Ohio Escalates Post-Sixth Circuit — Cease-and-Desist to 10 Operators, but Platforms Keep Operating
Emboldened by its Sixth Circuit win, Ohio escalated enforcement. Governor Mike DeWine and the Ohio Casino Control Commission issued cease-and-desist letters dated October 2 to 10 operators, including Polymarket and Robinhood, with an October 16 deadline and penalties up to the value gained from contracts. Kalshi was excluded because a court order already covers it. As of October 20, platforms were still operating in Ohio despite the deadline. Polymarket has sued the Commission and AG Andy Wilson; Wilson is expected to sue non-compliant operators.
Ohio moved from litigation to active enforcement after its September 25 Sixth Circuit victory. Governor Mike DeWine and the Ohio Casino Control Commission issued cease-and-desist letters dated October 2, 2026 to 10 operators, including Polymarket and Robinhood, with an October 16 compliance deadline and penalties that could reach the value operators gained from the contracts. Kalshi was not among the 10 — reporting indicates this is because a court order already defines what the state requires of Kalshi after the Sixth Circuit ruling in the consolidated Ohio and Tennessee case. That ruling held Ohio can apply its gambling laws to Kalshi's sports event contracts, giving Ohio binding appellate authority within the circuit.
For UK readers, this is the stage where a regulator with a favourable court ruling moves from warning letters to active enforcement, and the operators respond by continuing to trade while challenging the regulator in court — a standoff familiar from Gambling Commission actions against operators who dispute jurisdiction. As of October 20, reporting indicated the platforms were still offering sports event contracts in Ohio despite the deadline passing. Their position rests on the federal preemption argument and on the fact that the Sixth Circuit ruling, though adverse, is part of the broader dispute now before the Supreme Court. Polymarket went further and sued the Ohio Casino Control Commission and AG Andy Wilson, arguing the enforcement conflicts with the Commerce Clause and is preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act.
Ohio is preparing for direct litigation. AG Wilson is expected to sue operators that keep offering sports event contracts past the deadline, and DeWine has signalled the state will move to enforcement rather than warnings. This sets up a confrontation in a circuit where the state already holds a favourable appellate ruling. Ohio's position is stronger than states in other circuits because the Sixth Circuit has already ruled it can regulate these contracts — so Ohio does not face the uncertainty about governing law that states in circuits without a ruling confront. If Ohio sues, it can cite binding Sixth Circuit precedent, putting the platforms in the difficult position of defying an appellate ruling that directly governs their conduct in the state.
The Ohio standoff shows the limits of the platforms' wait-for-SCOTUS strategy. In states without a circuit ruling, or in the Third Circuit where Kalshi won, continuing to operate while the Supreme Court question is pending is defensible. But in the Sixth Circuit, where binding precedent now holds the states can regulate, continuing to operate is closer to defiance of a controlling ruling than good-faith reliance on an open question. The platforms are betting the Supreme Court will reverse the Sixth Circuit, and that operating in the interim will not expose them to penalties that survive a favourable SCOTUS ruling. Ohio is betting the opposite — that its appellate win lets it enforce now, and that penalties for continued operation will accumulate regardless of what the Supreme Court eventually decides. It is the first real test of what happens when a state with binding circuit precedent meets platforms determined to keep operating until the Supreme Court speaks.
Operators mentioned in this article
Recent updates
Crypto.com and Novig Sue Missouri as Market Leaders Hold Back — Eighth Circuit Now in Play via Iowa
Crypto.com and Novig filed federal lawsuits on October 16 challenging Missouri's cease-and-desist orders, arguing their sports event contracts fall under exclusive CFTC jurisdiction. The suits came as Missouri's 30-day compliance window closed. Notably, the market leaders — Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Underdog — have not sued; Missouri said it is in 'ongoing discussions' with Kalshi. The outcome is tied to the Eighth Circuit, now weighing the same question in Kalshi's Iowa appeal — the fourth federal circuit to take up the prediction market question.
Midterm Election Betting Tops $220M — Double the Entire 2024 Cycle — as Public Opposition Mounts
Traders have wagered more than $220 million on the 2026 US congressional midterms across Kalshi and Polymarket, more than double the $92 million bet across the entire 2024 cycle, according to a Reuters analysis of Anti-Corruption Data Collective data published October 14. The 2026 cycle has more than 21,000 individual markets, up from 463 in 2024. Volume is concentrated in a few races, led by the Texas Senate contest. The growth comes despite a Reuters/Ipsos poll finding most Americans oppose using prediction markets to bet on elections.
Taiwan and Norway Move Against Kalshi — International Blocks Spread on Two Different Legal Theories
International enforcement against prediction markets accelerated in mid-October. A New Taipei District Court ordered Taiwan to block Kalshi and Coinbase on October 15 under Taiwan's election law, which prohibits profit-driven gambling tied to election results, roughly six weeks before Taiwan's November 28 local elections. Separately, Norway's regulator Lotteritilsynet proposed DNS-blocking 62 unlicensed sites including Kalshi and Polymarket, with operators given until October 15 to respond. The two actions rest on different legal theories — election-integrity law in Taiwan, gambling-licensing law in Norway.