How to Trade
on Manifold

1. 1
   Create a Manifold account — no ID required

   Go to manifold.markets and sign up with your Google account or email. No SSN, no government ID, no KYC verification: this is a free platform. Creating an account takes under 2 minutes. You'll receive M$1,000 in Mana (play-money currency) immediately to start trading. Manifold is available to users in all countries, including all US states, with no restrictions.
2. 2
   Understand Mana — the play-money currency

   Manifold uses "Mana" (M$) as its currency. M$ have no cash value: you cannot withdraw Mana as USD. They exist purely for prediction market practice and platform reputation building. You receive M$1,000 on signup, and earn more through referring friends, participating in special events, and trading well. Think of Mana as your prediction market training currency.
3. 3
   Explore the market catalog

   Manifold has hundreds of thousands of user-created markets on virtually any topic: politics, sports, science, technology, culture, personal bets, and highly niche questions. The most popular markets have high liquidity. You can browse by category, trending markets, or use the search. The diversity of markets is Manifold's main advantage over any real-money platform.
4. 4
   Place your first trade

   Click any market to see the YES/NO probability. Click "YES" or "NO" to bet. Enter how much Mana you want to risk. Manifold uses an automated market maker (AMM) model: you're trading against a liquidity pool, not individual counterparties. Your trade immediately moves the market probability in your direction. Limit orders are also available for more precise entry.
5. 5
   Create your own market

   Anyone can create a market on Manifold: on any question you want, with any resolution criteria. Click "Create market" and define the question, resolution method, and close date. You can be the resolver (you decide the outcome) or designate a trusted resolver. Creating markets is how Manifold enables its massive variety: the platform is community-driven, not editorially curated like Kalshi.
6. 6
   Track your calibration score

   Manifold tracks your forecasting calibration: how often your predicted probabilities match actual outcomes. If you consistently predict 70% and those things happen 70% of the time, you are well-calibrated. This score is visible on your profile and is the primary reputation metric on Manifold. Building a strong calibration record here is the clearest proof of forecasting skill before moving to real-money platforms.
7. 7
   Try Manifold Sweepstakes (real cash prizes)

   Manifold offers a separate sweepstakes layer called "Sweepstakes" where you can earn real USD prizes by trading a separate currency called "Sweepcash." Sweepstakes markets operate under US sweepstakes law (free alternative method of entry). You can earn real money rewards without risk: though prize amounts are modest compared to real-money prediction markets. Sweepcash earnings can be redeemed for USD.
8. 8
   Graduate to real-money platforms

   After trading on Manifold, you'll have a calibration record, market intuition, and experience sizing positions. When you're ready to trade with real money, use your Manifold track record as a baseline. Open a Kalshi account for real-money trading across sports, politics, and economics. The transition is smooth: the concepts are identical, just with USD instead of Mana.

The biggest mistake new prediction market traders make is depositing real money before they understand how markets work. Here's the two-step path that works: