The 2026 World Cup Is the First Mega-Event for US Prediction Markets — Kalshi and Polymarket Hit Record $7bn Weekly Volume Going In
The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off 11 June in Mexico City with global wagers projected to top $50 billion — the biggest betting event in history. It is also the first World Cup where US traders can use prediction markets at full scale: Kalshi and Polymarket entered the week at a record $7 billion in combined weekly volume, and Kalshi lists nearly 500 tournament markets.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off Thursday 11 June in Mexico City and runs six weeks to the 19 July final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey — 48 teams, 104 matches, and the largest betting event ever staged. Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon projects global wagers could top $50 billion, up from more than $35 billion at Qatar 2022, driven by 40 additional matches, North American time zones, and dramatically broader legal access in the US: about 65% of the US population now has legal sports betting, versus roughly 40% during the last tournament. Deutsche Bank pegs US handle alone at about $3.3 billion, with FanDuel taking roughly $1.3 billion and DraftKings $1.1 billion.
For prediction markets this is the first mega-event at full scale, and the platforms enter it at record levels. Piper Sandler reports Kalshi and Polymarket combined grew 13% week-over-week to $7 billion in weekly trading volume — an all-time high. Kalshi lists nearly 500 unique tournament markets, with the most volume on the 19 July final, where Spain and France lead the implied probabilities. Kalshi has also signed a data deal with Sportradar covering professional football, baseball, hockey, and UFC. A SEON survey found 29% of respondents prefer licensed betting apps for World Cup wagers, but 19% now choose prediction markets — ahead of social casinos, crypto platforms, and offshore books.
For UK readers the contrast with home is sharp: prediction markets remain unavailable to UK customers (neither Kalshi nor Polymarket holds FCA permissions), so the tournament will be bet through Gambling Commission licensees — Flutter's Paddy Power and Sky Bet, Entain's Ladbrokes and Coral, bet365 — where the affordability-check regime introduced since the last World Cup will face its first six-week stress test. Macquarie names Flutter the best-positioned operator globally; CEO Peter Jackson notes about 200 million people watch a Super Bowl, while 1.5 billion watched the Qatar final and five billion watched some of that tournament.
Two caveats belong in any honest preview. First, six US states are in active federal litigation over prediction markets, and a mid-tournament ruling could change platform availability with little notice — though the final on 19 July lands before Minnesota's 1 August felony ban takes effect. Second, the responsible-gambling concern deserves its volume: Gamban co-founder Matt Zarb-Cousin (a familiar voice in UK gambling-reform debates) told CNBC the World Cup will be "like March Madness on steroids" for the industry, and the SEON survey found nearly a quarter of respondents admitted to multi-accounting for promotions. A six-week event with 104 matches is exactly the environment where deposit limits earn their keep.
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Recent updates
Utah Files Felony Charges Against Kalshi and Its Founders — Second State to Criminally Charge a Platform
Utah filed criminal charges against Kalshi and its two co-founders, Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, on October 28 — 13 felonies and a misdemeanour, including a second-degree 'pattern of unlawful criminal activity' count and 12 counts of online gambling promotion. The charges stem from a September sting in which an undercover agent placed 12 sports wagers verified to be in Utah. The CFTC sued Utah the day before to block state enforcement, its tenth such suit. Utah is the second state after Arizona to criminally charge Kalshi, and the first to charge the founders personally. Kalshi called it a 'crazy overreach.'
NBA Names Kalshi and Polymarket Preferred Exchanges — Leaving the NFL Alone in Opposition
The NBA announced on October 26 that it has named Kalshi and Polymarket its 'preferred prediction market exchanges,' signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with the CFTC on basketball integrity, and expanded its DraftKings deal to include prediction markets — the first league to extend a sportsbook partnership into the category. The exchange deals bar league and team personnel from trading NBA contracts, limit permissible markets, and require sharing suspicious-trading data, in exchange for NBA intellectual property and official data. The NBA joins MLB, the NHL, and MLS as partnered leagues, leaving the NFL as the lone major holdout — and the only league fighting the platforms in court.
CFTC Chair Says Agency Is Watching Prediction Markets for Manipulation Ahead of Midterms
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said on October 23 that the agency is closely monitoring prediction markets for manipulation ahead of the November 3 midterms, and that it is separately scrutinising oil market trading tied to President Trump's announcements about the war in Iran. Combined midterm open interest on Kalshi and Polymarket stood at $250 million as of October 18, with Kalshi holding 84%. Selig acknowledged the agency often catches political figures trading 'oftentimes after the fact.' The remarks highlight the CFTC's dual role as both the platforms' federal protector and their manipulation watchdog.