SCOTUS Publishes First Orders List — No Prediction Market Cases Granted Yet
The Supreme Court published its first orders list of the new term on October 2 — three cases granted, no prediction market cases. The absence was expected: Kalshi's response briefs to the New Jersey and Robinhood petitions are still pending. The Court typically conferences petitions a few weeks after all responses are in. Legal observers expect a prediction market cert decision in late October or November 2026.
The US Supreme Court published its first orders list of the October 2026-2027 term on October 2, granting certiorari in three cases — none of them prediction market cases. The result was expected. The Court rarely acts on cert petitions before all responses are filed, and Kalshi's response briefs to both the New Jersey petition (Third Circuit, September 2) and the Robinhood petition (Ninth Circuit, September 9) are still outstanding. Once responses are in — likely early to mid-October — the Court adds the petitions to a conference schedule, and a cert decision typically follows a few weeks later. The most likely window for a prediction market cert decision is late October or November 2026.
For UK readers, the SCOTUS cert process at this stage is analogous to the UK Supreme Court's permission-to-appeal stage, except that the US Court selects only 60-80 cases from roughly 7,000 petitions annually. The standard conditions for cert are present in the prediction market cases: an explicit circuit split (Third Circuit for Kalshi, Ninth and Sixth against), a question of national importance (CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over a $14B+ weekly volume market), and active enforcement litigation in more than ten states that will remain unresolved until the federal preemption question is definitively answered. Three circuits having ruled on the same question and produced two different answers is a classic basis for cert.
The Sixth Circuit's September 25 ruling — which added a second circuit to the anti-Kalshi column after the Ninth Circuit's August 28 ruling — was delivered just three days before the long conference and after New Jersey and Robinhood had already filed their petitions. The Sixth Circuit ruling is not the subject of either pending cert petition, but it is part of the factual record that the Court considers when evaluating whether a circuit split is broad enough to warrant review. Kalshi's and the petitioners' response briefs will almost certainly reference the Sixth Circuit ruling as further evidence of the circuit split's depth. A third-circuit conflict on the same question, with the most economically significant trading activity in the dispute, gives the Court a strong basis for action.
The October-November cert decision window coincides with an unusually dense calendar: Missouri's compliance deadline (October 18), the FOMC meeting (October 28-29), the midterm elections (November 3), Kalshi's CFTC margin programme go-live date (around November 5), and the expected close of Kalshi's $40 billion fundraising round. A cert grant during this window would not stay the lower court proceedings automatically — the platforms would need to separately seek a stay from SCOTUS — but it would immediately change the legal dynamic in every active state enforcement case. A cert denial would be the signal for states to escalate enforcement with renewed confidence. The prediction market sector's entire regulatory trajectory for 2027 will be heavily shaped by what the Court announces at its late October or November conference.
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Recent updates
Czech Republic Blocks Kalshi From October 15 — Polymarket Already Blocked Since July
The Czech Ministry of Finance listed Kalshi as an unauthorised gambling operator on September 30, requiring ISPs to block it by October 15. Polymarket was similarly blocked in July 2026. Both major US prediction market platforms are now blocked or under active enforcement in at least six European jurisdictions: Czech Republic, Belgium, France, Romania, Spain, and Germany. European regulators treat prediction market sports contracts as gambling regardless of CFTC regulatory status.
Kalshi Finalising $1 Billion Raise at $40 Billion Valuation Ahead of IPO
Bloomberg reported on September 30 that Kalshi is finalising a new $1 billion funding round at a ~$40 billion valuation — the company's last planned private round before an IPO expected as early as 2027. Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management lead; Tiger Global and Dragoneer also participating. Kalshi was valued at $11 billion in December 2025 and $22 billion in March 2026 — a near four-fold increase in under a year. Polymarket closed a $1 billion round in September at a $15-20 billion valuation.
Sixth Circuit Joins Ninth Against Kalshi — Ohio and Tennessee Can Regulate Sports Contracts
The Sixth Circuit ruled unanimously on September 25 that Ohio and Tennessee can apply their gambling laws to Kalshi's sports event contracts — the second circuit loss for Kalshi in a month. The panel held the contracts are not 'swaps' under the CEA, and alternatively that the CEA doesn't preempt state gambling law even if they are. The circuit split is now 2-1 against Kalshi (Third Circuit for; Sixth and Ninth against), sharply increasing the pressure on the Supreme Court to take the case.