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← Prediction Markets in the UK ◆ Comparison · Updated May 2026

Prediction markets
vs sports betting in the UK

Prediction markets (Polymarket) and sports betting (Betfair Exchange, bet365, Paddy Power) are fundamentally different instruments. For UK traders, the key question is: Betfair Exchange's political markets are the closest licensed alternative to Polymarket. This guide maps the differences.

Sports betting vs prediction markets


CriterionPrediction markets
(Polymarket)
Sports / political betting
(Betfair Exchange / bet365)
Fees / margin~2% taker fee (Polymarket)2–5% commission (Betfair); 5–10% overround (bet365)
UK political marketsYes: deep liquidityYes on Betfair Exchange; limited on bookmakers
Sports marketsNoneYes: Premier League, horse racing, cricket…
UKGC licenceNo (grey zone)Yes: full consumer protection
CurrencyUSDC (USD stablecoin)British pounds
Liquidity mechanismPeer-to-peer order bookExchange (Betfair) or bookmaker prices
AccessCrypto wallet + USDCApp / website direct
GAMSTOP self-exclusionNoYes (Gambling Commission requirement)
GBP depositNoYes
Sports coverageNoneBroad (spreads, props, live)

Why Betfair Exchange is the closest UK alternative


Betfair Exchange is uniquely relevant to UK prediction market users because it operates as a peer-to-peer exchange (not a bookmaker setting prices) and covers political markets: UK general elections, party leadership, by-elections, referenda. Its 2–5% commission is competitive. It holds a full Gambling Commission licence, meaning GAMSTOP self-exclusion, deposit limits, and dispute resolution apply.

Betfair advantages over Polymarket
Gambling Commission licensed: full consumer protection
GBP deposits and withdrawals
GAMSTOP self-exclusion applies
Sports + political markets in one place
No crypto wallet required
Polymarket advantages over Betfair
Global event coverage (Betfair is mostly UK/EU)
Deeper liquidity on major global political markets
No UKGC identity verification requirements
Lower effective fee on many markets (~2% vs 2–5%)
Crypto: non-custodial, on-chain settlement

Choosing the right platform


Use Polymarket if:
You want global political markets (US, EU, global elections)
You want crypto, macro or AI event markets
You prefer lower fees on major political markets
You are comfortable with a crypto wallet and USDC
You do not need UK regulatory protection
Use Betfair / bet365 if:
You want sports betting (Premier League, horse racing, cricket)
You want GBP deposits and withdrawals
You need UKGC consumer protections and GAMSTOP
You want UK and European political markets with GBP
You prefer not to use cryptocurrency