Taiwan and Norway Move Against Kalshi — International Blocks Spread on Two Different Legal Theories
International enforcement against prediction markets accelerated in mid-October. A New Taipei District Court ordered Taiwan to block Kalshi and Coinbase on October 15 under Taiwan's election law, which prohibits profit-driven gambling tied to election results, roughly six weeks before Taiwan's November 28 local elections. Separately, Norway's regulator Lotteritilsynet proposed DNS-blocking 62 unlicensed sites including Kalshi and Polymarket, with operators given until October 15 to respond. The two actions rest on different legal theories — election-integrity law in Taiwan, gambling-licensing law in Norway.
International enforcement against prediction markets accelerated in mid-October 2026 with new actions in Taiwan and Norway. In Taiwan, the New Taipei District Court ordered ISPs to block Kalshi and Coinbase on October 15, roughly six weeks before Taiwan's local elections on November 28. The legal basis is Taiwan's Public Officials Election and Recall Act, which prohibits profit-driven gambling linked to election or recall results. Some users reported access problems around October 14, a day before the court's authorisation was confirmed. Taiwanese authorities have not publicly established that either company engaged in illegal election betting; the block is a preventive measure tied to the approaching election. Kalshi's presence in Taiwan was limited, but the court order formalises its exclusion ahead of the vote.
For UK readers, the contrast between the two actions is instructive. Taiwan's block rests on election-integrity law, not gambling law: the concern is specifically that election betting could corrupt or influence the democratic process, the same anxiety US election officials have voiced about the 2026 midterms. Taiwan, which faces persistent concern about external interference in its elections, is especially sensitive to any mechanism to influence or profit from electoral outcomes. Norway's action follows the more common gambling-licensing pattern: the Norwegian Gambling Authority, Lotteritilsynet, proposed DNS-blocking 62 unlicensed sites including Kalshi and Polymarket, giving operators until October 15 to respond. Norway runs one of Europe's most restrictive gambling regimes, a state-monopoly model, so including the platforms among unlicensed operators is consistent with its broader approach. The regulator's director acknowledged users can circumvent DNS blocks with VPNs — a candid admission that the block reduces casual access rather than eliminating it, true of all the European ISP-level blocks.
The two legal theories matter. Most international enforcement — in the Czech Republic, Belgium, France, Germany, Spain, and Romania — has proceeded under gambling-licensing law, on the theory that the platforms offer gambling without the required national licence. Taiwan's election-integrity basis is a distinct rationale, heightened in the immediate run-up to a vote, and one that could be invoked by other jurisdictions holding elections. The platforms now face restriction on two separate grounds internationally: that they are unlicensed gambling, and that they pose an election-integrity risk. Neither ground has any connection to the US federal preemption argument the platforms rely on domestically.
The accumulation reinforces the structural difference between the platforms' US and international positions. In the US, Kalshi and Polymarket can invoke federal preemption — that CFTC registration overrides state gambling law — now pending before the Supreme Court. Internationally, no equivalent exists: each country applies its own gambling or election law, and CFTC registration confers no rights abroad. The list of countries that have blocked or moved to block the platforms now spans the Czech Republic, Belgium, France, Germany, Spain, Romania, Norway, and Taiwan — two legal theories, two continents. The international enforcement does not threaten the platforms' overwhelmingly US-based core business, but it forecloses international expansion as a growth avenue and establishes a global pattern of regulators concluding that prediction market event contracts require restriction. That international consensus is itself a data point US state regulators and the parties urging SCOTUS to rule against the platforms can cite: when regulators across two continents independently reach the same conclusion, it strengthens the argument that the products are what they appear to be.
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Recent updates
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