Prediction Markets
News
CFTC rulings, platform launches, and regulatory shifts: everything that moves the prediction market landscape.
Recent updates
Google Bans Prediction-Market Ads in Ohio — Second State After Nevada, and Regulators Weren't Told First
Google updated its US prediction-markets advertising policy to prohibit ads for prediction-market contracts in Ohio, effective 2 June 2026. Ohio joins Nevada as the only states excluded since Google opened the category in January. The Ohio Casino Control Commission says it did not request the ban — adding a new, private-sector front to a fight that has so far run through courts and statehouses.
Read more →Kalshi Scrubs 'Bookmaking' and 'Sports Betting' From Its USPTO Filings — the Vocabulary Is Now a Legal Strategy
Kalshi's May trademark filings replaced the gambling terminology of its November 2025 USPTO submissions — which described 'bookmaking services' and 'sports betting and gambling tournaments' — with 'prediction market services' and 'trades and wagers.' The reframing lands while six state preemption suits, a pending CFTC rule, and a Congressional insider-trading probe all turn on exactly one question: is this product a financial instrument or a bet?
Read more →The 2026 World Cup Is the First Mega-Event for US Prediction Markets — Kalshi and Polymarket Hit Record $7bn Weekly Volume Going In
The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off 11 June in Mexico City with global wagers projected to top $50 billion — the biggest betting event in history. It is also the first World Cup where US traders can use prediction markets at full scale: Kalshi and Polymarket entered the week at a record $7 billion in combined weekly volume, and Kalshi lists nearly 500 tournament markets.
Read more →DraftKings Predictions Hits $1.3bn Annualised Consumer Volume in May; Railbird DCM and Combos Reshape the Competitive Field
DraftKings reported in an 8-K filing on 9 June 2026 that DraftKings Predictions ran $1.3bn in annualised consumer volume in May, +24% month-on-month, with $3.1bn in annualised total volume. The company is investing $200-300m in prediction markets in 2026 and will launch its own DCM (Railbird), in-house exchange technology, and a Super App before year-end.
Read more →Polymarket Completes First Block Trade — Six-Figure FalconX/Anera Labs Hedge on Nvidia H100 GPU Pricing
Polymarket cleared its first institutional block trade on 2 June 2026 — a six-figure position between digital-asset brokerage FalconX and AI-risk startup Anera Labs on the Ornn Compute Price Index tracking Nvidia H100 rental rates. FalconX has signed on as dedicated market maker. Polymarket trails Kalshi by a month on this milestone but claims the first on-chain institutional prediction-market trade.
Read more →CFTC's Proposed Prediction-Markets Rule Reaches White House OMB Review; Trump Posts Public Support
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission submitted a formal proposed rule for prediction-market regulation to the White House Office of Management and Budget on 26 May 2026. President Trump posted explicit support on social media, framing CFTC exclusive jurisdiction as critical infrastructure for the industry.
Read more →