Prediction Markets
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CFTC rulings, platform launches, and regulatory shifts: everything that moves the prediction market landscape.
Recent updates
Kalshi Launches Gold and Silver Perpetual Futures After CFTC Approval โ First Non-Crypto Perps Cleared in the US
The CFTC approved and Kalshi launched perpetual futures on gold and silver on September 10 โ the first non-cryptocurrency perps to receive US regulatory clearance. Contracts are cash-settled, perpetual, and 24/7. Kalshi has pending applications for US equities, copper, and currencies. Crypto perps have done $44 billion in notional volume since May. The launches put Kalshi in direct competition with CME and COMEX as US commodity trading venues.
Read more →Robinhood Agrees to Exit Michigan Sports Contracts by October 9 โ Court-Approved Deal Described as Blueprint
Robinhood Derivatives agreed on September 4, under a court-approved stipulation, to stop new Michigan sports event contracts by September 9 and close positions by October 9. Michigan will not enforce gambling laws against Robinhood while it complies. The deal preserves Robinhood's CEA preemption argument and keeps Sixth Circuit appeals on track. Legal Sports Report called it a potential blueprint for similar interim accommodations between platforms and states.
Read more →Kalshi Seeks Ninth Circuit En Banc Rehearing While Robinhood Files Separate SCOTUS Petition
Kalshi petitioned the full Ninth Circuit (11 judges) for en banc rehearing of the August 28 3-0 ruling for Nevada on September 9. On the same day, Robinhood filed a separate SCOTUS certiorari petition from the same ruling, going directly to the Supreme Court. New Jersey already has a SCOTUS petition filed from the Third Circuit's April ruling. Two cert petitions now sit before SCOTUS on the prediction market question.
Read more →Polymarket Launches 20x Leveraged Perpetual Futures Across 67 Markets โ International Users Only
Polymarket launched Polymarket Perps on September 3 โ perpetual futures with up to 20x leverage across 67 markets covering stocks, crypto, indices, and commodities. Available internationally only; US users are blocked under the same jurisdiction restrictions that separate Polymarket International from the CFTC-regulated US platform. The launch puts Polymarket in direct competition with Binance Futures and dYdX and marks a significant expansion beyond binary prediction markets.
Read more →New Jersey Files 332-Page SCOTUS Petition โ First State to Ask Supreme Court to Rule on Prediction Markets
New Jersey AG Jennifer Davenport filed a 332-page Supreme Court petition on September 2, formally asking SCOTUS to rule on whether Dodd-Frank preempts state regulation of sports bets on CFTC-registered prediction market platforms. NJ is the losing party from the Third Circuit's April ruling for Kalshi. With the Ninth Circuit's August 28 ruling against Kalshi in direct conflict, the petition presents a textbook circuit split. Kalshi has 30 days to respond; SCOTUS has 90 days to decide whether to grant review.
Read more →Massachusetts Supreme Court Ruling on Kalshi Now Imminent โ First State High Court Decision on Prediction Markets
The Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court is expected to rule within weeks on whether Kalshi's sports event contracts constitute illegal sports gambling under state law โ the first time any US state supreme court has decided this question. The SJC appeared skeptical of Kalshi's CFTC-preemption argument at May 5 oral arguments. A coalition of 38 state attorneys general backed Massachusetts; the CFTC backed Kalshi. The outcome will be the first state apex court ruling on prediction markets anywhere in the country.
Read more →27 States Back California Tribes Suing Kalshi Over Sports Contracts Under Indian Gaming Law
Three California tribes are pursuing a separate Ninth Circuit case against Kalshi's sports contracts under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act โ a 1988 federal law governing tribal gaming rights that is independent of the CEA preemption arguments in the Nevada, NJ, and Connecticut cases. The Ninth Circuit refused consolidation with the Nevada case. A panel appeared skeptical of Kalshi in July. 27 states plus DC filed amicus supporting the tribes.
Read more →SCOTUS Review of Prediction Markets Hits 64% on Polymarket โ New Jersey Files Cert Petition September 3
Polymarket's contract on Supreme Court review of prediction markets by year-end jumped from 30% to 64% within hours of the Ninth Circuit's August 28 ruling, generating $976K in volume. New Jersey files its certiorari petition September 3. The Third Circuit vs Ninth Circuit split on the same statutory question is the clearest available trigger for SCOTUS to take the case.
Read more →Ninth Circuit Rules 3-0: Kalshi's Sports Contracts Are Not Swaps โ States Can Regulate Them as Gambling
A unanimous Ninth Circuit panel has ruled Kalshi's sports event contracts are not 'swaps' under federal law and that states can regulate them as gambling โ directly contradicting the Third Circuit's April ruling in Kalshi's favour. The decision covers nine western states including California. New Jersey is preparing a Supreme Court petition. The NFL regular season opens September 4.
Read more →Connecticut Files State Court Suit Against Kalshi โ Ex Parte TRO Denied, Kalshi Counter-Sues the Next Day
Connecticut AG William Tong and Governor Ned Lamont filed a state court suit against Kalshi for unlicensed sports gambling, seeking injunction, disgorgement, and civil penalties. The ex parte TRO request was denied. Kalshi counter-sued the following day. Connecticut now has two simultaneous cases: this state court action and the federal D. Conn. PI denial already on appeal at the Second Circuit.
Read more →Polymarket Pulls NFL Player Participation Contracts After CFTC Request โ Kalshi Proceeds
Polymarket self-certified NFL player participation markets on August 25 โ including a Patrick Mahomes Week 1 availability contract โ then withdrew them the next day after the CFTC asked platforms to remove them. Kalshi kept its equivalent markets live, arguing 'will this player play?' is a participation question, not an injury contract. The NFL called injury-related prediction markets 'inherently objectionable.' The CFTC's own rules proposal would ban contracts settling solely on injuries. The episode draws the sharpest product strategy divergence between the two platforms ahead of the September 4 NFL season opener.
Read more →NFL Preseason Prediction Market Volume Hits $167.8M in One Week โ Up 324% as Sports Season Begins
NFL prediction market volume hit $167.8 million in the week ending August 16, up 324% week-on-week. Preseason game contracts drove 85.5% of the total. One game on Kalshi hit $19.4M; Super Bowl LXI futures have accumulated $59M+. The regular season opens September 4 โ the commercial test every major platform CEO has flagged as 2026's growth milestone.
Read more →CFTC's Innovation Advisory Committee Holds Inaugural Meeting โ Self-Certification Splits CME and Kalshi as Manipulation Risk Takes Centre Stage
The CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee's first meeting featured a live dispute over self-certification: CME CEO Terry Duffy argued it has allowed thousands of contracts to reach markets without scrutiny; Kalshi's Luana Lopes Lara defended it as essential to platform speed. Both Kalshi's Tarek Mansour and Polymarket's Shayne Coplan held seats on the committee. Public submissions close August 27.
Read more →Cantor Fitzgerald Opens Kalshi's Event Contracts to 3,000 Institutional Clients โ Wall Street's First Block Trading Service for Prediction Markets
Cantor Fitzgerald has launched institutional block trading on Kalshi, acting as introducing broker for ~3,000 institutional clients with Susquehanna Predictions providing liquidity. Initial contracts cover weather, commodity prices, earnings, iPhone sales, and AI supply chain risks. Bernstein estimates $1 trillion annual volume by end of decade. The launch marks Wall Street's first formal institutional access service for prediction markets.
Read more →JPMorgan Cut Polymarket's Banking Ties in October 2025 Over Regulatory Concerns โ and Still Wants to Underwrite Its IPO
JPMorgan Chase terminated Polymarket's banking relationship in October 2025 over regulatory concerns, the Financial Times reports, while simultaneously positioning itself for a potential IPO underwriting role. The debanking occurred before Polymarket re-entered the US market. Polymarket disputes the characterisation, saying it retains a 'close, active relationship' with JPMorgan on operational matters.
Read more →Baltimore Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood and Webull for Unlicensed Sports Betting โ First Municipal Lawsuit Against Prediction Markets
Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott has filed suits naming Kalshi (plus Coinbase, Robinhood, Webull as distributors) and Polymarket for violating the city's Consumer Protection Ordinance. The complaints allege unlicensed sports betting, avoidance of Maryland's 15% gaming tax, 21+ age requirements, and claim that 'combos' function as parlays. Baltimore is the first US municipality to sue prediction market platforms.
Read more →Harry Kane Is the 41% Favourite for the 2026 Ballon d'Or on Polymarket โ Lamine Yamal Surges After World Cup
Polymarket has Harry Kane at 41% and Kalshi near 42% to win the 2026 Ballon d'Or, reflecting his 73-goal 2025-26 season and Bayern Munich's domestic double. Lamine Yamal has surged to 26-35% on the back of Spain's World Cup victory. The ceremony is October 26 in London.
Read more →Kalshi's Double Geofencing Deadline Passes as NFL Preseason Begins โ Michigan and Nevada Both Required GeoComply by August 12
The August 12 geofencing deadline in both Michigan and Nevada passed on the same day the NFL preseason kicked off. Kalshi was required to implement GeoComply's commercial geolocation system in both states โ Michigan imposing $500,000/day fines, Nevada $120,000/day. The dual compliance crunch arrives as NFL-season prediction market volume surges: $59M+ in Super Bowl futures already, 100,000+ Kalshi downloads in 30 days.
Read more →Washington Judge Expands Kalshi Injunction โ Sports, Elections, Politics, Entertainment and 'Mentions' Markets Must All Stop by September 2
King County Superior Court has issued a detailed compliance order requiring Kalshi to geofence sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture, tech/science, and 'mentions' markets from Washington residents by September 2. Financial, commodities, climate, and economics markets survive. The Washington Court of Appeals denied Kalshi's stay request. The NFL season starts September 4 โ two days after the compliance deadline.
Read more →Connecticut Federal Court Denies Kalshi's PI โ With a Novel Argument: Sports Event Contracts Are Not 'Swaps' at All
A Connecticut federal judge has denied Kalshi's preliminary injunction request, allowing the state to enforce gambling laws against its sports contracts. Judge Oliver's ruling introduces a new legal theory: sports event contracts are not 'swaps' under the Commodity Exchange Act at all, because they depend on event outcomes rather than whether an event occurs. Kalshi has appealed to the Second Circuit, which now has two simultaneous Kalshi appeals that may be consolidated. The ruling conflicts directly with a Third Circuit ruling from April.
Read more →FlightAware Sues Kalshi Over Flight Cancellation Markets โ Alleging Unauthorized Data Use, Trademark Infringement, and Aviation Safety Risk
FlightAware has sued Kalshi over flight cancellation prediction markets that use its data without permission, naming it as the verification source without any commercial agreement. The lawsuit alleges breach of contract, trademark infringement, and unfair competition, and seeks a TRO and injunctions. FlightAware also argues the markets create financial incentives for unsafe interference with aviation. The case introduces a data rights challenge distinct from the state gambling law disputes that have dominated prediction market litigation.
Read more →Prediction Markets Hit Wall Street Earnings Season: DraftKings at $11B Annualized Volume, Robinhood at $156M Revenue, Coinbase at $100M+
DraftKings, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Flutter all reported prediction market figures in Q2 2026 earnings. DraftKings grew annualized volume from $2.3B to $11B in three months. Robinhood's Rothera exchange generated $156M in event contracts revenue in its first partial quarter. Coinbase reported 106% quarter-over-quarter growth, surpassing $100M annualized. Flutter is moving FanDuel Predicts from CME to Crypto.com ahead of the NFL season.
Read more →Kalshi and Polymarket Are Now Taking Bets on Clinical Trials. Researchers Say That Is a Structural Integrity Problem.
Kalshi and Polymarket have begun offering prediction market contracts on the outcomes of clinical drug trials and US FDA approval decisions. Clinical trial investigators say the markets create direct financial incentives for people with trial access โ pharmacists, coordinators, researchers โ to tamper with results. Kalshi argues the markets are no different from biotech short sellers in the stock market. Critics describe the entire category as 'ghastly.'
Read more →Polymarket Becomes the ATP Tour's Official Prediction Market Provider โ With Sportradar Supplying Integrity Monitoring
Polymarket has agreed a deal with Tennis Data Innovations, the ATP Tour's data and streaming joint venture, to become the tour's official prediction market provider. Sportradar โ the dominant tennis integrity data provider used by UK bookmakers and the Tennis Integrity Unit โ will supply official live data, odds, and integrity monitoring. The deal covers 20,000 matches per season. It is Polymarket's second major official data and streaming deal in two days.
Read more →Polymarket Becomes Official Prediction Market Partner of the New York Yankees โ One Week After Novig Did the Same With the Mets
Polymarket has announced a partnership with the New York Yankees as the club's official prediction market partner for the rest of the 2026 MLB season. The deal includes stadium signage, home plate LED branding during televised games, and fan activations. It follows the New York Mets partnering with Novig on 30 July โ meaning both New York MLB franchises now have an official prediction market partner within eight days of one another.
Read more →Polymarket Partners With Genius Sports for Live Streaming, Official Settlement Data, and Integrity Monitoring
Polymarket has partnered with Genius Sports โ the official data and streaming provider for the NFL, NCAA, Serie A, and dozens of other leagues โ for Polymarket's CFTC-regulated US platform. The deal provides exclusive live streaming rights, official event data for contract settlement, and access to Genius Sports' league integrity information-sharing infrastructure. It makes Polymarket the first CFTC-regulated prediction market to integrate live sports streaming with real-time event contracts.
Read more →Oregon Senators Ask CFTC to Ban Wildfire Betting โ Citing Arson Risk and the $1.2 Million Wagered on the LA Fires
Oregon's senators and a public coalition have formally urged CFTC Chair Michael Selig to prohibit prediction market platforms from offering contracts on active wildfires. The demand follows reports of $1.2 million in Polymarket bets on the January 2025 LA fires, which killed 31 people. Fire officials warn wildfire betting creates a direct incentive for arson. The CFTC has until August 14 to respond.
Read more →IG Group Buys Underdog for $1.3 Billion โ The First Major Foreign Acquisition of a US Prediction Market Exchange
IG Group, the UK-listed financial trading platform, has agreed to acquire Underdog for approximately $1.3 billion โ 13 days after Underdog launched its own CFTC-licensed exchange. The deal gives IG Group a US designated contract market and clearing organisation, making it the first international financial firm to acquire a licensed US prediction market venue. Underdog is currently the third-largest US prediction market by regulated notional volume.
Read more →Kalshi Settles Nevada Contempt Case โ Agrees to GeoComply Geofencing as Hearing Is Canceled
Kalshi has reached a settlement with the Nevada Gaming Control Board, canceling contempt proceedings triggered by evidence that NGCB investigators successfully purchased prohibited contracts eight times while physically inside Nevada. Under the deal, Kalshi must deploy a GeoComply-based geofencing system by August 12 or face $120,000-per-day fines. The settlement also defines the geofencing standard: a commercial multi-source system from a recognized vendor, not an in-house IP-blocking tool.
Read more →An Independent Integrity Body Found 7 Betting Irregularities at the World Cup. FIFA Said There Were None. The Clash Centres on Polymarket.
The Group of Copenhagen โ the Council of Europe's independent match manipulation watchdog โ raised seven yellow notices for potential betting irregularities during the 2026 World Cup, directly contradicting FIFA's all-clear published on Tuesday. The most troubling finding involves Polymarket: the platform opened a market on 2 July asking whether Folarin Balogun would play against Belgium โ the same day Balogun received a red card, three days before FIFA publicly confirmed his ban was suspended. No equivalent markets were opened for any of the other 14 red cards at the tournament.
Read more →After Tuesday's Hearing, Congress Looks Ready to Legislate on Prediction Markets โ Not Just Watch
The House Agriculture Subcommittee held a two-hour hearing on 22 July examining sports event contracts, with witnesses from the American Gaming Association, tribal gaming, and both sides of the CFTC authority debate. Chair Dusty Johnson said Congress 'cannot afford to be silent' and signalled there is 'work for them to do.' Witnesses urged members to advance H.R. 7840, the Event Contract Enforcement Act, which would ban sports event contracts outright.
Read more →Bloomberg Found $200 Million in Suspicious Wagers on Kalshi and Polymarket. An Army Sergeant Has Already Been Indicted.
A Bloomberg investigation identified approximately $200 million in suspicious wagers on Kalshi and Polymarket between January and June 2026, concentrated in geopolitical event markets. A US Army Master Sergeant has been indicted for using classified information about the operation that captured Venezuelan President Maduro to generate $409,000 in profit. 57% of unusually successful wallets were created within 24 hours of placing their bets. The House Oversight Committee has launched a formal investigation.
Read more →Congress Is Holding a Hearing on Whether Prediction Markets Are Sports Bets โ With No Prediction Market Companies in the Room
The House Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing on Tuesday 22 July on the status of sports event contracts, featuring the American Gaming Association, tribal gaming interests, and former CFTC attorneys โ but no representatives from Kalshi, Polymarket, or any other prediction market platform. The AGA will argue that sports event contracts are sports bets. The hearing comes as Kalshi's World Cup winner market hit a record $1.9 billion in total volume.
Read more →Washington State Becomes the 11th: Judge Rules Kalshi Likely Ran an Illegal Gambling Operation
King County Superior Court Judge John McHale granted Washington state a preliminary injunction against Kalshi on 21 July, ruling the platform likely operated an illegal gambling operation under state law. McHale rejected Kalshi's CFTC-preemption defence. He asked both sides to present a compliance plan by the first week of August. Washington is the 11th state to take legal action โ and the fourth where a court has ruled against Kalshi, after Michigan, Nevada, and New York.
Read more →The Argentina-Spain World Cup Final Became the Biggest Single-Match Prediction Market Contract in History
The Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Final at MetLife Stadium on 19 July produced the largest single-match event contract ever on a US prediction market exchange. Trading on Kalshi's Argentina-Spain winner market topped $1.27 billion โ surpassing the Super Bowl, NBA Finals, and every prior US sports contract. Kalshi's total World Cup trading reached $40 billion across the tournament, and the platform added 3 million new users.
Read more →Underdog Launches Its Own CFTC-Licensed Prediction Market Exchange โ Ending Its Reliance on Kalshi
Underdog, the sports prediction and fantasy operator, launched its own federally licensed prediction market exchange on 18 July 2026, after acquiring two CFTC-registered entities in March. Underdog was the first sports gaming company to offer prediction market access (through Kalshi and Crypto.com) in autumn 2025. Going direct gives it full vertical control. The platform has $6.49 billion in cumulative notional volume โ third in the market behind Kalshi and Robinhood.
Read more →The CFTC Told Kalshi to Defy a State Court Order โ and Kalshi Is Caught in the Middle
Michigan's Judge Aquilina extended Kalshi's sports-contract ban through 12 August on 13 July, raising the daily fine to $500,000. The next day, CFTC Chairman Selig used emergency authority under the Commodity Exchange Act to order Kalshi to continue honouring Michigan trades โ directly contradicting the state court's order. Kalshi is now caught between two conflicting legal mandates.
Read more →Prediction Markets Handled 10x More Than US Bookmakers During the World Cup โ and a Third Exchange Just Entered the Race
Prediction market platforms combined for over $50 billion in trading volume in June 2026 as the FIFA World Cup drove the sector's most active month on record โ roughly ten times the volume projected for US legal sportsbooks across the entire 104-match tournament. ADI Predictstreet, the FIFA official prediction market partner, co-branded with Kalshi in stadiums and on Fox Sports. Rothera, the Robinhood and Susquehanna joint venture, processed $2 billion in its debut month.
Read more →Gibraltar Just Created the World's First Dedicated Prediction Market Regulatory Framework
Gibraltar's Prediction Market Regulations 2026 came into force on 13 July, making it the first jurisdiction in the world to create a standalone regulatory category for prediction markets โ explicitly separate from gambling law. Licensed operators ADI Predictstreet and WagerWire received the first approvals. The framework allows stablecoins, restricts death and terrorism contracts, and is designed as a potential European standard.
Read more →Kalshi Launches Pro: a Professional Trading Terminal That Signals What the Platform Is Becoming
Kalshi released Kalshi Pro on 13 July 2026 โ a free professional trading terminal built on TradingView charts with a multi-market Canvas layout, take-profit/stop-loss orders, reduce-only orders, a max-slippage guard, and margin-risk alerts. It covers both prediction markets and crypto perpetual futures, and is the clearest signal yet that Kalshi is evolving from a consumer app into a full-service derivatives exchange.
Read more →Italy Re-Bans Polymarket โ Putting a $22m Lazio FC Sponsorship Deal Under Italian Criminal Law
Italy's Customs and Monopolies Agency (ADM) added Polymarket to its blacklist for the second time in July 2026, re-classifying it as an unlicensed gambling operator. Polymarket had won a court reversal in late 2025 before the TAR Lazio. The renewed block threatens Polymarket's $22 million Lazio FC sponsorship: Italian law prohibits clubs from advertising unlicensed betting, potentially forcing Lazio to drop the partnership.
Read more →Kalshi Loses New York Ruling: Federal Licence Does Not Override State Gambling Law
US District Judge Analisa Torres of the Southern District of New York denied Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction on 7 July, ruling that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt New York's gambling enforcement. The decision hands state regulators another win and opens a second federal circuit on prediction market law. Kalshi appealed to the Second Circuit the same day.
Read more →Kalshi Is Now Blocking Michigan Users โ and Faces a Nevada Contempt Hearing on 16 July
Prediction market litigation has crossed from courtrooms to actual platform access restrictions. A Michigan state court issued a temporary restraining order on 29 June requiring Kalshi to halt sports contracts until 13 July โ $120,000-per-day fines for non-compliance โ and Kalshi began geofencing Michigan users on 7 July. Nevada is seeking to hold Kalshi in contempt after investigators purchased prohibited contracts eight times while in the state. Polymarket filed its first independent federal lawsuit, against New Mexico.
Read more →Kalshi's June Volume Hit $9.4bn โ Its Best Month Ever โ With Daily Trading Topping $1bn During the World Cup
Kalshi recorded $9.4 billion in trading volume in June 2026, up from $5.3 billion in May and the platform's highest monthly total ever. Total notional volume exceeded $31 billion, and daily activity consistently topped $1 billion during the World Cup. Canada vs. Morocco alone drew $48 million on Kalshi and $26.8 million on Polymarket.
Read more →Spotify to Kalshi and Polymarket: Remove Our Logo โ Traders Pumped Streams to Win a $3M Bet
Spotify identified over 500,000 artificial streams injected into Malcolm Todd's song 'Earrings' to manipulate its US chart position, then sent formal letters on 2 July demanding that Kalshi and Polymarket remove its branding. The manipulation targeted a $3M Kalshi market on the most-streamed song in the US for June. Kalshi had already paid out bettors before the fraud was confirmed.
Read more →Google Bans Prediction Market Extensions From Chrome โ Effective 1 August, the Same Day as Minnesota's Felony Ban
Google announced on 1 July that it will ban Chrome Web Store extensions that facilitate real-money trading on prediction markets, effective 1 August 2026. The policy update is the second Google action against prediction markets in a month, following an Ohio advertising ban in June, and it coincides with Minnesota's felony ban on prediction-market operators โ unless a federal court enjoins it first.
Read more →Meta Tried to Buy Kalshi. Talks Broke Down. Now Zuckerberg Is Building His Own โ With Play Money.
NPR reported on 30 June that Meta's Mark Zuckerberg held acquisition talks with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour last year, but negotiations never advanced. Meta is now building its own prediction market app called Arena, which will use play money only. Separately, Bernstein named Kalshi and Polymarket as likely M&A targets for DraftKings, Robinhood, or Coinbase.
Read more →Polymarket Hits $1bn in Annualised Revenue โ and Gets a CFTC Investigation on the Same Day
Six weeks after opening its US exchange to the public, Polymarket's annualised revenue surpassed $1 billion on 26 June 2026, with daily trading volume climbing from $50 million in mid-May to over $200 million. The milestone landed the same day CNBC and Bloomberg reported the CFTC is conducting a broad investigation into Polymarket โ the same agency currently suing nine states to defend prediction markets in court.
Read more →Kalshi Has $6.7bn in World Cup Volume โ Bank of America Now Estimates $12-13bn by the Final
Two weeks into the 2026 FIFA World Cup, Kalshi reports $6.7 billion in total World Cup trading volume, with a Bank of America analyst note estimating the platform will reach $12-13 billion by the 19 July final. Polymarket's soccer category crossed $2 billion in its first ten days, a 300% jump on pre-tournament levels. The numbers already eclipse the most optimistic pre-tournament projections.
Read more →Kalshi Is Seeking a $40 Billion Valuation โ Seven Weeks After Raising at $22 Billion
Kalshi is in talks for a new funding round at a $40 billion valuation, nearly doubling its May 2026 Series F figure, according to the Financial Times. Annualised revenue has crossed $2 billion and CEO Tarek Mansour confirmed early IPO discussions โ though not before 2027. Combined Kalshi and Polymarket volume hit $44.8 billion in June, a 75% jump from May.
Read more →Michigan Judge Rules Sports Contracts Likely Aren't Swaps โ the First Real Crack in the CFTC Preemption Wall
US District Judge Paul Maloney denied Polymarket and Robinhood a preliminary injunction on 19 June 2026, ruling that sports event contracts are likely not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that CFTC authority would 'sweep in activity that has traditionally belonged to state regulators.' It is the first significant court loss for the prediction-market side and turns the scattered district-court rulings into a Sixth Circuit split.
Read more →Kalshi Goes International: Wealthsimple to Bring ~4,000 Event Contracts to Canadian Retail Investors
Kalshi announced its first international expansion on 18 June 2026: a partnership with Canadian fintech Wealthsimple to launch Wealthsimple Predict, a standalone app giving Canadian traders access to roughly 4,000 Kalshi event contracts in climate, financial markets, and economic indicators. Sports and elections contracts are excluded under CIRO's March 2026 authorisation.
Read more →CFTC's 267-Page Proposed Rule Would Allow Most Sports Contracts โ But Bans Single-Play, Injury, and Officiating Bets
The CFTC's proposed prediction-market rule hit the Federal Register on 12 June 2026, opening a 45-day comment window closing 27 July. It permits sports event contracts on final scores, point differentials, win-loss, tournament advancement, and statistical performance โ but disallows single-play, in-game-fight, injury, officiating, and pre-collegiate contracts via a new three-step public-interest test.
Read more →CFTC Sues New Mexico โ Eighth State in the Federal Preemption Fight, and the First Filed After the Proposed Rule Dropped
The CFTC sued New Mexico on 12 June 2026 to block the state from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction markets, days after AG Raรบl Torrez sued Kalshi for offering unlicensed online sports betting. New Mexico is the eighth state the agency has sued. The complaint is the first to land after the CFTC's own proposed rule was released this week โ a rule that explicitly supports most sports-related event contracts.
Read more →ProphetX Wins CFTC DCM and DCO Approval โ the Sweepstakes-to-Prediction-Market Conversion Wave Begins
ProphetX, the former state-licensed sportsbook turned sweepstakes exchange, won CFTC approval this week for both a Designated Contract Market and a derivatives clearing organisation, and will convert to a sports prediction market early next week. It is the first of an expected wave of sweepstakes operators โ Novig and Sporttrade have applications pending โ pivoting to federal regulation as states ban sweepstakes apps.
Read more →Google Bans Prediction-Market Ads in Ohio โ Second State After Nevada, and Regulators Weren't Told First
Google updated its US prediction-markets advertising policy to prohibit ads for prediction-market contracts in Ohio, effective 2 June 2026. Ohio joins Nevada as the only states excluded since Google opened the category in January. The Ohio Casino Control Commission says it did not request the ban โ adding a new, private-sector front to a fight that has so far run through courts and statehouses.
Read more →Kalshi Scrubs 'Bookmaking' and 'Sports Betting' From Its USPTO Filings โ the Vocabulary Is Now a Legal Strategy
Kalshi's May trademark filings replaced the gambling terminology of its November 2025 USPTO submissions โ which described 'bookmaking services' and 'sports betting and gambling tournaments' โ with 'prediction market services' and 'trades and wagers.' The reframing lands while six state preemption suits, a pending CFTC rule, and a Congressional insider-trading probe all turn on exactly one question: is this product a financial instrument or a bet?
Read more →The 2026 World Cup Is the First Mega-Event for US Prediction Markets โ Kalshi and Polymarket Hit Record $7bn Weekly Volume Going In
The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off 11 June in Mexico City with global wagers projected to top $50 billion โ the biggest betting event in history. It is also the first World Cup where US traders can use prediction markets at full scale: Kalshi and Polymarket entered the week at a record $7 billion in combined weekly volume, and Kalshi lists nearly 500 tournament markets.
Read more →DraftKings Predictions Hits $1.3bn Annualised Consumer Volume in May; Railbird DCM and Combos Reshape the Competitive Field
DraftKings reported in an 8-K filing on 9 June 2026 that DraftKings Predictions ran $1.3bn in annualised consumer volume in May, +24% month-on-month, with $3.1bn in annualised total volume. The company is investing $200-300m in prediction markets in 2026 and will launch its own DCM (Railbird), in-house exchange technology, and a Super App before year-end.
Read more →Polymarket Completes First Block Trade โ Six-Figure FalconX/Anera Labs Hedge on Nvidia H100 GPU Pricing
Polymarket cleared its first institutional block trade on 2 June 2026 โ a six-figure position between digital-asset brokerage FalconX and AI-risk startup Anera Labs on the Ornn Compute Price Index tracking Nvidia H100 rental rates. FalconX has signed on as dedicated market maker. Polymarket trails Kalshi by a month on this milestone but claims the first on-chain institutional prediction-market trade.
Read more →CFTC's Proposed Prediction-Markets Rule Reaches White House OMB Review; Trump Posts Public Support
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission submitted a formal proposed rule for prediction-market regulation to the White House Office of Management and Budget on 26 May 2026. President Trump posted explicit support on social media, framing CFTC exclusive jurisdiction as critical infrastructure for the industry.
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