Prediction Markets
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CFTC rulings, platform launches, and regulatory shifts: everything that moves the prediction market landscape.
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An Independent Integrity Body Found 7 Betting Irregularities at the World Cup. FIFA Said There Were None. The Clash Centres on Polymarket.
The Group of Copenhagen โ the Council of Europe's independent match manipulation watchdog โ raised seven yellow notices for potential betting irregularities during the 2026 World Cup, directly contradicting FIFA's all-clear published on Tuesday. The most troubling finding involves Polymarket: the platform opened a market on 2 July asking whether Folarin Balogun would play against Belgium โ the same day Balogun received a red card, three days before FIFA publicly confirmed his ban was suspended. No equivalent markets were opened for any of the other 14 red cards at the tournament.
Read more →After Tuesday's Hearing, Congress Looks Ready to Legislate on Prediction Markets โ Not Just Watch
The House Agriculture Subcommittee held a two-hour hearing on 22 July examining sports event contracts, with witnesses from the American Gaming Association, tribal gaming, and both sides of the CFTC authority debate. Chair Dusty Johnson said Congress 'cannot afford to be silent' and signalled there is 'work for them to do.' Witnesses urged members to advance H.R. 7840, the Event Contract Enforcement Act, which would ban sports event contracts outright.
Read more →Bloomberg Found $200 Million in Suspicious Wagers on Kalshi and Polymarket. An Army Sergeant Has Already Been Indicted.
A Bloomberg investigation identified approximately $200 million in suspicious wagers on Kalshi and Polymarket between January and June 2026, concentrated in geopolitical event markets. A US Army Master Sergeant has been indicted for using classified information about the operation that captured Venezuelan President Maduro to generate $409,000 in profit. 57% of unusually successful wallets were created within 24 hours of placing their bets. The House Oversight Committee has launched a formal investigation.
Read more →Congress Is Holding a Hearing on Whether Prediction Markets Are Sports Bets โ With No Prediction Market Companies in the Room
The House Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing on Tuesday 22 July on the status of sports event contracts, featuring the American Gaming Association, tribal gaming interests, and former CFTC attorneys โ but no representatives from Kalshi, Polymarket, or any other prediction market platform. The AGA will argue that sports event contracts are sports bets. The hearing comes as Kalshi's World Cup winner market hit a record $1.9 billion in total volume.
Read more →Washington State Becomes the 11th: Judge Rules Kalshi Likely Ran an Illegal Gambling Operation
King County Superior Court Judge John McHale granted Washington state a preliminary injunction against Kalshi on 21 July, ruling the platform likely operated an illegal gambling operation under state law. McHale rejected Kalshi's CFTC-preemption defence. He asked both sides to present a compliance plan by the first week of August. Washington is the 11th state to take legal action โ and the fourth where a court has ruled against Kalshi, after Michigan, Nevada, and New York.
Read more →The Argentina-Spain World Cup Final Became the Biggest Single-Match Prediction Market Contract in History
The Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Final at MetLife Stadium on 19 July produced the largest single-match event contract ever on a US prediction market exchange. Trading on Kalshi's Argentina-Spain winner market topped $1.27 billion โ surpassing the Super Bowl, NBA Finals, and every prior US sports contract. Kalshi's total World Cup trading reached $40 billion across the tournament, and the platform added 3 million new users.
Read more →Underdog Launches Its Own CFTC-Licensed Prediction Market Exchange โ Ending Its Reliance on Kalshi
Underdog, the sports prediction and fantasy operator, launched its own federally licensed prediction market exchange on 18 July 2026, after acquiring two CFTC-registered entities in March. Underdog was the first sports gaming company to offer prediction market access (through Kalshi and Crypto.com) in autumn 2025. Going direct gives it full vertical control. The platform has $6.49 billion in cumulative notional volume โ third in the market behind Kalshi and Robinhood.
Read more →The CFTC Told Kalshi to Defy a State Court Order โ and Kalshi Is Caught in the Middle
Michigan's Judge Aquilina extended Kalshi's sports-contract ban through 12 August on 13 July, raising the daily fine to $500,000. The next day, CFTC Chairman Selig used emergency authority under the Commodity Exchange Act to order Kalshi to continue honouring Michigan trades โ directly contradicting the state court's order. Kalshi is now caught between two conflicting legal mandates.
Read more →Prediction Markets Handled 10x More Than US Bookmakers During the World Cup โ and a Third Exchange Just Entered the Race
Prediction market platforms combined for over $50 billion in trading volume in June 2026 as the FIFA World Cup drove the sector's most active month on record โ roughly ten times the volume projected for US legal sportsbooks across the entire 104-match tournament. ADI Predictstreet, the FIFA official prediction market partner, co-branded with Kalshi in stadiums and on Fox Sports. Rothera, the Robinhood and Susquehanna joint venture, processed $2 billion in its debut month.
Read more →Gibraltar Just Created the World's First Dedicated Prediction Market Regulatory Framework
Gibraltar's Prediction Market Regulations 2026 came into force on 13 July, making it the first jurisdiction in the world to create a standalone regulatory category for prediction markets โ explicitly separate from gambling law. Licensed operators ADI Predictstreet and WagerWire received the first approvals. The framework allows stablecoins, restricts death and terrorism contracts, and is designed as a potential European standard.
Read more →Kalshi Launches Pro: a Professional Trading Terminal That Signals What the Platform Is Becoming
Kalshi released Kalshi Pro on 13 July 2026 โ a free professional trading terminal built on TradingView charts with a multi-market Canvas layout, take-profit/stop-loss orders, reduce-only orders, a max-slippage guard, and margin-risk alerts. It covers both prediction markets and crypto perpetual futures, and is the clearest signal yet that Kalshi is evolving from a consumer app into a full-service derivatives exchange.
Read more →Italy Re-Bans Polymarket โ Putting a $22m Lazio FC Sponsorship Deal Under Italian Criminal Law
Italy's Customs and Monopolies Agency (ADM) added Polymarket to its blacklist for the second time in July 2026, re-classifying it as an unlicensed gambling operator. Polymarket had won a court reversal in late 2025 before the TAR Lazio. The renewed block threatens Polymarket's $22 million Lazio FC sponsorship: Italian law prohibits clubs from advertising unlicensed betting, potentially forcing Lazio to drop the partnership.
Read more →Kalshi Loses New York Ruling: Federal Licence Does Not Override State Gambling Law
US District Judge Analisa Torres of the Southern District of New York denied Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction on 7 July, ruling that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt New York's gambling enforcement. The decision hands state regulators another win and opens a second federal circuit on prediction market law. Kalshi appealed to the Second Circuit the same day.
Read more →Kalshi Is Now Blocking Michigan Users โ and Faces a Nevada Contempt Hearing on 16 July
Prediction market litigation has crossed from courtrooms to actual platform access restrictions. A Michigan state court issued a temporary restraining order on 29 June requiring Kalshi to halt sports contracts until 13 July โ $120,000-per-day fines for non-compliance โ and Kalshi began geofencing Michigan users on 7 July. Nevada is seeking to hold Kalshi in contempt after investigators purchased prohibited contracts eight times while in the state. Polymarket filed its first independent federal lawsuit, against New Mexico.
Read more →Kalshi's June Volume Hit $9.4bn โ Its Best Month Ever โ With Daily Trading Topping $1bn During the World Cup
Kalshi recorded $9.4 billion in trading volume in June 2026, up from $5.3 billion in May and the platform's highest monthly total ever. Total notional volume exceeded $31 billion, and daily activity consistently topped $1 billion during the World Cup. Canada vs. Morocco alone drew $48 million on Kalshi and $26.8 million on Polymarket.
Read more →Spotify to Kalshi and Polymarket: Remove Our Logo โ Traders Pumped Streams to Win a $3M Bet
Spotify identified over 500,000 artificial streams injected into Malcolm Todd's song 'Earrings' to manipulate its US chart position, then sent formal letters on 2 July demanding that Kalshi and Polymarket remove its branding. The manipulation targeted a $3M Kalshi market on the most-streamed song in the US for June. Kalshi had already paid out bettors before the fraud was confirmed.
Read more →Google Bans Prediction Market Extensions From Chrome โ Effective 1 August, the Same Day as Minnesota's Felony Ban
Google announced on 1 July that it will ban Chrome Web Store extensions that facilitate real-money trading on prediction markets, effective 1 August 2026. The policy update is the second Google action against prediction markets in a month, following an Ohio advertising ban in June, and it coincides with Minnesota's felony ban on prediction-market operators โ unless a federal court enjoins it first.
Read more →Meta Tried to Buy Kalshi. Talks Broke Down. Now Zuckerberg Is Building His Own โ With Play Money.
NPR reported on 30 June that Meta's Mark Zuckerberg held acquisition talks with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour last year, but negotiations never advanced. Meta is now building its own prediction market app called Arena, which will use play money only. Separately, Bernstein named Kalshi and Polymarket as likely M&A targets for DraftKings, Robinhood, or Coinbase.
Read more →Polymarket Hits $1bn in Annualised Revenue โ and Gets a CFTC Investigation on the Same Day
Six weeks after opening its US exchange to the public, Polymarket's annualised revenue surpassed $1 billion on 26 June 2026, with daily trading volume climbing from $50 million in mid-May to over $200 million. The milestone landed the same day CNBC and Bloomberg reported the CFTC is conducting a broad investigation into Polymarket โ the same agency currently suing nine states to defend prediction markets in court.
Read more →Kalshi Has $6.7bn in World Cup Volume โ Bank of America Now Estimates $12-13bn by the Final
Two weeks into the 2026 FIFA World Cup, Kalshi reports $6.7 billion in total World Cup trading volume, with a Bank of America analyst note estimating the platform will reach $12-13 billion by the 19 July final. Polymarket's soccer category crossed $2 billion in its first ten days, a 300% jump on pre-tournament levels. The numbers already eclipse the most optimistic pre-tournament projections.
Read more →Kalshi Is Seeking a $40 Billion Valuation โ Seven Weeks After Raising at $22 Billion
Kalshi is in talks for a new funding round at a $40 billion valuation, nearly doubling its May 2026 Series F figure, according to the Financial Times. Annualised revenue has crossed $2 billion and CEO Tarek Mansour confirmed early IPO discussions โ though not before 2027. Combined Kalshi and Polymarket volume hit $44.8 billion in June, a 75% jump from May.
Read more →Michigan Judge Rules Sports Contracts Likely Aren't Swaps โ the First Real Crack in the CFTC Preemption Wall
US District Judge Paul Maloney denied Polymarket and Robinhood a preliminary injunction on 19 June 2026, ruling that sports event contracts are likely not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that CFTC authority would 'sweep in activity that has traditionally belonged to state regulators.' It is the first significant court loss for the prediction-market side and turns the scattered district-court rulings into a Sixth Circuit split.
Read more →Kalshi Goes International: Wealthsimple to Bring ~4,000 Event Contracts to Canadian Retail Investors
Kalshi announced its first international expansion on 18 June 2026: a partnership with Canadian fintech Wealthsimple to launch Wealthsimple Predict, a standalone app giving Canadian traders access to roughly 4,000 Kalshi event contracts in climate, financial markets, and economic indicators. Sports and elections contracts are excluded under CIRO's March 2026 authorisation.
Read more →CFTC's 267-Page Proposed Rule Would Allow Most Sports Contracts โ But Bans Single-Play, Injury, and Officiating Bets
The CFTC's proposed prediction-market rule hit the Federal Register on 12 June 2026, opening a 45-day comment window closing 27 July. It permits sports event contracts on final scores, point differentials, win-loss, tournament advancement, and statistical performance โ but disallows single-play, in-game-fight, injury, officiating, and pre-collegiate contracts via a new three-step public-interest test.
Read more →CFTC Sues New Mexico โ Eighth State in the Federal Preemption Fight, and the First Filed After the Proposed Rule Dropped
The CFTC sued New Mexico on 12 June 2026 to block the state from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction markets, days after AG Raรบl Torrez sued Kalshi for offering unlicensed online sports betting. New Mexico is the eighth state the agency has sued. The complaint is the first to land after the CFTC's own proposed rule was released this week โ a rule that explicitly supports most sports-related event contracts.
Read more →ProphetX Wins CFTC DCM and DCO Approval โ the Sweepstakes-to-Prediction-Market Conversion Wave Begins
ProphetX, the former state-licensed sportsbook turned sweepstakes exchange, won CFTC approval this week for both a Designated Contract Market and a derivatives clearing organisation, and will convert to a sports prediction market early next week. It is the first of an expected wave of sweepstakes operators โ Novig and Sporttrade have applications pending โ pivoting to federal regulation as states ban sweepstakes apps.
Read more →Google Bans Prediction-Market Ads in Ohio โ Second State After Nevada, and Regulators Weren't Told First
Google updated its US prediction-markets advertising policy to prohibit ads for prediction-market contracts in Ohio, effective 2 June 2026. Ohio joins Nevada as the only states excluded since Google opened the category in January. The Ohio Casino Control Commission says it did not request the ban โ adding a new, private-sector front to a fight that has so far run through courts and statehouses.
Read more →Kalshi Scrubs 'Bookmaking' and 'Sports Betting' From Its USPTO Filings โ the Vocabulary Is Now a Legal Strategy
Kalshi's May trademark filings replaced the gambling terminology of its November 2025 USPTO submissions โ which described 'bookmaking services' and 'sports betting and gambling tournaments' โ with 'prediction market services' and 'trades and wagers.' The reframing lands while six state preemption suits, a pending CFTC rule, and a Congressional insider-trading probe all turn on exactly one question: is this product a financial instrument or a bet?
Read more →The 2026 World Cup Is the First Mega-Event for US Prediction Markets โ Kalshi and Polymarket Hit Record $7bn Weekly Volume Going In
The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off 11 June in Mexico City with global wagers projected to top $50 billion โ the biggest betting event in history. It is also the first World Cup where US traders can use prediction markets at full scale: Kalshi and Polymarket entered the week at a record $7 billion in combined weekly volume, and Kalshi lists nearly 500 tournament markets.
Read more →DraftKings Predictions Hits $1.3bn Annualised Consumer Volume in May; Railbird DCM and Combos Reshape the Competitive Field
DraftKings reported in an 8-K filing on 9 June 2026 that DraftKings Predictions ran $1.3bn in annualised consumer volume in May, +24% month-on-month, with $3.1bn in annualised total volume. The company is investing $200-300m in prediction markets in 2026 and will launch its own DCM (Railbird), in-house exchange technology, and a Super App before year-end.
Read more →Polymarket Completes First Block Trade โ Six-Figure FalconX/Anera Labs Hedge on Nvidia H100 GPU Pricing
Polymarket cleared its first institutional block trade on 2 June 2026 โ a six-figure position between digital-asset brokerage FalconX and AI-risk startup Anera Labs on the Ornn Compute Price Index tracking Nvidia H100 rental rates. FalconX has signed on as dedicated market maker. Polymarket trails Kalshi by a month on this milestone but claims the first on-chain institutional prediction-market trade.
Read more →CFTC's Proposed Prediction-Markets Rule Reaches White House OMB Review; Trump Posts Public Support
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission submitted a formal proposed rule for prediction-market regulation to the White House Office of Management and Budget on 26 May 2026. President Trump posted explicit support on social media, framing CFTC exclusive jurisdiction as critical infrastructure for the industry.
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