Czech Republic Blocks Kalshi From October 15 — Polymarket Already Blocked Since July
The Czech Ministry of Finance listed Kalshi as an unauthorised gambling operator on September 30, requiring ISPs to block it by October 15. Polymarket was similarly blocked in July 2026. Both major US prediction market platforms are now blocked or under active enforcement in at least six European jurisdictions: Czech Republic, Belgium, France, Romania, Spain, and Germany. European regulators treat prediction market sports contracts as gambling regardless of CFTC regulatory status.
The Czech Ministry of Finance added Kalshi to its list of unauthorised gambling operators on September 30, 2026. ISPs have 15 days to comply, blocking Kalshi for Czech users from October 15. The case was brought by the Czech Institute for Gambling Regulation (IPRH), representing over 90% of the Czech licensed gambling sector — the same industry-body route that Czech authorities used to block Polymarket in July 2026. Both major US-regulated prediction market platforms are now blocked in the Czech Republic.
For UK readers, the Czech position is directly analogous to the Gambling Commission's position on unlicensed offshore operators: platforms offering products that meet the UK definition of gambling to UK customers require a UK Gambling Commission licence, regardless of their regulatory status in their home jurisdiction. The Czech MoF applies the same logic: Kalshi's CFTC designation as a US designated contract market is a US regulatory status with no legal force in the Czech Republic. Czech gambling law applies to any operator offering what Czech authorities classify as gambling to Czech users, and prediction market sports contracts meet that definition. VPN access remains possible after an ISP block, just as it does for UK-unlicensed sites, but most retail users will not use VPNs, so the practical access is effectively terminated.
The European enforcement landscape now includes Belgium, France, Romania, Spain, Germany, and the Czech Republic — six member states having taken formal action against one or both platforms. The EU has not harmonised gambling law, and each state's enforcement is independent, but the convergence of position across six jurisdictions is notable: all have concluded that prediction market sports contracts are gambling products requiring national licences. None has accepted the CFTC-designation argument as a basis for exemption. Spain's Ministry of Consumer Affairs launched legal action against both platforms in May 2026; Germany's GlüStV classifies sports event contracts as regulated gambling; France's ANJ and Belgium's Gaming Commission have both listed the platforms as unauthorised operators.
The structural difference between US and European enforcement is important for understanding the platforms' strategic options. In the US, Kalshi and Polymarket can invoke federal preemption — arguing that the CFTC's CEA jurisdiction displaces state gambling law — and that argument is currently pending at the Supreme Court. In Europe, there is no equivalent federal-law argument available. The EU has not harmonised gambling law, so there is no 'EU-level CFTC' whose authority supersedes member-state gambling law. Platforms can lobby European legislators for a regulatory carve-out, or obtain gambling licences in each jurisdiction, or accept blocking and confine their commercial attention to the US market. Given that European retail volume is small relative to US volume, the most pragmatic path for both platforms is likely to accept European blocking while focusing legal and lobbying resources on the US federal preemption question — which, if resolved in their favour by SCOTUS, would at least secure their home market regardless of what European regulators do.
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Recent updates
SCOTUS Publishes First Orders List — No Prediction Market Cases Granted Yet
The Supreme Court published its first orders list of the new term on October 2 — three cases granted, no prediction market cases. The absence was expected: Kalshi's response briefs to the New Jersey and Robinhood petitions are still pending. The Court typically conferences petitions a few weeks after all responses are in. Legal observers expect a prediction market cert decision in late October or November 2026.
Kalshi Finalising $1 Billion Raise at $40 Billion Valuation Ahead of IPO
Bloomberg reported on September 30 that Kalshi is finalising a new $1 billion funding round at a ~$40 billion valuation — the company's last planned private round before an IPO expected as early as 2027. Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management lead; Tiger Global and Dragoneer also participating. Kalshi was valued at $11 billion in December 2025 and $22 billion in March 2026 — a near four-fold increase in under a year. Polymarket closed a $1 billion round in September at a $15-20 billion valuation.
Sixth Circuit Joins Ninth Against Kalshi — Ohio and Tennessee Can Regulate Sports Contracts
The Sixth Circuit ruled unanimously on September 25 that Ohio and Tennessee can apply their gambling laws to Kalshi's sports event contracts — the second circuit loss for Kalshi in a month. The panel held the contracts are not 'swaps' under the CEA, and alternatively that the CEA doesn't preempt state gambling law even if they are. The circuit split is now 2-1 against Kalshi (Third Circuit for; Sixth and Ninth against), sharply increasing the pressure on the Supreme Court to take the case.