The 2026 World Cup Is the First Mega-Event for US Prediction Markets — Kalshi and Polymarket Hit Record $7bn Weekly Volume Going In
The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off 11 June in Mexico City with global wagers projected to top $50 billion — the biggest betting event in history. It is also the first World Cup where US traders can use prediction markets at full scale: Kalshi and Polymarket entered the week at a record $7 billion in combined weekly volume, and Kalshi lists nearly 500 tournament markets.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off Thursday 11 June in Mexico City and runs six weeks to the 19 July final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey — 48 teams, 104 matches, and the largest betting event ever staged. Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon projects global wagers could top $50 billion, up from more than $35 billion at Qatar 2022, driven by 40 additional matches, North American time zones, and dramatically broader legal access in the US: about 65% of the US population now has legal sports betting, versus roughly 40% during the last tournament. Deutsche Bank pegs US handle alone at about $3.3 billion, with FanDuel taking roughly $1.3 billion and DraftKings $1.1 billion.
For prediction markets this is the first mega-event at full scale, and the platforms enter it at record levels. Piper Sandler reports Kalshi and Polymarket combined grew 13% week-over-week to $7 billion in weekly trading volume — an all-time high. Kalshi lists nearly 500 unique tournament markets, with the most volume on the 19 July final, where Spain and France lead the implied probabilities. Kalshi has also signed a data deal with Sportradar covering professional football, baseball, hockey, and UFC. A SEON survey found 29% of respondents prefer licensed betting apps for World Cup wagers, but 19% now choose prediction markets — ahead of social casinos, crypto platforms, and offshore books.
For UK readers the contrast with home is sharp: prediction markets remain unavailable to UK customers (neither Kalshi nor Polymarket holds FCA permissions), so the tournament will be bet through Gambling Commission licensees — Flutter's Paddy Power and Sky Bet, Entain's Ladbrokes and Coral, bet365 — where the affordability-check regime introduced since the last World Cup will face its first six-week stress test. Macquarie names Flutter the best-positioned operator globally; CEO Peter Jackson notes about 200 million people watch a Super Bowl, while 1.5 billion watched the Qatar final and five billion watched some of that tournament.
Two caveats belong in any honest preview. First, six US states are in active federal litigation over prediction markets, and a mid-tournament ruling could change platform availability with little notice — though the final on 19 July lands before Minnesota's 1 August felony ban takes effect. Second, the responsible-gambling concern deserves its volume: Gamban co-founder Matt Zarb-Cousin (a familiar voice in UK gambling-reform debates) told CNBC the World Cup will be "like March Madness on steroids" for the industry, and the SEON survey found nearly a quarter of respondents admitted to multi-accounting for promotions. A six-week event with 104 matches is exactly the environment where deposit limits earn their keep.
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