매수호가, 매도호가, 스프레드 설명
Bid, ask, and spread are the three numbers every event-contract trader should read before placing an order. They tell you the actual price you can trade at, how much the venue or other traders are charging you to take the other side, and how liquid the market really is.
매수호가, 매도호가, 스프레드 설명
Bid: the best price to sell at
The bid is the highest price any buyer is currently willing to pay for a share. If the best bid on a YES contract is $0.54, that means the most aggressive buyer is offering 54¢. If you want to sell YES immediately, you'll get 54¢ per share (minus fees).
Ask: the best price to buy at
The ask (also called the offer) is the lowest price any seller is currently willing to accept. If the best ask on the same YES contract is $0.57, that means the cheapest offer is 57¢. If you want to buy YES immediately, you'll pay 57¢ per share.
Spread: the cost of immediacy
The spread is the difference between the bid and the ask. In this example, $0.57 − $0.54 = $0.03, or three cents. That's the implicit cost of trading in and out of the market instantly. Tight spreads (one cent or less) indicate a liquid, well-arbitraged market. Wide spreads (five cents or more) indicate thin liquidity and usually mean the implied probability reading is noisier than it looks. A worked example: if you buy 100 YES shares at $0.57 and immediately sell them at $0.54, you lose $3.00 just on the round-trip, before any move in the underlying probability. That's why event-contract traders wait for tight spreads before trading size.
이 시리즈의 관련 가이드
예측 시장에서 내재 확률이란 무엇인가?
0.62달러에 거래되는 YES 주식이 시장 내재 확률 약 62%를 의미하는 이유, 그리고 이 해석이 무너지는 경우.
시리즈예측 시장의 오더북 vs AMM
Kalshi와 Polymarket은 오더북을 사용하고, 초기 온체인 플랫폼은 자동화 마켓메이커(AMM)를 사용한다. 각 방식이 위험을 다르게 가격에 반영하는 방법.
시리즈LMSR(로그 시장 채점 규칙)이란 무엇인가?
Robin Hanson이 예측 시장을 위해 설계한 마켓메이커 공식, 손실을 제한하는 이유, 그리고 여전히 사용하는 곳.