Kalshi Is Now Blocking Michigan Users — and Faces a Nevada Contempt Hearing on 16 July
Prediction market litigation has crossed from courtrooms to actual platform access restrictions. A Michigan state court issued a temporary restraining order on 29 June requiring Kalshi to halt sports contracts until 13 July — $120,000-per-day fines for non-compliance — and Kalshi began geofencing Michigan users on 7 July. Nevada is seeking to hold Kalshi in contempt after investigators purchased prohibited contracts eight times while in the state. Polymarket filed its first independent federal lawsuit, against New Mexico.
The prediction-market litigation wave has produced its first concrete platform-access restrictions. On 29 June, Ingham County Circuit Court Judge Rosemarie Aquilina signed a temporary restraining order obtained by Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel, requiring KalshiEx to halt sports event contracts in the state until 13 July, on penalty of $120,000 per day. Kalshi said it would comply while contesting the underlying lawsuit, and on 7 July the platform began blocking Michigan users from its sports markets — the first case where a court order has caused visible, on-the-ground changes to what prediction market users can access.
The Michigan TRO comes on top of the 19 June ruling by US District Judge Paul Maloney, who denied Polymarket and Robinhood a federal preliminary injunction on preemption grounds. That ruling was a legal loss; the TRO is an operational one. Michigan users can still access non-sports Kalshi markets, but the state has enforced a partial product block while litigation continues. The $120,000 daily fine creates strong compliance pressure regardless of how the underlying case resolves. An appeal of the Maloney ruling is proceeding in the Sixth Circuit.
In Nevada, the situation is further along and more troubled for Kalshi. The Nevada Gaming Control Board obtained a state-court preliminary injunction on 18 May requiring Kalshi to geofence sports, election, and entertainment contracts from Nevada residents. The Nevada Supreme Court denied Kalshi's bid to pause that order. NGCB investigators then found they could successfully purchase prohibited contracts on eight separate occasions across four days (28-31 May and 1 June) while physically in Nevada, exploiting gaps in Kalshi's $190,000 IP-address-based geofencing system. A full-day contempt hearing is scheduled for 16 July.
The Nevada contempt case raises a question the whole sector must answer: what constitutes technically adequate geofencing? IP-based blocking is the industry starting point but is circumvented by VPNs, mobile data roaming, and certain carrier configurations. More accurate verification — GPS, cell-tower triangulation — is feasible but adds user friction and privacy questions. How courts evaluate 'good-faith compliance' will set the standard for every subsequent injunction. The third development: Polymarket filed its own federal lawsuit in New Mexico on 1 July — its first independent preemption case without the CFTC as lead plaintiff — after New Mexico twice rejected requests to delay enforcement pending the Kalshi case. Ten states are now in active litigation. We have updated our litigation scoreboard to reflect Nevada as the tenth state and the changed status in Michigan and New Mexico.
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Recent updates
Crypto.com and Novig Sue Missouri as Market Leaders Hold Back — Eighth Circuit Now in Play via Iowa
Crypto.com and Novig filed federal lawsuits on October 16 challenging Missouri's cease-and-desist orders, arguing their sports event contracts fall under exclusive CFTC jurisdiction. The suits came as Missouri's 30-day compliance window closed. Notably, the market leaders — Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Underdog — have not sued; Missouri said it is in 'ongoing discussions' with Kalshi. The outcome is tied to the Eighth Circuit, now weighing the same question in Kalshi's Iowa appeal — the fourth federal circuit to take up the prediction market question.
Ohio Escalates Post-Sixth Circuit — Cease-and-Desist to 10 Operators, but Platforms Keep Operating
Emboldened by its Sixth Circuit win, Ohio escalated enforcement. Governor Mike DeWine and the Ohio Casino Control Commission issued cease-and-desist letters dated October 2 to 10 operators, including Polymarket and Robinhood, with an October 16 deadline and penalties up to the value gained from contracts. Kalshi was excluded because a court order already covers it. As of October 20, platforms were still operating in Ohio despite the deadline. Polymarket has sued the Commission and AG Andy Wilson; Wilson is expected to sue non-compliant operators.
Midterm Election Betting Tops $220M — Double the Entire 2024 Cycle — as Public Opposition Mounts
Traders have wagered more than $220 million on the 2026 US congressional midterms across Kalshi and Polymarket, more than double the $92 million bet across the entire 2024 cycle, according to a Reuters analysis of Anti-Corruption Data Collective data published October 14. The 2026 cycle has more than 21,000 individual markets, up from 463 in 2024. Volume is concentrated in a few races, led by the Texas Senate contest. The growth comes despite a Reuters/Ipsos poll finding most Americans oppose using prediction markets to bet on elections.