Taiwan and Norway Move Against Kalshi — International Blocks Spread on Two Different Legal Theories
International enforcement against prediction markets accelerated in mid-October. A New Taipei District Court ordered Taiwan to block Kalshi and Coinbase on October 15 under Taiwan's election law, which prohibits profit-driven gambling tied to election results, roughly six weeks before Taiwan's November 28 local elections. Separately, Norway's gambling regulator Lotteritilsynet proposed DNS-blocking 62 unlicensed sites including Kalshi and Polymarket, with operators given until October 15 to respond. The two actions rest on different legal theories — election-integrity law in Taiwan, gambling-licensing law in Norway — but both add to the growing list of countries treating the platforms as unauthorized.
International enforcement against prediction markets accelerated in mid-October 2026 with new actions in Taiwan and Norway. In Taiwan, the New Taipei District Court ordered internet service providers to block Kalshi and Coinbase on October 15, roughly six weeks before Taiwan's local elections on November 28. The legal basis is Taiwan's Public Officials Election and Recall Act, which prohibits profit-driven gambling linked to election or recall results. Some users reported access problems around October 14, a day before the court's authorization was confirmed. Taiwanese authorities have not publicly established that either company engaged in illegal election betting; the block is a preventive measure tied to the approaching election. Kalshi has said it does not allow trading in China, and its presence in the Taiwanese market was limited, but the court-ordered block formalizes its exclusion ahead of the vote.
The Taiwan action is notable for its legal theory. Most international enforcement against prediction markets — in the Czech Republic, Belgium, France, Germany, Spain, and Romania — has proceeded under gambling-licensing law, on the theory that the platforms offer gambling products without the required national gambling license. Taiwan's action instead rests on election-integrity law specifically: the concern is not that the platforms are unlicensed gambling in general, but that election betting could corrupt or influence Taiwan's democratic process. This is the same category of concern that US election officials have raised about the 2026 midterms, and it reflects a distinct regulatory anxiety that is heightened in the immediate run-up to an election. Taiwan, which faces persistent concern about external interference in its elections, has particular sensitivity to any mechanism that could be used to influence or profit from electoral outcomes.
Norway's action follows the more common gambling-licensing pattern. The Norwegian Gambling Authority, Lotteritilsynet, proposed blocking 62 unlicensed websites including Kalshi and Polymarket, notifying the operators of its plan to use DNS blocking to prevent the sites from loading for Norwegian users. The operators were given until October 15 to respond before a final decision. Norway operates one of the most restrictive gambling regimes in Europe, with a state monopoly model that reserves most gambling to state-controlled operators, so the inclusion of prediction market platforms among unlicensed operators to be blocked is consistent with Norway's broader approach. The regulator's director acknowledged that users can circumvent DNS blocks with VPNs or by changing browser settings — a candid recognition that the block reduces casual access rather than eliminating it entirely, which is true of all the ISP-level blocks that European regulators have imposed.
The accumulation of international actions reinforces the structural difference between the platforms' US and international legal positions. In the US, Kalshi and Polymarket can invoke the federal preemption argument — that CFTC registration overrides state gambling law — and that argument is pending before the Supreme Court. Internationally, no equivalent argument exists: each country applies its own gambling or election law, and CFTC registration confers no rights abroad. The list of countries that have blocked or moved to block the platforms now includes the Czech Republic, Belgium, France, Germany, Spain, Romania, Norway, and Taiwan, spanning two legal theories (gambling licensing and election integrity) and two continents. The international enforcement does not threaten the platforms' core business, which is overwhelmingly US-based, but it forecloses international expansion as a growth avenue and establishes a global pattern of regulators concluding that prediction market event contracts are gambling or election-interference risks requiring restriction. That international consensus is itself a data point that US state regulators and the parties urging SCOTUS to rule against the platforms can cite: when regulators across two continents independently reach the same conclusion about the nature of these products, it strengthens the argument that the products are what they appear to be.
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Recent updates
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