Prediction Markets Hit $14.1B in NFL Kickoff Week — Kalshi Holds 92% Market Share
Combined weekly volume across Kalshi and Polymarket reached $14.1 billion in the first full NFL regular season week (7-13 September). Kalshi held 92% of the combined total at $12.98 billion; Polymarket Global recorded $1.11 billion. Kalshi's NFL-specific volume hit $983 million for the week. Non-sports categories posted a sixth consecutive weekly record at $10 billion. Full-season NFL projection: $57 billion across all platforms.
Combined weekly contract volume across Kalshi and Polymarket Global reached $14.1 billion for the week of 7-13 September 2026 — the first full NFL regular season week — driven by football contracts, the US Open, Federal Reserve rate decision markets, and esports. Kalshi held 92.1% of the combined total at $12.98 billion. Polymarket Global recorded $1.11 billion. Kalshi's NFL-specific volume hit $983 million for the week alone, up 1,288% week-on-week. On the first Sunday of the NFL regular season, Kalshi saw $388 million in NFL game contracts — 76% of all NFL prediction market volume that day across platforms. DeFi Rate projects total NFL season volume across all prediction market platforms could reach $57 billion.
For UK readers, the scale reference point is the UK National Lottery, which turns over approximately £8 billion annually. Kalshi alone recorded $12.98 billion in a single week. The comparison is imperfect — lottery stakes and event contract notional volume are structurally different products — but it illustrates why the US states contesting Kalshi's legality view the commercial stakes as significant from a gambling tax and consumer protection perspective. The UK Gambling Commission's regulated market generates approximately £14 billion in gross gambling yield annually across all operators and products. The US prediction market sector is on a trajectory to produce comparable notional volumes in a single sport across a single platform in a single season.
Kalshi's 92% share of combined Kalshi-Polymarket volume is a significant shift from three months ago when the split was roughly equal. Three factors drive the divergence. First, Kalshi's perpetual futures products (crypto since May, gold and silver since September 10) generate large-notional non-sports volume at institutional scale. Second, Cantor Fitzgerald's broker network directs large block trades to Kalshi from approximately 3,000 institutional clients. Third, Kalshi's broader self-certified contract menu gives it more tradeable surface area than Polymarket US operates under the same CFTC framework. The non-sports weekly total reaching $10 billion — a sixth consecutive record — with Kalshi at $9.6 billion reflects this structural advantage in the non-sports categories that now dwarf sports contracts in volume terms.
The commercial magnitude of these volume figures is the essential context for the ongoing litigation. The states suing Kalshi and Robinhood are contesting access to markets running at $14 billion weekly. The CFTC's emergency orders protecting platforms in Michigan, New York, and other states are protecting a product that generates more notional volume in a week than many mid-size financial exchanges generate in a quarter. When the Ninth Circuit or eventually SCOTUS issues a definitive ruling on whether CFTC-licensed event contracts preempt state gambling law, that ruling will apply to a sector that has already scaled far beyond what any court or regulator was calibrating for when the litigation began.
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Recent updates
Utah Files Felony Charges Against Kalshi and Its Founders — Second State to Criminally Charge a Platform
Utah filed criminal charges against Kalshi and its two co-founders, Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, on October 28 — 13 felonies and a misdemeanour, including a second-degree 'pattern of unlawful criminal activity' count and 12 counts of online gambling promotion. The charges stem from a September sting in which an undercover agent placed 12 sports wagers verified to be in Utah. The CFTC sued Utah the day before to block state enforcement, its tenth such suit. Utah is the second state after Arizona to criminally charge Kalshi, and the first to charge the founders personally. Kalshi called it a 'crazy overreach.'
NBA Names Kalshi and Polymarket Preferred Exchanges — Leaving the NFL Alone in Opposition
The NBA announced on October 26 that it has named Kalshi and Polymarket its 'preferred prediction market exchanges,' signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with the CFTC on basketball integrity, and expanded its DraftKings deal to include prediction markets — the first league to extend a sportsbook partnership into the category. The exchange deals bar league and team personnel from trading NBA contracts, limit permissible markets, and require sharing suspicious-trading data, in exchange for NBA intellectual property and official data. The NBA joins MLB, the NHL, and MLS as partnered leagues, leaving the NFL as the lone major holdout — and the only league fighting the platforms in court.
CFTC Chair Says Agency Is Watching Prediction Markets for Manipulation Ahead of Midterms
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said on October 23 that the agency is closely monitoring prediction markets for manipulation ahead of the November 3 midterms, and that it is separately scrutinising oil market trading tied to President Trump's announcements about the war in Iran. Combined midterm open interest on Kalshi and Polymarket stood at $250 million as of October 18, with Kalshi holding 84%. Selig acknowledged the agency often catches political figures trading 'oftentimes after the fact.' The remarks highlight the CFTC's dual role as both the platforms' federal protector and their manipulation watchdog.