Prediction Markets News

Missouri AG Sends Cease-and-Desist Letters to Six Prediction Market Operators

Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway issued cease-and-desist letters on September 18 to six prediction market operators — Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, Crypto.com, Novig, and Underdog — alleging their sports event contracts constitute unlicensed sports wagering under Missouri law. The letters give platforms 30 days to comply or obtain licenses from the Missouri Gaming Commission. Missouri is the broadest multi-platform C&D action to date, targeting all major operators simultaneously. The action arrives one day after Montana and Kalshi filed a joint stipulation in which Montana agreed to pause enforcement while Ninth Circuit en banc review is pending.

September 18, 2026

Yahoo Finance Ends Polymarket Data Partnership After Five Months

Yahoo Finance and Polymarket mutually ended their prediction market data partnership on September 18, approximately five months after the companies announced an exclusive arrangement in November 2025. The Polymarket data hub that Yahoo Finance launched in January-February 2026 was quietly taken down in April 2026. No reason was publicly disclosed. Yahoo Finance retains an advertising relationship with Polymarket. The partnership's end is a setback for Polymarket's strategy of embedding its probability data into mainstream financial media platforms.

September 17, 2026

Montana and Kalshi Reach Joint Stipulation — State Pauses Enforcement Pending Ninth Circuit En Banc

Kalshi dismissed its lawsuit against the Montana Department of Justice on September 17 after both sides filed a joint stipulation in which Montana agreed to pause all enforcement, investigations, and cease-and-desist proceedings against Kalshi's event contracts. The pause lasts until the Ninth Circuit either denies en banc review of the August 28 ruling or issues an en banc decision. Montana must give Kalshi 30 days written notice before resuming any enforcement action after that window closes. The agreement mirrors the Robinhood-Michigan stipulation from September 4 and reinforces a pattern of states reaching negotiated compliance pauses while the appellate process plays out.

September 16, 2026

Fed Hikes 25bp for First Time Since 2023 — Prediction Markets Priced It at 81% vs CME Futures at 64%

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate 25 basis points to 3.75%-4% on September 16 — the first increase since 2023 — in a 12-0 unanimous vote. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation remains too high, driven in part by energy prices. The dot plot showed 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more hike before year-end. Prediction markets on Kalshi priced the September hike at 81% going into the decision; CME fed funds futures implied a 64% probability. The gap reinforces a recurring pattern in 2026: prediction markets have consistently assigned higher probabilities to rate hikes than CME futures, and have been correct.

September 15, 2026

CLARITY Act Senate Cloture Vote Fails — Crypto Regulatory Framework Dead for 2026

The Senate failed to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act on September 15, falling short of the 60-vote threshold needed to invoke cloture and begin floor debate. The bill, which would have created a comprehensive US regulatory framework for digital assets by clarifying CFTC vs. SEC jurisdiction, is now effectively dead for 2026. Prediction markets had correctly priced passage probability at 20-30% throughout the fall. The failure means there is no legislative path to resolving the CFTC vs. states conflict over prediction market sports contracts — the question must go to the Supreme Court, not Congress.

September 14, 2026

Prediction Markets Hit $14.1B in NFL Kickoff Week — Kalshi Holds 92% Market Share

Combined weekly contract volume across Kalshi and Polymarket reached $14.1 billion in the week of September 7-13, the first full NFL regular season week, driven by football, the US Open, Fed rate decision bets, and esports. Kalshi recorded $12.98 billion — 92.1% of total — while Polymarket Global recorded $1.11 billion. NFL-specific volume on Kalshi alone hit $983 million for the week, up 1,288% week-over-week. Non-sports categories reached $10 billion, a sixth consecutive weekly record. Analysts project NFL season prediction market volume could reach $57 billion across all platforms.

September 10, 2026

Kalshi Launches Gold and Silver Perpetual Futures After CFTC Approval — First Non-Crypto Perps Cleared in the US

Kalshi launched perpetual futures on gold and silver on September 10 after the CFTC approved the contracts — making them the first non-cryptocurrency perpetual futures to receive US regulatory clearance. The contracts are cash-settled, never expire, and trade 24/7 using Pyth Network price feeds. Kalshi simultaneously has pending applications for perpetual futures on US equities, copper, and currencies. Since receiving CFTC approval for crypto perpetual futures in late May, Kalshi has done $44 billion in notional volume on those contracts. The gold and silver launches represent Kalshi's most direct competitive move yet against the CME and COMEX as established US commodity exchanges.

September 10, 2026

Robinhood Agrees to Exit Michigan Sports Contracts by October 9 — Court-Approved Deal Described as Blueprint

Robinhood Derivatives has agreed to stop offering new sports event contracts to Michigan customers by September 9 and close all outstanding positions by October 9, under a court-approved stipulation signed by US District Judge Paul Maloney on September 4. Michigan agreed not to enforce state gambling laws against Robinhood while the company complies. The deal preserves Robinhood's CEA preemption argument and keeps multiple Sixth Circuit appeals — involving Robinhood, Polymarket, Coinbase, and Kalshi — on track. Legal Sports Report called the agreement a potential 'blueprint' for how platforms and states might reach interim accommodations during the ongoing litigation.

September 9, 2026

DICE ETF Launches on Cboe Giving Retail Investors Pre-IPO Access to Kalshi and Polymarket

Tema ETFs launched the Tema Trading & Prediction Markets ETF (ticker: DICE) on the Cboe exchange on September 9 — the first ETF to offer direct exposure to both Kalshi and Polymarket before either company goes public. Kalshi and Polymarket together account for 15% of DICE's portfolio, each at approximately 7.3%, accessed through a special purpose vehicle that holds stakes in the private companies. The fund also holds publicly traded Robinhood Markets and Coinbase. DICE carries a 0.75% expense ratio. Tema's president cites the Bernstein projection that prediction market volume could reach $1 trillion annually by 2030.

September 9, 2026

Kalshi Seeks Ninth Circuit En Banc Rehearing While Robinhood Files Separate SCOTUS Petition

Kalshi filed a petition for en banc rehearing at the Ninth Circuit on September 9, asking the full 11-judge court to overturn the August 28 3-0 panel ruling that Nevada can regulate its sports contracts as gambling. Simultaneously, Robinhood filed its own separate certiorari petition with the Supreme Court challenging the same Ninth Circuit ruling. The two platforms are pursuing parallel legal strategies from the same defeat: Kalshi seeking a better ruling at the Ninth Circuit first; Robinhood going directly to SCOTUS. New Jersey has already filed a SCOTUS petition from the Third Circuit's April ruling. There are now two separate cert petitions before the Supreme Court on the prediction market question.

September 3, 2026

Polymarket Launches 20x Leveraged Perpetual Futures Across 67 Markets — International Users Only

Polymarket launched Polymarket Perps on September 3 — a perpetual futures platform with up to 20x leverage across 67 markets covering crypto, individual stocks, equity indices, and commodities including oil and gold. The product is available to international users only; US traders are blocked under the same US-exclusion policy that separates Polymarket International from the CFTC-regulated Polymarket US. The launch moves Polymarket International into direct competition with Binance, Bybit, and dYdX in the crypto derivatives space, and represents the clearest signal yet that Polymarket's international business is evolving beyond binary prediction markets toward a full-service leveraged trading platform.

September 2, 2026

New Jersey Files 332-Page SCOTUS Petition — First State to Ask Supreme Court to Rule on Prediction Markets

New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport filed a 332-page certiorari petition with the U.S. Supreme Court on September 2, formally asking the Court to resolve whether Dodd-Frank preempts states from regulating sports bets on CFTC-registered prediction market platforms. New Jersey is the losing party from the Third Circuit's April ruling for Kalshi and can cite the Ninth Circuit's August 28 ruling against Kalshi as direct circuit conflict. Kalshi has 30 days from docketing to file a response; SCOTUS has approximately 90 days to decide whether to grant review. The probability of SCOTUS taking the case by year-end has settled at around 46% on Polymarket after an initial spike to 64%.

August 31, 2026

Massachusetts Supreme Court Ruling on Kalshi Now Imminent — First State High Court Decision on Prediction Markets

The Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court heard oral arguments on May 5 in the Kalshi prediction markets case and is expected to issue a decision within weeks. The SJC appeared skeptical of Kalshi's argument that CFTC regulation preempts state gambling law, and the court's ruling will be the first state supreme court decision on prediction markets anywhere in the country. Massachusetts AG Andrea Campbell secured a preliminary injunction blocking Kalshi's sports contracts in January 2026. The CFTC filed an amicus brief supporting Kalshi; a coalition of 38 state attorneys general filed an opposing brief supporting Massachusetts.

August 29, 2026

27 States Back California Tribes Suing Kalshi Over Sports Contracts Under Indian Gaming Law

Three California tribes — Blue Lake Rancheria, Chicken Ranch Rancheria of Me-Wuk Indians, and Picayune Rancheria of the Chukchansi Indians — are separately challenging Kalshi's sports event contracts in the Ninth Circuit under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act, a federal law distinct from the Commodity Exchange Act preemption arguments at issue in Nevada, New Jersey, and Connecticut. The Ninth Circuit refused to consolidate the tribal case with the Nevada case. A Ninth Circuit panel appeared skeptical of Kalshi in July hearings, and 27 states plus the District of Columbia have filed amicus briefs supporting the tribes. The IGRA theory, if it succeeds, could block Kalshi from operating sports contracts in any state where tribal gaming compacts exist — a category that includes most US states.

August 29, 2026

SCOTUS Review of Prediction Markets Hits 64% on Polymarket — New Jersey Files Cert Petition September 3

The probability of Supreme Court review of prediction market sports contracts jumped from around 30% to 64% on Polymarket's own platform within hours of the Ninth Circuit's August 28 ruling — with $976,000 in trading volume flowing into the contract. New Jersey, the losing party in the Third Circuit's April ruling that went for Kalshi, is filing a certiorari petition on September 3. The Ninth Circuit's 3-0 ruling against Kalshi directly contradicts the Third Circuit's 2-1 ruling for Kalshi, creating the clearest possible circuit split trigger for SCOTUS to grant review.

August 28, 2026

Ninth Circuit Rules 3-0: Kalshi's Sports Contracts Are Not Swaps — States Can Regulate Them as Gambling

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit has ruled unanimously against Kalshi, holding that sports event contracts likely do not qualify as 'swaps' under the Commodity Exchange Act and that states may therefore regulate them as gambling. The 3-0 decision directly conflicts with the Third Circuit's April ruling in Kalshi's favor, creating a formal circuit split that virtually guarantees Supreme Court review. The Ninth Circuit's jurisdiction covers nine western states including California — the largest US market without legal sports betting — as well as Arizona, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington. New Jersey is preparing a SCOTUS petition with a September 3 deadline.

August 27, 2026

Connecticut Files State Court Suit Against Kalshi — Ex Parte TRO Denied, Kalshi Counter-Sues the Next Day

Connecticut Attorney General William Tong, Consumer Protection Commissioner Bryan Cafferelli, and Governor Ned Lamont have filed a state court lawsuit against Kalshi in Connecticut Superior Court, seeking an injunction to block sports event contracts, plus disgorgement, restitution, and civil penalties. The court denied an immediate ex parte temporary restraining order. Kalshi counter-sued state officials the following day. The state court suit is separate from the federal D. Connecticut case — where Judge Oliver denied Kalshi's preliminary injunction on August 11 — creating two simultaneous Connecticut proceedings targeting the same contracts.

August 27, 2026

Polymarket Pulls NFL Player Participation Contracts After CFTC Request — Kalshi Proceeds

Polymarket self-certified NFL player participation contracts on August 25 — including a market on whether Patrick Mahomes would play in Week 1 after his ACL injury — then withdrew them the following day after the CFTC asked platforms to remove the markets. Kalshi has kept its own player participation contracts live, arguing that 'will this player play?' is a participation question, not an injury-based contract. The NFL called injury-related prediction market contracts 'inherently objectionable.' The CFTC's own June rules proposal would ban contracts that settle solely on player injuries. The episode creates a direct conflict between Kalshi and Polymarket's approaches in the days before the NFL regular season opens September 4.

August 22, 2026

NFL Preseason Prediction Market Volume Hits $167.8M in One Week — Up 324% as Sports Season Begins

NFL prediction market volume reached $167.8 million in the week ending August 16, up 324% from $39.5 million the prior week, with preseason game markets accounting for $143.5 million — 85.5% of the total. A single preseason game on Kalshi drew $19.4 million in volume. Super Bowl LXI futures have already accumulated $59 million across platforms. The surge arrives weeks before the NFL regular season opens on September 4, the commercial test every prediction market platform CEO has cited as the critical growth milestone for 2026.

August 20, 2026

CFTC's Innovation Advisory Committee Holds Inaugural Meeting — Self-Certification Splits CME and Kalshi as Manipulation Risk Takes Centre Stage

The CFTC's Innovation Advisory Committee held its first meeting on August 20 in Washington, with prediction markets allocated 50 of the 180 scheduled minutes. The session's central dispute: CME Group CEO Terry Duffy argued that self-certification — which lets platforms list new event contracts without prior CFTC approval — has allowed thousands of contracts to reach markets without adequate scrutiny, exposing them to manipulation risk. Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara defended self-certification as essential to platform speed. The 43-member committee includes CEOs of Coinbase, Ripple, Kraken, Gemini, Nasdaq, CME Group, ICE, and both Kalshi's Tarek Mansour and Polymarket's Shayne Coplan. Public written submissions close August 27.

August 19, 2026

Cantor Fitzgerald Opens Kalshi's Event Contracts to 3,000 Institutional Clients — Wall Street's First Block Trading Service for Prediction Markets

Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. has launched institutional block trading in event contracts on Kalshi, becoming the first full-service investment bank to bring institutional clients into prediction markets at scale. Cantor will act as introducing broker for roughly 3,000 institutional clients, with Susquehanna Predictions providing liquidity. Contracts include weather outcomes, commodity prices, corporate earnings, iPhone sales, and AI supply chain risks. Bernstein analysts estimate prediction market annual trading volumes could reach $1 trillion by the end of the decade. CNBC reports hedge funds are preparing to enter in a significant way.

August 14, 2026

JPMorgan Cut Polymarket's Banking Ties in October 2025 Over Regulatory Concerns — and Still Wants to Underwrite Its IPO

The Financial Times has reported that JPMorgan Chase terminated its banking relationship with Polymarket in October 2025 over regulatory concerns, while simultaneously pursuing an underwriting role in a potential Polymarket IPO. JPMorgan notified Polymarket it would need a new banking partner at a time when the platform was still barred from US users following its 2022 CFTC settlement. Polymarket has since moved to an undisclosed new bank but disputes the FT's characterization, saying it maintains a 'close, active relationship' with JPMorgan on operational integrations and customer fund flows.

Baltimore Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood and Webull for Unlicensed Sports Betting — First Municipal Lawsuit Against Prediction Markets

Mayor Brandon Scott and the Baltimore City Council have sued Kalshi, Polymarket, and three distribution partners — Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull — for operating unlicensed sports betting in violation of Baltimore's Consumer Protection Ordinance. The suits allege the platforms compete with regulated sportsbooks while avoiding Maryland's 15% gaming tax, state oversight, and responsible-gambling requirements including the 21+ age limit. Baltimore is the first municipality in the US to pursue legal action against prediction market platforms. The Kalshi complaint separately argues that 'combos' on Kalshi and Robinhood function as parlays equivalent to those offered by licensed sportsbooks.

Harry Kane Is the 41% Favorite for the 2026 Ballon d'Or on Polymarket — Lamine Yamal Surges After World Cup

Prediction markets have installed Harry Kane as the heavy favorite for the 2026 Ballon d'Or, with Polymarket pricing him at 41% and Kalshi near 42% — both reflecting his record-breaking 2025-26 season at Bayern Munich, where he scored 73 goals and won the Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal double. Lamine Yamal has surged to 26-35% on Kalshi following Spain's World Cup victory, up from around 4% before the tournament. The award ceremony takes place October 26 in London.

Kalshi's Double Geofencing Deadline Passes as NFL Preseason Begins — Michigan and Nevada Both Required GeoComply by August 12

August 12 was simultaneously the geofencing deadline in Michigan ($500,000/day fine) and Nevada ($120,000/day fine) — and the first week of the 2026 NFL preseason. Kalshi had until that date to implement GeoComply's commercial multi-source geolocation system in both states, blocking residents from accessing sports event contracts. The dual deadline arrives as prediction market platforms report explosive NFL-season growth: Kalshi already has over $59 million in Super Bowl LXI trading volume and more than 100,000 app downloads in the past month.

Washington Judge Expands Kalshi Injunction — Sports, Elections, Politics, Entertainment and 'Mentions' Markets Must All Stop by September 2

King County Superior Court Judge John McHale has issued a final compliance order expanding the scope of the Kalshi preliminary injunction in Washington state. Kalshi must halt sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture, tech and science, and 'mentions' contracts — but can continue offering markets on commodities, climate, economics, and finance. Geofencing deadlines are August 19 for IP-based blocking and September 2 for a multi-source commercial system. The Washington Court of Appeals denied Kalshi's request to stay the injunction. 'Mentions' contracts — bets on whether public figures say specific words — are explicitly named for the first time in any state court order.

August 11, 2026

Connecticut Federal Court Denies Kalshi's PI — With a Novel Argument: Sports Event Contracts Are Not 'Swaps' at All

The U.S. District Court for the District of Connecticut has denied Kalshi's request for a preliminary injunction, allowing the state to enforce its gambling laws against prediction market sports contracts. Judge Vernon D. Oliver ruled that Kalshi's sports-event contracts do not satisfy the statutory definition of a 'swap' under the Commodity Exchange Act — because they depend on event outcomes, not on whether an event occurs. Kalshi has appealed to the Second Circuit, giving that court two simultaneous Kalshi appeals. Gaming law attorney Daniel Wallach says both Second Circuit cases could be consolidated for oral argument. The ruling creates a direct circuit conflict with a Third Circuit ruling from April that found Kalshi's contracts ARE swaps.

August 11, 2026

FlightAware Sues Kalshi Over Flight Cancellation Markets — Alleging Unauthorized Data Use, Trademark Infringement, and Aviation Safety Risk

Flight tracking company FlightAware has filed suit against Kalshi, accusing it of using FlightAware's data without permission to settle flight-cancellation prediction markets, falsely implying a commercial partnership, and creating financial incentives for unsafe interference with aviation. Kalshi introduced the markets last month, telling users outcomes are 'verified from FlightAware' — without any agreement with the company. FlightAware is seeking a TRO and injunctions to stop Kalshi from using its data and brand. The lawsuit adds a new category of legal challenge: IP and data rights, rather than state gambling law or CFTC jurisdiction.

August 7, 2026

Prediction Markets Hit Wall Street Earnings Season: DraftKings at $11B Annualized Volume, Robinhood at $156M Revenue, Coinbase at $100M+

Prediction markets featured prominently in Q2 2026 earnings reports from DraftKings, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Flutter. DraftKings' prediction platform grew from $2.3 billion to $11 billion in annualized volume between April and July, with CEO Jason Robins expecting 'millions' of users by NFL season. Robinhood's Rothera generated $156 million in event contracts revenue in its first partial quarter. Coinbase reported 106% quarter-over-quarter growth in prediction market revenue, surpassing $100 million annualized. Flutter is moving FanDuel Predicts from CME to Crypto.com ahead of the NFL season.

August 7, 2026

Kalshi and Polymarket Are Now Taking Bets on Clinical Trials. Researchers Say That Is a Structural Integrity Problem.

Kalshi and Polymarket have begun allowing users to bet on the outcomes of clinical drug trials and FDA approval decisions. Researchers running those trials say the markets create direct financial incentives for people with access to trial data — pharmacists, coordinators, investigators — to tamper with results. Kalshi argues the markets are no different from stock market short sellers and will provide valuable information about drug development. Critics call the whole thing 'ghastly.' The debate represents the most ethically serious challenge prediction markets have faced.

August 6, 2026

Polymarket Becomes the ATP Tour's Official Prediction Market Provider — With Sportradar Supplying Integrity Monitoring

Polymarket has signed a deal with Tennis Data Innovations, the joint venture between the ATP Tour and ATP Media Holdings, to become the tour's official prediction market provider. The agreement covers approximately 20,000 matches per season across the ATP Tour and ATP Challenger Tour, with official live data and odds supplied by Sportradar — which will also provide integrity monitoring services. US users will get integrated live streaming alongside real-time prediction market contracts. It is Polymarket's second major data and streaming partnership in two days, following the Genius Sports deal on August 5.

August 6, 2026

Polymarket Becomes Official Prediction Market Partner of the New York Yankees — One Week After Novig Did the Same With the Mets

Polymarket has announced a partnership with the New York Yankees making it the team's official prediction market partner for the remainder of the 2026 MLB season. The deal includes Polymarket branding at Yankee Stadium, rotating home plate signage during locally televised games, and exclusive fan experiences. It comes one week after the New York Mets announced an equivalent deal with Novig — meaning both New York MLB franchises now have an official prediction market partner, and two of the first three MLB prediction market partnerships are both in New York City.

August 5, 2026

Polymarket Partners With Genius Sports for Live Streaming, Official Settlement Data, and Integrity Monitoring

Polymarket has struck a partnership with Genius Sports — the official data and streaming provider for the NFL, NCAA, Serie A, and dozens of other leagues — giving Polymarket's CFTC-regulated US platform exclusive live streaming rights, official event data for contract settlement, and access to Genius Sports' league integrity information-sharing infrastructure. The deal makes Polymarket the first CFTC-regulated prediction market to integrate live sports streaming directly alongside real-time event contracts, and follows recent congressional and international scrutiny of prediction market integrity practices.

August 4, 2026

Oregon Senators Ask CFTC to Ban Wildfire Betting — Citing Arson Risk and the $1.2 Million Wagered on the LA Fires

A coalition led by Oregon's senators has formally urged CFTC Chair Michael Selig to prohibit prediction market platforms from offering contracts on active wildfires. The demand follows reports that Polymarket accepted more than $1.2 million in wagers on the January 2025 Palisades and Eaton fires, which killed 31 people and destroyed more than 16,000 structures. Fire officials warn that financial stakes on wildfires create a direct incentive for arson. The CFTC has been asked to respond by August 14.

July 31, 2026

IG Group Buys Underdog for $1.3 Billion — The First Major Foreign Acquisition of a US Prediction Market Exchange

IG Group, the UK-listed financial trading platform, has agreed to acquire Underdog for approximately $1.3 billion — 13 days after Underdog launched its own CFTC-licensed exchange. The deal gives IG Group a US designated contract market and derivatives clearing organization, making it the first international financial firm to acquire a licensed US prediction market venue. Underdog is currently the third-largest US prediction market by regulated notional volume, behind Kalshi and Robinhood.

July 27, 2026

Kalshi Settles Nevada Contempt Case — Agrees to GeoComply Geofencing as Hearing Is Canceled

Kalshi and the Nevada Gaming Control Board have reached a settlement agreement ending the state's contempt proceedings against the prediction market platform. Under the deal, Kalshi must implement a GeoComply-powered multi-source geofencing system to block Nevada residents from accessing its sports, election, and entertainment markets by August 12 — or pay $120,000 per day. The contempt hearing scheduled for July had been triggered by evidence that NGCB investigators successfully purchased prohibited contracts on Kalshi's platform eight times in four days while physically inside Nevada.

July 23, 2026

An Independent Integrity Body Found 7 Betting Irregularities at the World Cup. FIFA Said There Were None. The Clash Centers on Polymarket.

The Group of Copenhagen — the Council of Europe's independent match manipulation watchdog — raised seven yellow notices for potential betting irregularities during the 2026 World Cup, in direct contradiction to FIFA's own Integrity Task Force, which published an all-clear on Tuesday. The most troubling finding involves Polymarket: the platform opened a market on July 2 asking whether Folarin Balogun would play against Belgium — the same day Balogun received a red card and three days before FIFA publicly confirmed his ban was suspended. No equivalent markets were opened for any of the other 14 red cards shown at the tournament.

July 22, 2026

After Yesterday's Hearing, Congress Looks Ready to Legislate on Prediction Markets — Not Just Watch

The House Agriculture Subcommittee held a two-hour hearing on July 22 examining sports event contracts, with witnesses from the American Gaming Association, tribal gaming, and both sides of the CFTC authority debate. Subcommittee Chair Dusty Johnson said Congress 'cannot afford to be silent' and signaled there is 'work for them to do.' Witnesses urged members to advance H.R. 7840, the Event Contract Enforcement Act, which would ban sports event contracts outright. The hearing adds a third front to a fight that is already being waged simultaneously in ten state courts and at the CFTC.

July 22, 2026

Bloomberg Found $200 Million in Suspicious Wagers on Kalshi and Polymarket. An Army Sergeant Has Already Been Indicted.

A Bloomberg investigation identified approximately $200 million in wagers on Kalshi and Polymarket between January and June 2026 displaying characteristics associated with potential insider trading — concentrated in geopolitical event markets. A federal indictment unsealed in April charged US Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke with using classified information about Operation Absolute Resolve, the operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, to generate $409,000 in profit. 57% of wallets with unusually successful returns were created within 24 hours of placing bets. The House Oversight Committee has launched a formal investigation.

July 21, 2026

Congress Is Holding a Hearing on Whether Prediction Markets Are Sports Bets — With No Prediction Market Companies in the Room

The House Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing on Tuesday July 22 on the status of sports event contracts, featuring the American Gaming Association, tribal gaming interests, and former CFTC attorneys — but no representatives from Kalshi, Polymarket, or any other prediction market platform. The AGA will argue that sports event contracts are sports bets. Former CFTC counsel will defend the agency's authority. The hearing comes as the World Cup winner market on Kalshi hit a record $1.9 billion in total volume — more than double this year's Super Bowl.

July 21, 2026

Washington State Becomes the 11th: Judge Rules Kalshi Likely Ran an Illegal Gambling Operation

King County Superior Court Judge John McHale granted Washington state a preliminary injunction against Kalshi on July 21, ruling the prediction market platform likely operated an illegal gambling operation under state law. McHale rejected Kalshi's CFTC-preemption defense. He asked both sides to present a compliance plan by the first week of August. Washington is the 11th state to take legal action — and the fourth where a court has ruled against Kalshi, after Michigan, Nevada, and New York.

July 19, 2026

The Argentina-Spain World Cup Final Became the Biggest Single-Match Prediction Market Contract in History

The Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Final at MetLife Stadium on July 19 produced the largest single-match event contract ever on a US prediction market exchange. Trading on Kalshi's Argentina-Spain winner market topped $1.27 billion — surpassing the Super Bowl, NBA Finals, and every prior US sports contract. Kalshi's total World Cup trading reached $40 billion across the tournament, and the platform added 3 million new users over the course of the competition.

July 18, 2026

Underdog Launches Its Own CFTC-Licensed Prediction Market Exchange — Ending Its Reliance on Kalshi

Underdog, the sports prediction and fantasy operator, launched its own federally licensed prediction market exchange on July 18, 2026, after acquiring two CFTC-registered entities — Aristotle Exchange DCM and Aristotle Exchange DCO — in March. Underdog was the first sports gaming company to offer prediction market access (through Kalshi and Crypto.com) in fall 2025. Going direct gives it full vertical control. The platform has $6.49 billion in cumulative notional volume, putting it third in the market behind Kalshi and Robinhood.

July 14, 2026

The CFTC Told Kalshi to Defy a State Court Order — and Kalshi Is Caught in the Middle

Michigan's Judge Aquilina extended Kalshi's sports-contract ban through August 12 on July 13, raising the daily fine to $500,000. The next day, CFTC Chairman Selig used the agency's emergency authority under the Commodity Exchange Act to order Kalshi to continue honoring Michigan trades — directly contradicting the state court's order. Kalshi is now caught between two conflicting legal mandates with no clear path to comply with both.

July 14, 2026

Prediction Markets Handled 10x More Than US Sportsbooks During the World Cup — and a Third Exchange Just Entered the Race

Prediction market platforms combined for over $50 billion in trading volume in June 2026 as the FIFA World Cup drove the sector's most active month on record — roughly ten times the $2.8–4.3 billion projected for US legal sportsbooks across the entire 104-match tournament. ADI Predictstreet, the FIFA official prediction market partner, co-branded with Kalshi in stadiums and on Fox Sports. Rothera, the exchange Robinhood built with Susquehanna International Group, processed $2 billion in its debut month.

July 13, 2026

Gibraltar Just Created the World's First Dedicated Prediction Market Regulatory Framework

Gibraltar's Prediction Market Regulations 2026 came into force on July 13, making Gibraltar the first jurisdiction in the world to create a standalone regulatory category for prediction markets — explicitly separate from gambling law. Licensed operators ADI Predictstreet and WagerWire received the first approvals. The framework allows stablecoins for deposits and settlement, restricts death and terrorism contracts, and is designed by Gibraltar as a potential European standard.

July 13, 2026

Kalshi Launches Pro: a Professional Trading Terminal That Signals What the Platform Is Becoming

Kalshi released Kalshi Pro on July 13, 2026 — a free professional trading terminal built on TradingView charts with a multi-market Canvas layout, take-profit/stop-loss orders, reduce-only orders, a max-slippage guard, and margin-risk alerts. The platform covers both prediction markets and crypto perpetual futures. It is the clearest signal yet that Kalshi is evolving from a consumer prediction app into a full-service derivatives exchange competing for institutional and professional traders.

July 10, 2026

Italy Re-Bans Polymarket — Putting a $22M Lazio FC Sponsorship Deal Under Italian Criminal Law

Italy's Customs and Monopolies Agency (ADM) added Polymarket to its blacklist of blocked websites for the second time in July 2026, re-classifying it as an unlicensed gambling operator. Polymarket had won a court reversal before the TAR Lazio administrative court in late 2025. The renewed block threatens Polymarket's $22 million sponsorship deal with Lazio FC: Italian law prohibits clubs from advertising unlicensed betting operations, potentially forcing Lazio to drop the partnership.

July 8, 2026

Kalshi Loses New York Ruling: Federal License Does Not Override State Gambling Law

US District Judge Analisa Torres of the Southern District of New York denied Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction on July 7, ruling that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt New York's gambling enforcement. The decision — Kalshi's own suit, not the CFTC's — hands state regulators another win and opens a second federal circuit on prediction market law. Kalshi appealed to the Second Circuit the same day.

July 7, 2026

Kalshi Is Now Blocking Michigan Users — and Faces a Nevada Contempt Hearing on July 16

For the first time, prediction market litigation has crossed from the courtroom to actual platform access restrictions. A Michigan state court issued a temporary restraining order on June 29 requiring Kalshi to halt sports contracts until July 13 — with $120,000-per-day fines for non-compliance — and Kalshi began geofencing Michigan users on July 7. Separately, Nevada is seeking to hold Kalshi in contempt after investigators successfully purchased prohibited contracts eight times while physically in the state. Polymarket also filed its first independent federal lawsuit, against New Mexico.

July 6, 2026

SportsPlatform news

Kalshi's June Volume Hit $9.4B — Its Best Month Ever — With Daily Trading Topping $1B During the World Cup

Kalshi recorded $9.4 billion in trading volume in June 2026, up from $5.3 billion in May and the platform's highest monthly total ever. Total notional volume exceeded $31 billion, and daily activity consistently topped $1 billion during the World Cup. Canada vs. Morocco alone drew $48 million on Kalshi and $26.8 million on Polymarket, the largest single-match figure yet.

July 3, 2026

Spotify to Kalshi and Polymarket: Remove Our Logo — Traders Pumped Streams to Win a $3M Bet

Spotify identified over 500,000 artificial streams injected into Malcolm Todd's song 'Earrings' to manipulate its US chart position — then sent formal letters on July 2 demanding that Kalshi and Polymarket remove its branding and clarify there is no partnership. The manipulation targeted a $3M Kalshi market on the most-streamed song in the US for June. Kalshi had already paid out bettors before the fraud was confirmed.

July 1, 2026

Google Bans Prediction Market Extensions From Chrome — Effective August 1, the Same Day as Minnesota's Felony Ban

Google announced on July 1 that it will ban Chrome Web Store extensions that facilitate real-money trading on prediction markets, effective August 1, 2026. The policy update is the second Google action against prediction markets in a month, following the Ohio advertising ban in June, and it coincides with the date Minnesota's felony ban on prediction-market operators takes effect — unless a federal court enjoins it first.

July 1, 2026

Meta Tried to Buy Kalshi. Talks Broke Down. Now Zuckerberg Is Building His Own — With Play Money.

NPR reported on June 30 that Meta's Mark Zuckerberg held acquisition talks with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour last year, but negotiations never advanced — either because Mansour would not sell or because Meta found the legal and regulatory complexity too messy. Meta is now building its own prediction market app, called Arena, which will use play money only. Separately, Bernstein analysts named Kalshi and Polymarket as likely M&A targets for DraftKings, Robinhood, or Coinbase.

June 26, 2026

Polymarket Hits $1B in Annualized Revenue — and Gets a CFTC Investigation on the Same Day

Six weeks after opening its US exchange to the public, Polymarket's annualized revenue surpassed $1 billion on June 26, 2026, with daily trading volume climbing from $50 million in mid-May to over $200 million. The milestone landed the same day CNBC and Bloomberg reported the CFTC is conducting a broad investigation into Polymarket — the same agency currently suing nine states to defend prediction markets in court.

June 26, 2026

SportsPlatform news

Kalshi Has $6.7B in World Cup Volume — Bank of America Now Estimates $12-13B by the Final

Two weeks into the 2026 FIFA World Cup, Kalshi reports $6.7 billion in total World Cup trading volume, with a Bank of America analyst note estimating the platform will reach $12-13 billion by the July 19 final. Polymarket's soccer category crossed $2 billion in its first ten days alone, a 300% jump on pre-tournament levels with daily volume hitting $220 million. The numbers already eclipse the most optimistic pre-tournament projections.

June 25, 2026

Kalshi Is Seeking a $40 Billion Valuation — Seven Weeks After Raising at $22 Billion

Kalshi is in talks for a new funding round at a $40 billion valuation, nearly doubling the $22 billion figure from its May 2026 Series F, according to the Financial Times. The company's annualized revenue has crossed $2 billion, and CEO Tarek Mansour confirmed the company is in early IPO discussions — though a listing will not happen before 2027. Combined Kalshi and Polymarket volume hit $44.8 billion in June, a 75% jump from May.

June 19, 2026

Michigan Judge Rules Sports Contracts Likely Aren't Swaps — the First Real Crack in the CFTC Preemption Wall

US District Judge Paul Maloney denied Polymarket and Robinhood a preliminary injunction on June 19, 2026, ruling that sports event contracts are likely not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that CFTC authority would 'sweep in activity that has traditionally belonged to state regulators.' It is the first significant court loss for the prediction-market side and turns the scattered district-court rulings into a Sixth Circuit split.

June 18, 2026

Kalshi Goes International: Wealthsimple to Bring ~4,000 Event Contracts to Canadian Retail Investors

Kalshi announced its first international expansion on June 18, 2026: a partnership with Canadian fintech Wealthsimple to launch Wealthsimple Predict, a standalone app giving Canadian traders access to roughly 4,000 Kalshi event contracts in the categories of climate, financial markets, and economic indicators. Sports and elections contracts are excluded under CIRO's March 2026 authorization. The announcement came hours before Canada's first World Cup match.

June 12, 2026

RegulationSports

CFTC's 267-Page Proposed Rule Would Allow Most Sports Contracts — But Bans Single-Play, Injury, and Officiating Bets

The CFTC's proposed prediction-market rule hit the Federal Register on June 12, 2026, opening a 45-day comment window closing July 27. It permits sports event contracts on final scores, point differentials, win-loss, tournament advancement, and statistical performance — but disallows single-play, in-game-fight, injury, officiating, and pre-collegiate contracts via a new three-step public-interest test.

June 12, 2026

Platform newsRegulationSports

CFTC Sues New Mexico — Eighth State in the Federal Preemption Fight, and the First Filed After the Proposed Rule Dropped

The CFTC sued New Mexico on June 12, 2026 to block the state from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction markets, days after AG Raúl Torrez sued Kalshi for offering unlicensed online sports betting. New Mexico is the eighth state the agency has sued. The complaint is the first to land after the CFTC's own proposed rule was released this week — a rule that explicitly supports most sports-related event contracts.

June 12, 2026

ProphetX Wins CFTC DCM and DCO Approval — the Sweepstakes-to-Prediction-Market Conversion Wave Begins

ProphetX, the former state-licensed sportsbook turned sweepstakes exchange, won CFTC approval this week for both a Designated Contract Market and a derivatives clearing organization, and will convert to a sports prediction market early next week. It is the first of an expected wave of sweepstakes operators — Novig and Sporttrade have applications pending — pivoting to federal regulation as states ban sweepstakes apps.

June 10, 2026

Google Bans Prediction-Market Ads in Ohio — Second State After Nevada, and Regulators Weren't Told First

Google updated its US prediction-markets advertising policy to prohibit ads for prediction-market contracts in Ohio, effective June 2, 2026. Ohio joins Nevada as the only states excluded since Google opened the category in January. The Ohio Casino Control Commission says it did not request the ban — adding a new, private-sector front to a fight that has so far run through courts and statehouses.

June 10, 2026

Kalshi Scrubs 'Bookmaking' and 'Sports Betting' From Its USPTO Filings — the Vocabulary Is Now a Legal Strategy

Kalshi's May trademark filings replaced the gambling terminology of its November 2025 USPTO submissions — which described 'bookmaking services' and 'sports betting and gambling tournaments' — with 'prediction market services' and 'trades and wagers.' The reframing lands while six state preemption suits, a pending CFTC rule, and a Congressional insider-trading probe all turn on exactly one question: is this product a financial instrument or a bet?

June 10, 2026

SportsPlatform news

The 2026 World Cup Is the First Mega-Event for US Prediction Markets — Kalshi and Polymarket Hit Record $7B Weekly Volume Going In

The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off June 11 in Mexico City with global wagers projected to top $50 billion — the biggest betting event in history. It is also the first World Cup where US traders can use prediction markets at full scale: Kalshi and Polymarket entered the week at a record $7 billion in combined weekly volume, Kalshi lists nearly 500 tournament markets, and a SEON survey puts prediction markets second only to licensed sportsbooks as the preferred way to bet the tournament.

June 9, 2026

Platform newsSports

DraftKings Predictions Hits $1.3B Annualized Consumer Volume in May; Railbird DCM and Combos Reshape the Competitive Field

DraftKings reported in an 8-K filing on June 9, 2026 that DraftKings Predictions ran $1.3 billion in annualized consumer volume in May, +24% month-over-month, with $3.1 billion in annualized total volume. The company is investing $200-300 million in prediction markets in 2026 and will launch its own DCM (Railbird), in-house exchange technology, and a Super App before year-end.

June 2, 2026

Polymarket Completes First Block Trade — Six-Figure FalconX/Anera Labs Hedge on Nvidia H100 GPU Pricing

Polymarket cleared its first institutional block trade on June 2, 2026 — a six-figure position between digital-asset brokerage FalconX and AI-risk startup Anera Labs on the Ornn Compute Price Index tracking Nvidia H100 rental rates. FalconX has signed on as dedicated market maker for future blocks. Polymarket lagged Kalshi by a month on this milestone but claims the first on-chain institutional prediction-market trade.

May 29, 2026

CFTC Files Federal Suit Against Rhode Island to Block Neronha Prosecution; Sixth State in Active Federal Preemption Litigation

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a complaint in the US District Court for the District of Rhode Island on May 29, 2026, three days after Kalshi's own federal counter-suit, asking the court to declare Rhode Island's gambling laws preempted as applied to CFTC-licensed event contracts. Chairman Michael Selig framed the state lawsuits as an "onslaught" attempting a "power grab."

May 29, 2026

Platform newsCrypto

Kalshi Launches Crypto Perpetual Futures, Becomes First Federally Regulated US Perps Venue

Kalshi announced on May 29, 2026 that it will list perpetual futures contracts on its CFTC-regulated exchange, starting with crypto perps. The company claims it is the first US firm in history to offer perpetual futures under federal regulation, putting it in direct competition with offshore venues like Binance, Bybit, and OKX.

May 27, 2026

CFTC's Proposed Prediction-Markets Rule Reaches White House OMB Review; Trump Posts Public Support

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission submitted a formal proposed rule for prediction-market regulation to the White House Office of Management and Budget on May 26, 2026. President Trump posted explicit support on social media, framing CFTC exclusive jurisdiction as critical infrastructure for the industry.

May 26, 2026

Rhode Island AG Sues Kalshi and Polymarket Over Sports Contracts; Kalshi Files Federal Counter-Suit the Same Day

Rhode Island Attorney General Peter F. Neronha filed state-court actions in Providence last week alleging Kalshi and Polymarket sports event contracts are illegal sports betting under RI law. Kalshi responded the same day with a federal preemption suit in the US District Court for Rhode Island.

May 26, 2026

Spain Initiates Disciplinary Proceedings Against Polymarket and Kalshi; Third Country to Block in 10 Days

Spain's gaming regulator ordered ISPs to block Polymarket and Kalshi access on May 26, 2026, opening formal disciplinary proceedings against both platforms for offering unlicensed betting products. Spain joins India and Indonesia in a coordinated 10-day wave of international blocking actions.

May 24, 2026

The CFTC Has Now Sued Five States Over Prediction Markets; Monthly Volume Has Hit $20 Billion

In 2026 the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has filed federal preemption suits against Arizona, Illinois, Connecticut, New York and Minnesota in defense of its exclusive jurisdiction over CFTC-licensed event-contract exchanges. Monthly platform volume has grown from $1.2B in early 2025 to over $20B today.

May 22, 2026

House Oversight Opens Formal Insider-Trading Probe Into Kalshi and Polymarket

Chairman James Comer sent document-demand letters to the CEOs of Kalshi and Polymarket on May 22, with a June 5 deadline, and signaled forthcoming legislation that would bar members of Congress, administration officials, and federal employees from trading prediction-market contracts.

May 22, 2026

India Blocks Polymarket Under New Online Gaming Act; Kalshi Order Reportedly Imminent

India's Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology has ordered ISPs to cut access to Polymarket, classifying event contracts as "online money gaming" under the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025. A similar order targeting Kalshi is reportedly being prepared.

May 20, 2026

Minnesota Becomes First US State to Criminalize Prediction Markets; CFTC Sues to Block the Law

Governor Tim Walz signed SF 4760 on May 19, 2026, making it a felony for prediction market operators to serve Minnesota residents starting August 1. The CFTC filed suit in federal district court the next day, arguing the law is preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act.

April 26, 2026

Governors Hochul and Pritzker Issue Executive Orders Banning Insider Trading on Prediction Markets

New York and Illinois governors issued the first US executive orders specifically targeting prediction market insider trading by state employees, prohibiting officials from using non-public government information to trade event contracts.

April 26, 2026

Study Finds $143M in Polymarket Insider Trading; Kalshi Fines Candidates and Issues $2.2M Refund

A law school study flagged $143 million in suspected insider-trading profits on Polymarket over two years and over 200,000 suspicious trades. Separately, Kalshi fined three political candidates who bet on their own races and issued $2.2M in refunds after a disputed Khamenei market.

April 26, 2026

Wisconsin AG Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, Crypto.com and Coinbase

Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul filed suit in state court seeking permanent injunctions against all five major US prediction market platforms, arguing event contracts constitute unlicensed gambling under state law regardless of federal CFTC licensing.

April 24, 2026

CryptoFundingPlatform news

Fort Bragg Soldier Arrested for Polymarket Insider Trading as Trump Calls Markets a Casino

Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was arrested for using classified intelligence about the Maduro operation to earn $400,000+ on Polymarket. Hours later, President Trump publicly opposed prediction market expansion, calling the world "something of a casino."

February 18, 2026

SportsRegulationFunding

Novig Raises $75M Series B to Pursue Nationwide Sports Exchange Licence

The commission-free sports prediction exchange raised $75M in a Series B round and filed for a CFTC Designated Contract Market licence that would unlock all 50 US states.

February 5, 2026

Myriad Markets Raises $20M Series A and Integrates Trust Wallet

The publisher-embedded prediction market SDK closed a $20M Series A and added Trust Wallet integration, giving millions of mobile crypto users direct access to its markets.

January 14, 2026

RegulationPlatform newsSports

Robinhood Becomes Fastest-Growing Prediction Market With 12B+ Contracts in 2025

Robinhood processed over 12 billion event contracts in 2025 and acquired MIAXdx to build its own CFTC-licensed exchange, positioning it to compete directly with Kalshi and ForecastEx.

December 10, 2025