NBA Names Kalshi and Polymarket Preferred Exchanges — Leaving the NFL Alone in Opposition
The NBA announced on October 26 that it has named Kalshi and Polymarket its 'preferred prediction market exchanges,' signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with the CFTC on basketball integrity, and expanded its DraftKings deal to include prediction markets — the first league to extend a sportsbook partnership into the category. The exchange deals bar league and team personnel from trading NBA contracts, limit permissible markets, and require sharing suspicious-trading data, in exchange for NBA intellectual property and official data. The NBA joins MLB, the NHL, and MLS as partnered leagues, leaving the NFL as the lone major holdout — and the only league fighting the platforms in court.
The National Basketball Association announced on October 26, 2026 that it has designated Kalshi and Polymarket its preferred prediction market exchanges, establishing commercial partnerships with both alongside an integrity framework. The league also signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with the CFTC on cooperation and information sharing related to NBA prediction markets, and expanded its DraftKings agreement to include prediction markets and nationwide promotion — making the NBA the first league to extend a sportsbook partnership into the category. Under the exchange deals, Kalshi and Polymarket receive NBA intellectual property and official league data; in exchange, they limit the permissible markets they offer on NBA events, bar league and team personnel from trading NBA contracts, and share suspicious-trading information with the league.
For UK readers, this resembles a major sports governing body signing official data and integrity-monitoring deals with betting operators — standard practice in UK sport — except that here the counterpart regulator is the US commodities regulator, not a gambling regulator, which carries legal significance. The NBA's move completes a shift building through 2026 and leaves the NFL increasingly isolated. MLB named Polymarket its exclusive partner, the NHL signed with both platforms, and MLS struck an exclusive Polymarket deal. The NBA's announcement makes it the latest major league to embrace the category, leaving the NFL — the single largest driver of prediction market sports volume — as the only major American league not partnered with the platforms, and the only one actively opposing them in court via its October 8 Supreme Court amicus brief.
The structural significance is that the NBA deal undercuts the argument the NFL and state regulators are making in the litigation. Leagues that partner implicitly treat prediction market contracts as legitimate products around which integrity frameworks can be built, not as illegal gambling to be stopped. The NBA's MOU with the CFTC is especially notable: a major league entering a cooperation agreement with the federal commodities regulator, rather than with state gambling regulators, tacitly endorses the CFTC's claim to jurisdiction. When the NFL tells the Supreme Court these are gambling products subject to state law, the NBA's decision to work with the CFTC on basketball integrity is a competing signal from an equally authoritative source. The sports industry is now split not just commercially but on the underlying legal question of who should regulate these markets.
There is an irony worth noting: the NBA is headquartered in New York, one of the states most aggressively suing the platforms for illegal gambling. The league's embrace of Kalshi and Polymarket while its home-state attorney general litigates against them captures the incoherence of the moment — different institutions reaching opposite conclusions about the same products at the same time, commercial logic running against regulatory logic. For the platforms, each league partnership is a valuable counterweight to the enforcement campaign: it makes the contracts harder to characterise as straightforwardly illegal and provides integrity frameworks and official data that strengthen legitimacy claims. The NFL's continued opposition remains the most significant holdout given football's dominance of sports volume, but the platforms can now point to four of the five major American leagues as partners. The question is whether the NFL's resistance reflects a genuinely different assessment of the risks, or simply a stronger negotiating position it intends to exploit before eventually signing its own deal.
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Utah Files Felony Charges Against Kalshi and Its Founders — Second State to Criminally Charge a Platform
Utah filed criminal charges against Kalshi and its two co-founders, Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, on October 28 — 13 felonies and a misdemeanour, including a second-degree 'pattern of unlawful criminal activity' count and 12 counts of online gambling promotion. The charges stem from a September sting in which an undercover agent placed 12 sports wagers verified to be in Utah. The CFTC sued Utah the day before to block state enforcement, its tenth such suit. Utah is the second state after Arizona to criminally charge Kalshi, and the first to charge the founders personally. Kalshi called it a 'crazy overreach.'
CFTC Chair Says Agency Is Watching Prediction Markets for Manipulation Ahead of Midterms
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said on October 23 that the agency is closely monitoring prediction markets for manipulation ahead of the November 3 midterms, and that it is separately scrutinising oil market trading tied to President Trump's announcements about the war in Iran. Combined midterm open interest on Kalshi and Polymarket stood at $250 million as of October 18, with Kalshi holding 84%. Selig acknowledged the agency often catches political figures trading 'oftentimes after the fact.' The remarks highlight the CFTC's dual role as both the platforms' federal protector and their manipulation watchdog.
Pentagon Bars Personnel From Trading on Military Information After $400K Prediction Market Scandal
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued an October 20 memo barring Department of Defense personnel from making financial transactions using non-public information, explicitly naming Polymarket and Kalshi. The directive follows the prosecution of a Special Forces soldier accused of making more than $400,000 on Polymarket by betting on a mission to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Hegseth's rationale is a national-security concern: a bet on a military outcome creates a market signal adversaries can read. 'Our enemies watch movements in these markets,' the memo states.