Best Prediction Market
for Economics in 2026
Economics prediction markets cover Federal Reserve rate decisions, CPI inflation prints, GDP estimates, non-farm payrolls, and Treasury yields: the same data points that move financial markets. For macro traders, these markets offer binary bets on economic outcomes with no need for complex derivatives. Here are the best US platforms ranked.
Our #1 recommendation for economics
Kalshi
Kalshi's economics catalog is the broadest of any US prediction market. Every FOMC meeting has multiple rate contracts, CPI prints are covered monthly, and GDP markets run every quarter. All in USD, no crypto wallet, available in all 50 states. The 0–7% profit fee only applies to winners: no fee on losing trades.
- FOMC rate markets: every meeting, multiple outcome contracts
- CPI / PCE: monthly inflation data markets
- GDP: quarterly advance and revision markets
- NFP + unemployment: monthly labor market markets
- Treasury yields: 10-year, 2-year end-of-quarter markets
Every economics prediction market platform, reviewed
Kalshi
kalshi.com · 0–7% of net profitWhy it ranks #1
Kalshi has the widest economics market catalog of any US platform. Real-money USD, CFTC regulation, and no crypto required make it the default choice for economics traders. The public REST API lets systematic traders build algorithmic strategies on economic data releases.
Fee, access, settlement
- Fee: 0–7% of net profit
- Settlement: USD
- US states: All 50 US states
- Requires crypto: No
ForecastEx / IBKR
interactivebrokers.com · No commission (spread)Why it ranks #2
ForecastEx (accessible via Interactive Brokers) is the choice for institutional and systematic traders. Portfolio margining allows you to net economic event contract delta against your existing equity and futures positions. The IBKR TWS API provides full programmatic access, and commission-free trading (revenue from spread) minimizes friction.
Fee, access, settlement
- Fee: No commission (spread)
- Settlement: USD
- US states: All 50 US states
- Requires crypto: No
Webull
webull.com · $0.02 per contractWhy it ranks #3
If you already trade stocks on Webull, the economics event contracts are available right inside your existing brokerage account with no new KYC. The catalog is a curated subset of Kalshi's — primarily Fed, CPI, GDP, which covers the markets most relevant to equity traders. Limitation: narrower catalog than Kalshi direct.
Fee, access, settlement
- Fee: $0.02 per contract
- Settlement: USD
- US states: All 50 US states
- Requires crypto: No
Polymarket QCEX
polymarket.com · ~2% taker feeWhy it ranks #4
Polymarket has deep liquidity on global macro and financial markets, particularly crypto-correlated and international economic outcomes. The USDC settlement and waitlist access are barriers for pure USD traders, but for global macro players comfortable with crypto, Polymarket's international economic coverage is unmatched.
Fee, access, settlement
- Fee: ~2% taker fee
- Settlement: USDC (stablecoin)
- US states: Most US states (NY blocked)
- Requires crypto: Yes: USDC
Comparison table
| Feature | Kalshi | IBKR/ForecastEx | Webull | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market breadth (economics) | Fed, CPI, GDP, NFP, yields, more | Fed, CPI, GDP, yields, employment | Fed, CPI, GDP (Kalshi subset) | Global macro, crypto, financial |
| Fee model | 0–7% of net profit | No commission | $0.02/contract | ~2% taker fee |
| Settlement | USD | USD | USD | USDC (crypto) |
| API access | Yes: public REST API | Yes: TWS API + IB Gateway | No dedicated API | Yes: on-chain |
| Portfolio margining | No | Yes | No | No |
| 1099 tax form | Yes | Yes | Yes | No: self-report |
| US state access | All 50 states | All 50 states | All 50 states | Most (NY blocked) |
Common questions
What prediction market has the best Fed rate markets? +
Kalshi has the deepest FOMC rate decision markets: every meeting, multiple contracts per outcome. ForecastEx via IBKR covers similar markets with the added benefit of API access for systematic traders.
Can I trade CPI and GDP outcomes on prediction markets? +
Yes. Kalshi offers monthly CPI markets, core CPI, PCE inflation, and quarterly GDP advance estimates. ForecastEx via IBKR covers similar releases. These are binary contracts: above/below threshold, not continuous price exposure.
Is Kalshi or IBKR better for economic prediction markets? +
Kalshi for retail breadth and simplicity. IBKR/ForecastEx for institutional users who want API, portfolio margining, and integration with equity/futures positions. Most retail traders should start with Kalshi.
Can I use economic prediction markets to hedge my stock portfolio? +
Yes, though the hedge is imperfect. If you hold long equity positions and want to hedge against a hawkish Fed surprise, you can buy NO contracts on "Will the Fed cut rates?": these contracts pay off if the Fed holds or hikes, offsetting equity losses. IBKR/ForecastEx is best for this use case because portfolio margining lets you net the delta.
Related guides
How to trade on Kalshi
Step-by-step account setup, funding, order types, and fee explanation for Kalshi economics markets.
GuideHow to trade on IBKR
ForecastEx setup, API access, and portfolio margining for institutional economics traders.
ComparisonKalshi vs Interactive Brokers
Side-by-side: catalog, fees, API, and who each platform is built for.