Prediction Markets
News
CFTC rulings, platform launches, funding rounds, and regulatory shifts: everything that moves the US prediction market landscape.
Recent updates
IG Group Buys Underdog for $1.3 Billion โ The First Major Foreign Acquisition of a US Prediction Market Exchange
IG Group, the UK-listed financial trading platform, has agreed to acquire Underdog for approximately $1.3 billion โ 13 days after Underdog launched its own CFTC-licensed exchange. The deal gives IG Group a US designated contract market and derivatives clearing organization, making it the first international financial firm to acquire a licensed US prediction market venue. Underdog is currently the third-largest US prediction market by regulated notional volume, behind Kalshi and Robinhood.
Read more →An Independent Integrity Body Found 7 Betting Irregularities at the World Cup. FIFA Said There Were None. The Clash Centers on Polymarket.
The Group of Copenhagen โ the Council of Europe's independent match manipulation watchdog โ raised seven yellow notices for potential betting irregularities during the 2026 World Cup, in direct contradiction to FIFA's own Integrity Task Force, which published an all-clear on Tuesday. The most troubling finding involves Polymarket: the platform opened a market on July 2 asking whether Folarin Balogun would play against Belgium โ the same day Balogun received a red card and three days before FIFA publicly confirmed his ban was suspended. No equivalent markets were opened for any of the other 14 red cards shown at the tournament.
Read more →After Yesterday's Hearing, Congress Looks Ready to Legislate on Prediction Markets โ Not Just Watch
The House Agriculture Subcommittee held a two-hour hearing on July 22 examining sports event contracts, with witnesses from the American Gaming Association, tribal gaming, and both sides of the CFTC authority debate. Subcommittee Chair Dusty Johnson said Congress 'cannot afford to be silent' and signaled there is 'work for them to do.' Witnesses urged members to advance H.R. 7840, the Event Contract Enforcement Act, which would ban sports event contracts outright. The hearing adds a third front to a fight that is already being waged simultaneously in ten state courts and at the CFTC.
Read more →Bloomberg Found $200 Million in Suspicious Wagers on Kalshi and Polymarket. An Army Sergeant Has Already Been Indicted.
A Bloomberg investigation identified approximately $200 million in wagers on Kalshi and Polymarket between January and June 2026 displaying characteristics associated with potential insider trading โ concentrated in geopolitical event markets. A federal indictment unsealed in April charged US Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke with using classified information about Operation Absolute Resolve, the operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolรกs Maduro, to generate $409,000 in profit. 57% of wallets with unusually successful returns were created within 24 hours of placing bets. The House Oversight Committee has launched a formal investigation.
Read more →Congress Is Holding a Hearing on Whether Prediction Markets Are Sports Bets โ With No Prediction Market Companies in the Room
The House Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing on Tuesday July 22 on the status of sports event contracts, featuring the American Gaming Association, tribal gaming interests, and former CFTC attorneys โ but no representatives from Kalshi, Polymarket, or any other prediction market platform. The AGA will argue that sports event contracts are sports bets. Former CFTC counsel will defend the agency's authority. The hearing comes as the World Cup winner market on Kalshi hit a record $1.9 billion in total volume โ more than double this year's Super Bowl.
Read more →Washington State Becomes the 11th: Judge Rules Kalshi Likely Ran an Illegal Gambling Operation
King County Superior Court Judge John McHale granted Washington state a preliminary injunction against Kalshi on July 21, ruling the prediction market platform likely operated an illegal gambling operation under state law. McHale rejected Kalshi's CFTC-preemption defense. He asked both sides to present a compliance plan by the first week of August. Washington is the 11th state to take legal action โ and the fourth where a court has ruled against Kalshi, after Michigan, Nevada, and New York.
Read more →The Argentina-Spain World Cup Final Became the Biggest Single-Match Prediction Market Contract in History
The Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Final at MetLife Stadium on July 19 produced the largest single-match event contract ever on a US prediction market exchange. Trading on Kalshi's Argentina-Spain winner market topped $1.27 billion โ surpassing the Super Bowl, NBA Finals, and every prior US sports contract. Kalshi's total World Cup trading reached $40 billion across the tournament, and the platform added 3 million new users over the course of the competition.
Read more →Underdog Launches Its Own CFTC-Licensed Prediction Market Exchange โ Ending Its Reliance on Kalshi
Underdog, the sports prediction and fantasy operator, launched its own federally licensed prediction market exchange on July 18, 2026, after acquiring two CFTC-registered entities โ Aristotle Exchange DCM and Aristotle Exchange DCO โ in March. Underdog was the first sports gaming company to offer prediction market access (through Kalshi and Crypto.com) in fall 2025. Going direct gives it full vertical control. The platform has $6.49 billion in cumulative notional volume, putting it third in the market behind Kalshi and Robinhood.
Read more →The CFTC Told Kalshi to Defy a State Court Order โ and Kalshi Is Caught in the Middle
Michigan's Judge Aquilina extended Kalshi's sports-contract ban through August 12 on July 13, raising the daily fine to $500,000. The next day, CFTC Chairman Selig used the agency's emergency authority under the Commodity Exchange Act to order Kalshi to continue honoring Michigan trades โ directly contradicting the state court's order. Kalshi is now caught between two conflicting legal mandates with no clear path to comply with both.
Read more →Prediction Markets Handled 10x More Than US Sportsbooks During the World Cup โ and a Third Exchange Just Entered the Race
Prediction market platforms combined for over $50 billion in trading volume in June 2026 as the FIFA World Cup drove the sector's most active month on record โ roughly ten times the $2.8โ4.3 billion projected for US legal sportsbooks across the entire 104-match tournament. ADI Predictstreet, the FIFA official prediction market partner, co-branded with Kalshi in stadiums and on Fox Sports. Rothera, the exchange Robinhood built with Susquehanna International Group, processed $2 billion in its debut month.
Read more →Gibraltar Just Created the World's First Dedicated Prediction Market Regulatory Framework
Gibraltar's Prediction Market Regulations 2026 came into force on July 13, making Gibraltar the first jurisdiction in the world to create a standalone regulatory category for prediction markets โ explicitly separate from gambling law. Licensed operators ADI Predictstreet and WagerWire received the first approvals. The framework allows stablecoins for deposits and settlement, restricts death and terrorism contracts, and is designed by Gibraltar as a potential European standard.
Read more →Kalshi Launches Pro: a Professional Trading Terminal That Signals What the Platform Is Becoming
Kalshi released Kalshi Pro on July 13, 2026 โ a free professional trading terminal built on TradingView charts with a multi-market Canvas layout, take-profit/stop-loss orders, reduce-only orders, a max-slippage guard, and margin-risk alerts. The platform covers both prediction markets and crypto perpetual futures. It is the clearest signal yet that Kalshi is evolving from a consumer prediction app into a full-service derivatives exchange competing for institutional and professional traders.
Read more →Italy Re-Bans Polymarket โ Putting a $22M Lazio FC Sponsorship Deal Under Italian Criminal Law
Italy's Customs and Monopolies Agency (ADM) added Polymarket to its blacklist of blocked websites for the second time in July 2026, re-classifying it as an unlicensed gambling operator. Polymarket had won a court reversal before the TAR Lazio administrative court in late 2025. The renewed block threatens Polymarket's $22 million sponsorship deal with Lazio FC: Italian law prohibits clubs from advertising unlicensed betting operations, potentially forcing Lazio to drop the partnership.
Read more →Kalshi Loses New York Ruling: Federal License Does Not Override State Gambling Law
US District Judge Analisa Torres of the Southern District of New York denied Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction on July 7, ruling that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt New York's gambling enforcement. The decision โ Kalshi's own suit, not the CFTC's โ hands state regulators another win and opens a second federal circuit on prediction market law. Kalshi appealed to the Second Circuit the same day.
Read more →Kalshi Is Now Blocking Michigan Users โ and Faces a Nevada Contempt Hearing on July 16
For the first time, prediction market litigation has crossed from the courtroom to actual platform access restrictions. A Michigan state court issued a temporary restraining order on June 29 requiring Kalshi to halt sports contracts until July 13 โ with $120,000-per-day fines for non-compliance โ and Kalshi began geofencing Michigan users on July 7. Separately, Nevada is seeking to hold Kalshi in contempt after investigators successfully purchased prohibited contracts eight times while physically in the state. Polymarket also filed its first independent federal lawsuit, against New Mexico.
Read more →Kalshi's June Volume Hit $9.4B โ Its Best Month Ever โ With Daily Trading Topping $1B During the World Cup
Kalshi recorded $9.4 billion in trading volume in June 2026, up from $5.3 billion in May and the platform's highest monthly total ever. Total notional volume exceeded $31 billion, and daily activity consistently topped $1 billion during the World Cup. Canada vs. Morocco alone drew $48 million on Kalshi and $26.8 million on Polymarket, the largest single-match figure yet.
Read more →Spotify to Kalshi and Polymarket: Remove Our Logo โ Traders Pumped Streams to Win a $3M Bet
Spotify identified over 500,000 artificial streams injected into Malcolm Todd's song 'Earrings' to manipulate its US chart position โ then sent formal letters on July 2 demanding that Kalshi and Polymarket remove its branding and clarify there is no partnership. The manipulation targeted a $3M Kalshi market on the most-streamed song in the US for June. Kalshi had already paid out bettors before the fraud was confirmed.
Read more →Google Bans Prediction Market Extensions From Chrome โ Effective August 1, the Same Day as Minnesota's Felony Ban
Google announced on July 1 that it will ban Chrome Web Store extensions that facilitate real-money trading on prediction markets, effective August 1, 2026. The policy update is the second Google action against prediction markets in a month, following the Ohio advertising ban in June, and it coincides with the date Minnesota's felony ban on prediction-market operators takes effect โ unless a federal court enjoins it first.
Read more →Meta Tried to Buy Kalshi. Talks Broke Down. Now Zuckerberg Is Building His Own โ With Play Money.
NPR reported on June 30 that Meta's Mark Zuckerberg held acquisition talks with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour last year, but negotiations never advanced โ either because Mansour would not sell or because Meta found the legal and regulatory complexity too messy. Meta is now building its own prediction market app, called Arena, which will use play money only. Separately, Bernstein analysts named Kalshi and Polymarket as likely M&A targets for DraftKings, Robinhood, or Coinbase.
Read more →Polymarket Hits $1B in Annualized Revenue โ and Gets a CFTC Investigation on the Same Day
Six weeks after opening its US exchange to the public, Polymarket's annualized revenue surpassed $1 billion on June 26, 2026, with daily trading volume climbing from $50 million in mid-May to over $200 million. The milestone landed the same day CNBC and Bloomberg reported the CFTC is conducting a broad investigation into Polymarket โ the same agency currently suing nine states to defend prediction markets in court.
Read more →Kalshi Has $6.7B in World Cup Volume โ Bank of America Now Estimates $12-13B by the Final
Two weeks into the 2026 FIFA World Cup, Kalshi reports $6.7 billion in total World Cup trading volume, with a Bank of America analyst note estimating the platform will reach $12-13 billion by the July 19 final. Polymarket's soccer category crossed $2 billion in its first ten days alone, a 300% jump on pre-tournament levels with daily volume hitting $220 million. The numbers already eclipse the most optimistic pre-tournament projections.
Read more →Kalshi Is Seeking a $40 Billion Valuation โ Seven Weeks After Raising at $22 Billion
Kalshi is in talks for a new funding round at a $40 billion valuation, nearly doubling the $22 billion figure from its May 2026 Series F, according to the Financial Times. The company's annualized revenue has crossed $2 billion, and CEO Tarek Mansour confirmed the company is in early IPO discussions โ though a listing will not happen before 2027. Combined Kalshi and Polymarket volume hit $44.8 billion in June, a 75% jump from May.
Read more →Michigan Judge Rules Sports Contracts Likely Aren't Swaps โ the First Real Crack in the CFTC Preemption Wall
US District Judge Paul Maloney denied Polymarket and Robinhood a preliminary injunction on June 19, 2026, ruling that sports event contracts are likely not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that CFTC authority would 'sweep in activity that has traditionally belonged to state regulators.' It is the first significant court loss for the prediction-market side and turns the scattered district-court rulings into a Sixth Circuit split.
Read more →Kalshi Goes International: Wealthsimple to Bring ~4,000 Event Contracts to Canadian Retail Investors
Kalshi announced its first international expansion on June 18, 2026: a partnership with Canadian fintech Wealthsimple to launch Wealthsimple Predict, a standalone app giving Canadian traders access to roughly 4,000 Kalshi event contracts in the categories of climate, financial markets, and economic indicators. Sports and elections contracts are excluded under CIRO's March 2026 authorization. The announcement came hours before Canada's first World Cup match.
Read more →CFTC's 267-Page Proposed Rule Would Allow Most Sports Contracts โ But Bans Single-Play, Injury, and Officiating Bets
The CFTC's proposed prediction-market rule hit the Federal Register on June 12, 2026, opening a 45-day comment window closing July 27. It permits sports event contracts on final scores, point differentials, win-loss, tournament advancement, and statistical performance โ but disallows single-play, in-game-fight, injury, officiating, and pre-collegiate contracts via a new three-step public-interest test.
Read more →CFTC Sues New Mexico โ Eighth State in the Federal Preemption Fight, and the First Filed After the Proposed Rule Dropped
The CFTC sued New Mexico on June 12, 2026 to block the state from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction markets, days after AG Raรบl Torrez sued Kalshi for offering unlicensed online sports betting. New Mexico is the eighth state the agency has sued. The complaint is the first to land after the CFTC's own proposed rule was released this week โ a rule that explicitly supports most sports-related event contracts.
Read more →ProphetX Wins CFTC DCM and DCO Approval โ the Sweepstakes-to-Prediction-Market Conversion Wave Begins
ProphetX, the former state-licensed sportsbook turned sweepstakes exchange, won CFTC approval this week for both a Designated Contract Market and a derivatives clearing organization, and will convert to a sports prediction market early next week. It is the first of an expected wave of sweepstakes operators โ Novig and Sporttrade have applications pending โ pivoting to federal regulation as states ban sweepstakes apps.
Read more →Google Bans Prediction-Market Ads in Ohio โ Second State After Nevada, and Regulators Weren't Told First
Google updated its US prediction-markets advertising policy to prohibit ads for prediction-market contracts in Ohio, effective June 2, 2026. Ohio joins Nevada as the only states excluded since Google opened the category in January. The Ohio Casino Control Commission says it did not request the ban โ adding a new, private-sector front to a fight that has so far run through courts and statehouses.
Read more →Kalshi Scrubs 'Bookmaking' and 'Sports Betting' From Its USPTO Filings โ the Vocabulary Is Now a Legal Strategy
Kalshi's May trademark filings replaced the gambling terminology of its November 2025 USPTO submissions โ which described 'bookmaking services' and 'sports betting and gambling tournaments' โ with 'prediction market services' and 'trades and wagers.' The reframing lands while six state preemption suits, a pending CFTC rule, and a Congressional insider-trading probe all turn on exactly one question: is this product a financial instrument or a bet?
Read more →The 2026 World Cup Is the First Mega-Event for US Prediction Markets โ Kalshi and Polymarket Hit Record $7B Weekly Volume Going In
The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off June 11 in Mexico City with global wagers projected to top $50 billion โ the biggest betting event in history. It is also the first World Cup where US traders can use prediction markets at full scale: Kalshi and Polymarket entered the week at a record $7 billion in combined weekly volume, Kalshi lists nearly 500 tournament markets, and a SEON survey puts prediction markets second only to licensed sportsbooks as the preferred way to bet the tournament.
Read more →DraftKings Predictions Hits $1.3B Annualized Consumer Volume in May; Railbird DCM and Combos Reshape the Competitive Field
DraftKings reported in an 8-K filing on June 9, 2026 that DraftKings Predictions ran $1.3 billion in annualized consumer volume in May, +24% month-over-month, with $3.1 billion in annualized total volume. The company is investing $200-300 million in prediction markets in 2026 and will launch its own DCM (Railbird), in-house exchange technology, and a Super App before year-end.
Read more →Polymarket Completes First Block Trade โ Six-Figure FalconX/Anera Labs Hedge on Nvidia H100 GPU Pricing
Polymarket cleared its first institutional block trade on June 2, 2026 โ a six-figure position between digital-asset brokerage FalconX and AI-risk startup Anera Labs on the Ornn Compute Price Index tracking Nvidia H100 rental rates. FalconX has signed on as dedicated market maker for future blocks. Polymarket lagged Kalshi by a month on this milestone but claims the first on-chain institutional prediction-market trade.
Read more →CFTC Files Federal Suit Against Rhode Island to Block Neronha Prosecution; Sixth State in Active Federal Preemption Litigation
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a complaint in the US District Court for the District of Rhode Island on May 29, 2026, three days after Kalshi's own federal counter-suit, asking the court to declare Rhode Island's gambling laws preempted as applied to CFTC-licensed event contracts. Chairman Michael Selig framed the state lawsuits as an "onslaught" attempting a "power grab."
Read more →Kalshi Launches Crypto Perpetual Futures, Becomes First Federally Regulated US Perps Venue
Kalshi announced on May 29, 2026 that it will list perpetual futures contracts on its CFTC-regulated exchange, starting with crypto perps. The company claims it is the first US firm in history to offer perpetual futures under federal regulation, putting it in direct competition with offshore venues like Binance, Bybit, and OKX.
Read more →CFTC's Proposed Prediction-Markets Rule Reaches White House OMB Review; Trump Posts Public Support
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission submitted a formal proposed rule for prediction-market regulation to the White House Office of Management and Budget on May 26, 2026. President Trump posted explicit support on social media, framing CFTC exclusive jurisdiction as critical infrastructure for the industry.
Read more →Rhode Island AG Sues Kalshi and Polymarket Over Sports Contracts; Kalshi Files Federal Counter-Suit the Same Day
Rhode Island Attorney General Peter F. Neronha filed state-court actions in Providence last week alleging Kalshi and Polymarket sports event contracts are illegal sports betting under RI law. Kalshi responded the same day with a federal preemption suit in the US District Court for Rhode Island.
Read more →Spain Initiates Disciplinary Proceedings Against Polymarket and Kalshi; Third Country to Block in 10 Days
Spain's gaming regulator ordered ISPs to block Polymarket and Kalshi access on May 26, 2026, opening formal disciplinary proceedings against both platforms for offering unlicensed betting products. Spain joins India and Indonesia in a coordinated 10-day wave of international blocking actions.
Read more →The CFTC Has Now Sued Five States Over Prediction Markets; Monthly Volume Has Hit $20 Billion
In 2026 the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has filed federal preemption suits against Arizona, Illinois, Connecticut, New York and Minnesota in defense of its exclusive jurisdiction over CFTC-licensed event-contract exchanges. Monthly platform volume has grown from $1.2B in early 2025 to over $20B today.
Read more →House Oversight Opens Formal Insider-Trading Probe Into Kalshi and Polymarket
Chairman James Comer sent document-demand letters to the CEOs of Kalshi and Polymarket on May 22, with a June 5 deadline, and signaled forthcoming legislation that would bar members of Congress, administration officials, and federal employees from trading prediction-market contracts.
Read more →India Blocks Polymarket Under New Online Gaming Act; Kalshi Order Reportedly Imminent
India's Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology has ordered ISPs to cut access to Polymarket, classifying event contracts as "online money gaming" under the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025. A similar order targeting Kalshi is reportedly being prepared.
Read more →Minnesota Becomes First US State to Criminalize Prediction Markets; CFTC Sues to Block the Law
Governor Tim Walz signed SF 4760 on May 19, 2026, making it a felony for prediction market operators to serve Minnesota residents starting August 1. The CFTC filed suit in federal district court the next day, arguing the law is preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act.
Read more →Governors Hochul and Pritzker Issue Executive Orders Banning Insider Trading on Prediction Markets
New York and Illinois governors issued the first US executive orders specifically targeting prediction market insider trading by state employees, prohibiting officials from using non-public government information to trade event contracts.
Read more →Study Finds $143M in Polymarket Insider Trading; Kalshi Fines Candidates and Issues $2.2M Refund
A law school study flagged $143 million in suspected insider-trading profits on Polymarket over two years and over 200,000 suspicious trades. Separately, Kalshi fined three political candidates who bet on their own races and issued $2.2M in refunds after a disputed Khamenei market.
Read more →Wisconsin AG Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, Crypto.com and Coinbase
Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul filed suit in state court seeking permanent injunctions against all five major US prediction market platforms, arguing event contracts constitute unlicensed gambling under state law regardless of federal CFTC licensing.
Read more →Fort Bragg Soldier Arrested for Polymarket Insider Trading as Trump Calls Markets a Casino
Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was arrested for using classified intelligence about the Maduro operation to earn $400,000+ on Polymarket. Hours later, President Trump publicly opposed prediction market expansion, calling the world "something of a casino."
Read more →Novig Raises $75M Series B to Pursue Nationwide Sports Exchange Licence
The commission-free sports prediction exchange raised $75M in a Series B round and filed for a CFTC Designated Contract Market licence that would unlock all 50 US states.
Read more →Myriad Markets Raises $20M Series A and Integrates Trust Wallet
The publisher-embedded prediction market SDK closed a $20M Series A and added Trust Wallet integration, giving millions of mobile crypto users direct access to its markets.
Read more →Robinhood Becomes Fastest-Growing Prediction Market With 12B+ Contracts in 2025
Robinhood processed over 12 billion event contracts in 2025 and acquired MIAXdx to build its own CFTC-licensed exchange, positioning it to compete directly with Kalshi and ForecastEx.
Read more →Polymarket Acquires QCEX CFTC Licence for US Relaunch, ICE Takes $2B Stake
Polymarket acquired QCEX, a CFTC-licensed designated contract market, to power a compliant US product, and secured a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE owner).
Read more →CFTC Drops Enforcement Case Against Kalshi Sports Markets
The CFTC ended its legal challenge to Kalshi's sports event contracts, confirming Kalshi can offer sports outcomes as regulated event contracts under its DCM licence. A landmark ruling for regulated prediction markets.
Read more →Why we cover prediction market news
Regulation changes fast
CFTC rulings, court decisions, and DCM licence approvals directly affect which platforms you can use in your state and what products are available.
Fees and liquidity shift
Platform funding rounds, acquisitions, and exchange integrations affect the depth of markets and the cost of trading. Knowing the landscape helps you find best prices.
New markets open up
Sports, politics, crypto, economics: the range of tradable outcomes expands as platforms earn regulatory approvals and build out their market listings.