeals denied Kalshi's stay request. The NFL season starts September 4 โ two days after the compliance deadline.
Read more →Connecticut Federal Court Denies Kalshi's PI โ With a Novel Argument: Sports Event Contracts Are Not 'Swaps' at All
A Connecticut federal judge has denied Kalshi's preliminary injunction request, allowing the state to enforce gambling laws against its sports contracts. Judge Oliver's ruling introduces a new legal theory: sports event contracts are not 'swaps' under the Commodity Exchange Act at all, because they depend on event outcomes rather than whether an event occurs. Kalshi has appealed to the Second Circuit, which now has two simultaneous Kalshi appeals that may be consolidated. The ruling conflicts directly with a Third Circuit ruling from April.
Read more →FlightAware Sues Kalshi Over Flight Cancellation Markets โ Alleging Unauthorized Data Use, Trademark Infringement, and Aviation Safety Risk
FlightAware has sued Kalshi over flight cancellation prediction markets that use its data without permission, naming it as the verification source without any commercial agreement. The lawsuit alleges breach of contract, trademark infringement, and unfair competition, and seeks a TRO and injunctions. FlightAware also argues the markets create financial incentives for unsafe interference with aviation. The case introduces a data rights challenge distinct from the state gambling law disputes that have dominated prediction market litigation.
Read more →Prediction Markets Hit Wall Street Earnings Season: DraftKings at $11B Annualized Volume, Robinhood at $156M Revenue, Coinbase at $100M+
DraftKings, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Flutter all reported prediction market figures in Q2 2026 earnings. DraftKings grew annualized volume from $2.3B to $11B in three months. Robinhood's Rothera exchange generated $156M in event contracts revenue in its first partial quarter. Coinbase reported 106% quarter-over-quarter growth, surpassing $100M annualized. Flutter is moving FanDuel Predicts from CME to Crypto.com ahead of the NFL season.
Read more →Kalshi and Polymarket Are Now Taking Bets on Clinical Trials. Researchers Say That Is a Structural Integrity Problem.
Kalshi and Polymarket have begun offering prediction market contracts on the outcomes of clinical drug trials and US FDA approval decisions. Clinical trial investigators say the markets create direct financial incentives for people with trial access โ pharmacists, coordinators, researchers โ to tamper with results. Kalshi argues the markets are no different from biotech short sellers in the stock market. Critics describe the entire category as 'ghastly.'
Read more →Polymarket Becomes the ATP Tour's Official Prediction Market Provider โ With Sportradar Supplying Integrity Monitoring
Polymarket has agreed a deal with Tennis Data Innovations, the ATP Tour's data and streaming joint venture, to become the tour's official prediction market provider. Sportradar โ the dominant tennis integrity data provider used by UK bookmakers and the Tennis Integrity Unit โ will supply official live data, odds, and integrity monitoring. The deal covers 20,000 matches per season. It is Polymarket's second major official data and streaming deal in two days.
Read more →Polymarket Becomes Official Prediction Market Partner of the New York Yankees โ One Week After Novig Did the Same With the Mets
Polymarket has announced a partnership with the New York Yankees as the club's official prediction market partner for the rest of the 2026 MLB season. The deal includes stadium signage, home plate LED branding during televised games, and fan activations. It follows the New York Mets partnering with Novig on 30 July โ meaning both New York MLB franchises now have an official prediction market partner within eight days of one another.
Read more →Polymarket Partners With Genius Sports for Live Streaming, Official Settlement Data, and Integrity Monitoring
Polymarket has partnered with Genius Sports โ the official data and streaming provider for the NFL, NCAA, Serie A, and dozens of other leagues โ for Polymarket's CFTC-regulated US platform. The deal provides exclusive live streaming rights, official event data for contract settlement, and access to Genius Sports' league integrity information-sharing infrastructure. It makes Polymarket the first CFTC-regulated prediction market to integrate live sports streaming with real-time event contracts.
Read more →Oregon Senators Ask CFTC to Ban Wildfire Betting โ Citing Arson Risk and the $1.2 Million Wagered on the LA Fires
Oregon's senators and a public coalition have formally urged CFTC Chair Michael Selig to prohibit prediction market platforms from offering contracts on active wildfires. The demand follows reports of $1.2 million in Polymarket bets on the January 2025 LA fires, which killed 31 people. Fire officials warn wildfire betting creates a direct incentive for arson. The CFTC has until August 14 to respond.
Read more →IG Group Buys Underdog for $1.3 Billion โ The First Major Foreign Acquisition of a US Prediction Market Exchange
IG Group, the UK-listed financial trading platform, has agreed to acquire Underdog for approximately $1.3 billion โ 13 days after Underdog launched its own CFTC-licensed exchange. The deal gives IG Group a US designated contract market and clearing organisation, making it the first international financial firm to acquire a licensed US prediction market venue. Underdog is currently the third-largest US prediction market by regulated notional volume.
Read more →Kalshi Settles Nevada Contempt Case โ Agrees to GeoComply Geofencing as Hearing Is Canceled
Kalshi has reached a settlement with the Nevada Gaming Control Board, canceling contempt proceedings triggered by evidence that NGCB investigators successfully purchased prohibited contracts eight times while physically inside Nevada. Under the deal, Kalshi must deploy a GeoComply-based geofencing system by August 12 or face $120,000-per-day fines. The settlement also defines the geofencing standard: a commercial multi-source system from a recognized vendor, not an in-house IP-blocking tool.
Read more →An Independent Integrity Body Found 7 Betting Irregularities at the World Cup. FIFA Said There Were None. The Clash Centres on Polymarket.
The Group of Copenhagen โ the Council of Europe's independent match manipulation watchdog โ raised seven yellow notices for potential betting irregularities during the 2026 World Cup, directly contradicting FIFA's all-clear published on Tuesday. The most troubling finding involves Polymarket: the platform opened a market on 2 July asking whether Folarin Balogun would play against Belgium โ the same day Balogun received a red card, three days before FIFA publicly confirmed his ban was suspended. No equivalent markets were opened for any of the other 14 red cards at the tournament.
Read more →After Tuesday's Hearing, Congress Looks Ready to Legislate on Prediction Markets โ Not Just Watch
The House Agriculture Subcommittee held a two-hour hearing on 22 July examining sports event contracts, with witnesses from the American Gaming Association, tribal gaming, and both sides of the CFTC authority debate. Chair Dusty Johnson said Congress 'cannot afford to be silent' and signalled there is 'work for them to do.' Witnesses urged members to advance H.R. 7840, the Event Contract Enforcement Act, which would ban sports event contracts outright.
Read more →Bloomberg Found $200 Million in Suspicious Wagers on Kalshi and Polymarket. An Army Sergeant Has Already Been Indicted.
A Bloomberg investigation identified approximately $200 million in suspicious wagers on Kalshi and Polymarket between January and June 2026, concentrated in geopolitical event markets. A US Army Master Sergeant has been indicted for using classified information about the operation that captured Venezuelan President Maduro to generate $409,000 in profit. 57% of unusually successful wallets were created within 24 hours of placing their bets. The House Oversight Committee has launched a formal investigation.
Read more →Congress Is Holding a Hearing on Whether Prediction Markets Are Sports Bets โ With No Prediction Market Companies in the Room
The House Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing on Tuesday 22 July on the status of sports event contracts, featuring the American Gaming Association, tribal gaming interests, and former CFTC attorneys โ but no representatives from Kalshi, Polymarket, or any other prediction market platform. The AGA will argue that sports event contracts are sports bets. The hearing comes as Kalshi's World Cup winner market hit a record $1.9 billion in total volume.
Read more →Washington State Becomes the 11th: Judge Rules Kalshi Likely Ran an Illegal Gambling Operation
King County Superior Court Judge John McHale granted Washington state a preliminary injunction against Kalshi on 21 July, ruling the platform likely operated an illegal gambling operation under state law. McHale rejected Kalshi's CFTC-preemption defence. He asked both sides to present a compliance plan by the first week of August. Washington is the 11th state to take legal action โ and the fourth where a court has ruled against Kalshi, after Michigan, Nevada, and New York.
Read more →The Argentina-Spain World Cup Final Became the Biggest Single-Match Prediction Market Contract in History
The Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Final at MetLife Stadium on 19 July produced the largest single-match event contract ever on a US prediction market exchange. Trading on Kalshi's Argentina-Spain winner market topped $1.27 billion โ surpassing the Super Bowl, NBA Finals, and every prior US sports contract. Kalshi's total World Cup trading reached $40 billion across the tournament, and the platform added 3 million new users.
Read more →Underdog Launches Its Own CFTC-Licensed Prediction Market Exchange โ Ending Its Reliance on Kalshi
Underdog, the sports prediction and fantasy operator, launched its own federally licensed prediction market exchange on 18 July 2026, after acquiring two CFTC-registered entities in March. Underdog was the first sports gaming company to offer prediction market access (through Kalshi and Crypto.com) in autumn 2025. Going direct gives it full vertical control. The platform has $6.49 billion in cumulative notional volume โ third in the market behind Kalshi and Robinhood.
Read more →The CFTC Told Kalshi to Defy a State Court Order โ and Kalshi Is Caught in the Middle
Michigan's Judge Aquilina extended Kalshi's sports-contract ban through 12 August on 13 July, raising the daily fine to $500,000. The next day, CFTC Chairman Selig used emergency authority under the Commodity Exchange Act to order Kalshi to continue honouring Michigan trades โ directly contradicting the state court's order. Kalshi is now caught between two conflicting legal mandates.
Read more →Prediction Markets Handled 10x More Than US Bookmakers During the World Cup โ and a Third Exchange Just Entered the Race
Prediction market platforms combined for over $50 billion in trading volume in June 2026 as the FIFA World Cup drove the sector's most active month on record โ roughly ten times the volume projected for US legal sportsbooks across the entire 104-match tournament. ADI Predictstreet, the FIFA official prediction market partner, co-branded with Kalshi in stadiums and on Fox Sports. Rothera, the Robinhood and Susquehanna joint venture, processed $2 billion in its debut month.
Read more →Gibraltar Just Created the World's First Dedicated Prediction Market Regulatory Framework
Gibraltar's Prediction Market Regulations 2026 came into force on 13 July, making it the first jurisdiction in the world to create a standalone regulatory category for prediction markets โ explicitly separate from gambling law. Licensed operators ADI Predictstreet and WagerWire received the first approvals. The framework allows stablecoins, restricts death and terrorism contracts, and is designed as a potential European standard.
Read more →Kalshi Launches Pro: a Professional Trading Terminal That Signals What the Platform Is Becoming
Kalshi released Kalshi Pro on 13 July 2026 โ a free professional trading terminal built on TradingView charts with a multi-market Canvas layout, take-profit/stop-loss orders, reduce-only orders, a max-slippage guard, and margin-risk alerts. It covers both prediction markets and crypto perpetual futures, and is the clearest signal yet that Kalshi is evolving from a consumer app into a full-service derivatives exchange.
Read more →Italy Re-Bans Polymarket โ Putting a $22m Lazio FC Sponsorship Deal Under Italian Criminal Law
Italy's Customs and Monopolies Agency (ADM) added Polymarket to its blacklist for the second time in July 2026, re-classifying it as an unlicensed gambling operator. Polymarket had won a court reversal in late 2025 before the TAR Lazio. The renewed block threatens Polymarket's $22 million Lazio FC sponsorship: Italian law prohibits clubs from advertising unlicensed betting, potentially forcing Lazio to drop the partnership.
Read more →Kalshi Loses New York Ruling: Federal Licence Does Not Override State Gambling Law
US District Judge Analisa Torres of the Southern District of New York denied Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction on 7 July, ruling that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt New York's gambling enforcement. The decision hands state regulators another win and opens a second federal circuit on prediction market law. Kalshi appealed to the Second Circuit the same day.
Read more →Kalshi Is Now Blocking Michigan Users โ and Faces a Nevada Contempt Hearing on 16 July
Prediction market litigation has crossed from courtrooms to actual platform access restrictions. A Michigan state court issued a temporary restraining order on 29 June requiring Kalshi to halt sports contracts until 13 July โ $120,000-per-day fines for non-compliance โ and Kalshi began geofencing Michigan users on 7 July. Nevada is seeking to hold Kalshi in contempt after investigators purchased prohibited contracts eight times while in the state. Polymarket filed its first independent federal lawsuit, against New Mexico.
Read more →Kalshi's June Volume Hit $9.4bn โ Its Best Month Ever โ With Daily Trading Topping $1bn During the World Cup
Kalshi recorded $9.4 billion in trading volume in June 2026, up from $5.3 billion in May and the platform's highest monthly total ever. Total notional volume exceeded $31 billion, and daily activity consistently topped $1 billion during the World Cup. Canada vs. Morocco alone drew $48 million on Kalshi and $26.8 million on Polymarket.
Read more →Spotify to Kalshi and Polymarket: Remove Our Logo โ Traders Pumped Streams to Win a $3M Bet
Spotify identified over 500,000 artificial streams injected into Malcolm Todd's song 'Earrings' to manipulate its US chart position, then sent formal letters on 2 July demanding that Kalshi and Polymarket remove its branding. The manipulation targeted a $3M Kalshi market on the most-streamed song in the US for June. Kalshi had already paid out bettors before the fraud was confirmed.
Read more →Google Bans Prediction Market Extensions From Chrome โ Effective 1 August, the Same Day as Minnesota's Felony Ban
Google announced on 1 July that it will ban Chrome Web Store extensions that facilitate real-money trading on prediction markets, effective 1 August 2026. The policy update is the second Google action against prediction markets in a month, following an Ohio advertising ban in June, and it coincides with Minnesota's felony ban on prediction-market operators โ unless a federal court enjoins it first.
Read more →Meta Tried to Buy Kalshi. Talks Broke Down. Now Zuckerberg Is Building His Own โ With Play Money.
NPR reported on 30 June that Meta's Mark Zuckerberg held acquisition talks with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour last year, but negotiations never advanced. Meta is now building its own prediction market app called Arena, which will use play money only. Separately, Bernstein named Kalshi and Polymarket as likely M&A targets for DraftKings, Robinhood, or Coinbase.
Read more →Polymarket Hits $1bn in Annualised Revenue โ and Gets a CFTC Investigation on the Same Day
Six weeks after opening its US exchange to the public, Polymarket's annualised revenue surpassed $1 billion on 26 June 2026, with daily trading volume climbing from $50 million in mid-May to over $200 million. The milestone landed the same day CNBC and Bloomberg reported the CFTC is conducting a broad investigation into Polymarket โ the same agency currently suing nine states to defend prediction markets in court.
Read more →Kalshi Has $6.7bn in World Cup Volume โ Bank of America Now Estimates $12-13bn by the Final
Two weeks into the 2026 FIFA World Cup, Kalshi reports $6.7 billion in total World Cup trading volume, with a Bank of America analyst note estimating the platform will reach $12-13 billion by the 19 July final. Polymarket's soccer category crossed $2 billion in its first ten days, a 300% jump on pre-tournament levels. The numbers already eclipse the most optimistic pre-tournament projections.
Read more →Kalshi Is Seeking a $40 Billion Valuation โ Seven Weeks After Raising at $22 Billion
Kalshi is in talks for a new funding round at a $40 billion valuation, nearly doubling its May 2026 Series F figure, according to the Financial Times. Annualised revenue has crossed $2 billion and CEO Tarek Mansour confirmed early IPO discussions โ though not before 2027. Combined Kalshi and Polymarket volume hit $44.8 billion in June, a 75% jump from May.
Read more →Michigan Judge Rules Sports Contracts Likely Aren't Swaps โ the First Real Crack in the CFTC Preemption Wall
US District Judge Paul Maloney denied Polymarket and Robinhood a preliminary injunction on 19 June 2026, ruling that sports event contracts are likely not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that CFTC authority would 'sweep in activity that has traditionally belonged to state regulators.' It is the first significant court loss for the prediction-market side and turns the scattered district-court rulings into a Sixth Circuit split.
Read more →Kalshi Goes International: Wealthsimple to Bring ~4,000 Event Contracts to Canadian Retail Investors
Kalshi announced its first international expansion on 18 June 2026: a partnership with Canadian fintech Wealthsimple to launch Wealthsimple Predict, a standalone app giving Canadian traders access to roughly 4,000 Kalshi event contracts in climate, financial markets, and economic indicators. Sports and elections contracts are excluded under CIRO's March 2026 authorisation.
Read more →CFTC's 267-Page Proposed Rule Would Allow Most Sports Contracts โ But Bans Single-Play, Injury, and Officiating Bets
The CFTC's proposed prediction-market rule hit the Federal Register on 12 June 2026, opening a 45-day comment window closing 27 July. It permits sports event contracts on final scores, point differentials, win-loss, tournament advancement, and statistical performance โ but disallows single-play, in-game-fight, injury, officiating, and pre-collegiate contracts via a new three-step public-interest test.
Read more →CFTC Sues New Mexico โ Eighth State in the Federal Preemption Fight, and the First Filed After the Proposed Rule Dropped
The CFTC sued New Mexico on 12 June 2026 to block the state from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction markets, days after AG Raรบl Torrez sued Kalshi for offering unlicensed online sports betting. New Mexico is the eighth state the agency has sued. The complaint is the first to land after the CFTC's own proposed rule was released this week โ a rule that explicitly supports most sports-related event contracts.
Read more →ProphetX Wins CFTC DCM and DCO Approval โ the Sweepstakes-to-Prediction-Market Conversion Wave Begins
ProphetX, the former state-licensed sportsbook turned sweepstakes exchange, won CFTC approval this week for both a Designated Contract Market and a derivatives clearing organisation, and will convert to a sports prediction market early next week. It is the first of an expected wave of sweepstakes operators โ Novig and Sporttrade have applications pending โ pivoting to federal regulation as states ban sweepstakes apps.
Read more →Google Bans Prediction-Market Ads in Ohio โ Second State After Nevada, and Regulators Weren't Told First
Google updated its US prediction-markets advertising policy to prohibit ads for prediction-market contracts in Ohio, effective 2 June 2026. Ohio joins Nevada as the only states excluded since Google opened the category in January. The Ohio Casino Control Commission says it did not request the ban โ adding a new, private-sector front to a fight that has so far run through courts and statehouses.
Read more →Kalshi Scrubs 'Bookmaking' and 'Sports Betting' From Its USPTO Filings โ the Vocabulary Is Now a Legal Strategy
Kalshi's May trademark filings replaced the gambling terminology of its November 2025 USPTO submissions โ which described 'bookmaking services' and 'sports betting and gambling tournaments' โ with 'prediction market services' and 'trades and wagers.' The reframing lands while six state preemption suits, a pending CFTC rule, and a Congressional insider-trading probe all turn on exactly one question: is this product a financial instrument or a bet?
Read more →The 2026 World Cup Is the First Mega-Event for US Prediction Markets โ Kalshi and Polymarket Hit Record $7bn Weekly Volume Going In
The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off 11 June in Mexico City with global wagers projected to top $50 billion โ the biggest betting event in history. It is also the first World Cup where US traders can use prediction markets at full scale: Kalshi and Polymarket entered the week at a record $7 billion in combined weekly volume, and Kalshi lists nearly 500 tournament markets.
Read more →DraftKings Predictions Hits $1.3bn Annualised Consumer Volume in May; Railbird DCM and Combos Reshape the Competitive Field
DraftKings reported in an 8-K filing on 9 June 2026 that DraftKings Predictions ran $1.3bn in annualised consumer volume in May, +24% month-on-month, with $3.1bn in annualised total volume. The company is investing $200-300m in prediction markets in 2026 and will launch its own DCM (Railbird), in-house exchange technology, and a Super App before year-end.
Read more →Polymarket Completes First Block Trade โ Six-Figure FalconX/Anera Labs Hedge on Nvidia H100 GPU Pricing
Polymarket cleared its first institutional block trade on 2 June 2026 โ a six-figure position between digital-asset brokerage FalconX and AI-risk startup Anera Labs on the Ornn Compute Price Index tracking Nvidia H100 rental rates. FalconX has signed on as dedicated market maker. Polymarket trails Kalshi by a month on this milestone but claims the first on-chain institutional prediction-market trade.
Read more →CFTC's Proposed Prediction-Markets Rule Reaches White House OMB Review; Trump Posts Public Support
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission submitted a formal proposed rule for prediction-market regulation to the White House Office of Management and Budget on 26 May 2026. President Trump posted explicit support on social media, framing CFTC exclusive jurisdiction as critical infrastructure for the industry.
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