Kalshi vs Polymarket:
Full 2026 Comparison

You're in the US and want regulation

• You want USD settlement with no crypto wallet
• You want sports event contracts (elections, championships)
• You want maximum regulatory protection (CFTC-licensed DCM)
• You want weather, economic, or US-specific markets
• You prefer trading inside an app rather than via a wallet

You want the deepest liquidity globally

• You're outside the US (Polymarket is globally accessible)
• You're comfortable with USDC and a crypto wallet
• You want the highest liquidity on major political markets
• You want on-chain settlement (no custodian risk)
• You're a US user willing to join the licensed-app waitlist

Fully CFTC-regulated

Kalshi is the first and only prediction market exchange to hold a CFTC designated contract market (DCM) licence — the same category as the CME and CBOE. Customer funds are held in segregated USD accounts at regulated custodians. The CFTC dropped its enforcement case against Kalshi in May 2025. For US users, this is the gold standard for regulatory protection.

CFTC settlement + licensed relaunch

Polymarket settled with the CFTC in 2022 for $1.4M, restricting US retail access on its main platform. It then acquired QCEX — a licensed CFTC derivatives exchange — and is rolling out a fully-regulated US app via a waitlist. Outside the US, Polymarket operates as an on-chain platform accessible to anyone with a wallet; it sits outside most national regulatory frameworks. In October 2025, Intercontinental Exchange (owner of the NYSE) announced a $2B investment.

$2B+ in 2025, growing fast

Kalshi processed over $2 billion in 2025 volume — substantial for a regulated venue but well behind Polymarket globally. Where Kalshi leads: US-specific economic contracts (Fed rate decisions, CPI prints), weather, and sports. These categories have no equivalent on Polymarket. Kalshi's orderbooks on election markets are deep enough for most retail traders but thinner than Polymarket on the same markets.

$8B+ lifetime, globally the deepest

Polymarket is the most liquid prediction market in the world. On the 2024 US presidential election it processed over $3.5 billion in a single market, more than all other prediction markets combined. The deepest orderbooks are in geopolitics, US and international elections, and major economic events. For large trades on high-profile markets, Polymarket offers better execution prices than Kalshi.

0–7% of net profit

Kalshi does not charge a per-trade commission on losing trades — fees only apply to net profits. The exact rate varies by market category (typically 2–7%). This structure is favorable for traders who lose frequently: you only pay when you win. But a 7% profit cut on a winning political trade is significant. There are no deposit or withdrawal fees.

~2% taker fee

Polymarket charges approximately 2% on taker orders (orders that cross the spread). Maker orders (resting limit orders that add liquidity) pay no fee. For active traders placing frequent market orders, the 2% taker fee compounds quickly. On the other hand, a flat 2% is cheaper than Kalshi's 5–7% cut on a large winning trade. Additionally, USDC deposits may incur Polygon gas fees and stablecoin bridge costs.

Politics · Economics · Sports · Weather · Culture · Crypto

Kalshi is the only CFTC-regulated venue offering sports event contracts. It also covers weather (hurricane season, temperature thresholds), economics (CPI, Fed decisions, jobs data), financial markets, politics, and pop culture. Sports contracts are unavailable in some states (e.g. New Jersey). No other regulated US venue matches Kalshi's category breadth.

Politics · Economics · Geopolitics · Crypto · Culture

Polymarket's strength is global political and geopolitical markets — elections in any country, international relations, AI milestones, and major economic events. It does not offer sports contracts. Weather is also absent. But for the questions it covers, particularly high-profile international events, Polymarket has more markets, more obscure questions, and deeper liquidity than any competitor.

Full US access today

Kalshi is available to all US residents. Sign up, complete KYC, deposit USD, and start trading within minutes. No crypto wallet, no waitlist, no state-level prohibition on Kalshi itself (though specific contract categories may be restricted in certain states).

Waitlist for licensed US app

The main Polymarket platform blocks US IP addresses and requires a VPN to access — which violates its terms of service. The new licensed US product (via QCEX) is rolling out through a waitlist in 2026. If you're a US user who wants Polymarket today, the options are: join the official waitlist, or wait. Using the main platform from the US is against the platform's terms and carries regulatory risk.