Kalshi Seeks Ninth Circuit En Banc Rehearing While Robinhood Files Separate SCOTUS Petition
Kalshi petitioned the full Ninth Circuit (11 judges) for en banc rehearing of the August 28 3-0 ruling for Nevada on September 9. On the same day, Robinhood filed a separate SCOTUS certiorari petition from the same ruling, going directly to the Supreme Court. New Jersey already has a SCOTUS petition filed from the Third Circuit's April ruling. Two cert petitions now sit before SCOTUS on the prediction market question.
Kalshi petitioned the Ninth Circuit for en banc rehearing on September 9, asking the full 11-judge court to overturn the August 28 3-0 panel ruling that Nevada can regulate sports event contracts as gambling. En banc review asks the full circuit — rather than the 3-judge panel — to reconsider a ruling. Kalshi argues the panel ruling conflicts with the Third Circuit's April ruling and that an exceptionally important preemption question requires full-court guidance. Simultaneously, Robinhood filed a separate SCOTUS certiorari petition directly challenging the same Ninth Circuit ruling — bypassing the en banc step. Two platforms, one defeat, two divergent legal strategies.
For UK readers, the en banc process is closest in function to the UK Supreme Court granting leave to appeal a Court of Appeal decision, but within the same court. The Ninth Circuit's en banc procedure brings together all active circuit judges (up to 11 sit on a typical en banc panel) to reconsider a smaller panel's ruling. It is used when a losing party believes the panel ruling conflicts with established circuit precedent, creates an inter-circuit split, or raises a question of exceptional importance. Kalshi's petition cites all three. The grant rate for en banc petitions is roughly 1-2% overall, but higher when an acknowledged circuit split exists. Denying en banc here — when the Ninth Circuit panel openly acknowledged conflicting with the Third Circuit — would be unusual. Grant is more likely than average, though still far from certain.
Robinhood's direct SCOTUS petition is the more aggressive move. Rather than waiting for en banc consideration, Robinhood treats the circuit split as already established and fully briefed — which it is — and invites SCOTUS to take the case directly. New Jersey's cert petition (filed September 2) asks SCOTUS to review the Third Circuit ruling that went for Kalshi. Robinhood's petition (filed September 9) asks SCOTUS to review the Ninth Circuit ruling that went against Robinhood. The two petitions approach the same federal statutory question from opposite circuit outcomes. SCOTUS can consolidate them. With two cert petitions already docketed and a third expected from Kalshi after the en banc result, the prediction market question will be among the most-petitioned issues before the Court in its October 2026 term.
The strategy divergence between Kalshi and Robinhood likely reflects their different positions in the state enforcement landscape. Kalshi is simultaneously fighting enforcement actions in Michigan, Nevada, Washington, Connecticut, and several other states under CFTC emergency order protection; going to SCOTUS without first exhausting Ninth Circuit options could produce a Supreme Court ruling more quickly than the enforcement situation has stabilised. Robinhood — which just agreed to exit Michigan sports contracts voluntarily — has a cleaner enforcement picture and can afford to move faster toward SCOTUS without the same parallel-litigation complexity. For prediction market observers, the combination of Kalshi's en banc petition and Robinhood's direct SCOTUS petition means the legal endgame is accelerating on two tracks simultaneously, with a Massachusetts SJC decision also expected within weeks. The prediction market legal calendar in September-October 2026 is as dense as any period in the sector's history.
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Utah Files Felony Charges Against Kalshi and Its Founders — Second State to Criminally Charge a Platform
Utah filed criminal charges against Kalshi and its two co-founders, Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, on October 28 — 13 felonies and a misdemeanour, including a second-degree 'pattern of unlawful criminal activity' count and 12 counts of online gambling promotion. The charges stem from a September sting in which an undercover agent placed 12 sports wagers verified to be in Utah. The CFTC sued Utah the day before to block state enforcement, its tenth such suit. Utah is the second state after Arizona to criminally charge Kalshi, and the first to charge the founders personally. Kalshi called it a 'crazy overreach.'
NBA Names Kalshi and Polymarket Preferred Exchanges — Leaving the NFL Alone in Opposition
The NBA announced on October 26 that it has named Kalshi and Polymarket its 'preferred prediction market exchanges,' signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with the CFTC on basketball integrity, and expanded its DraftKings deal to include prediction markets — the first league to extend a sportsbook partnership into the category. The exchange deals bar league and team personnel from trading NBA contracts, limit permissible markets, and require sharing suspicious-trading data, in exchange for NBA intellectual property and official data. The NBA joins MLB, the NHL, and MLS as partnered leagues, leaving the NFL as the lone major holdout — and the only league fighting the platforms in court.
CFTC Chair Says Agency Is Watching Prediction Markets for Manipulation Ahead of Midterms
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said on October 23 that the agency is closely monitoring prediction markets for manipulation ahead of the November 3 midterms, and that it is separately scrutinising oil market trading tied to President Trump's announcements about the war in Iran. Combined midterm open interest on Kalshi and Polymarket stood at $250 million as of October 18, with Kalshi holding 84%. Selig acknowledged the agency often catches political figures trading 'oftentimes after the fact.' The remarks highlight the CFTC's dual role as both the platforms' federal protector and their manipulation watchdog.