Czech Republic Blocks Kalshi From October 15 — Polymarket Already Blocked Since July
The Czech Ministry of Finance added Kalshi to its list of unauthorized gambling operators on September 30, requiring ISPs to block the platform by October 15, 2026. Polymarket was similarly blocked by Czech authorities in July 2026. The Czech Institute for Gambling Regulation (IPRH), representing over 90% of the Czech licensed gambling sector, brought the Kalshi case forward. Czech authorities describe prediction markets as betting products that market themselves as investment tools. Kalshi and Polymarket are now blocked or under active enforcement in at least six European jurisdictions: Czech Republic, Belgium, France, Romania, Spain, and Germany.
The Czech Ministry of Finance published a prohibition order against Kalshi on September 30, 2026, adding the prediction market platform to its official list of unauthorized gambling operators. Czech internet service providers have 15 days from the date of publication to block access to Kalshi, meaning the platform will be inaccessible to Czech users through conventional means from October 15. The complaint was brought forward by the Czech Institute for Gambling Regulation (IPRH), an industry body representing more than 90% of the Czech licensed gambling sector. Czech authorities reached the same conclusion that several other European regulators have: that prediction market platforms offering event contracts on sports and other outcomes are gambling products, regardless of how the platforms characterize them under US commodity law. Polymarket was blocked by Czech authorities under the same framework in July 2026, making October 15 the date when both of the major US-regulated prediction market platforms are blocked in the Czech Republic.
The Czech action is part of a broader European regulatory pattern. Belgium, France, Romania, Spain, Germany, and now the Czech Republic all treat US prediction market platforms as unlicensed gambling operators subject to national gambling law enforcement. The Spanish Ministry of Consumer Affairs launched legal action against both Polymarket and Kalshi in May 2026. The French Autorité Nationale des Jeux and Belgium's Gaming Commission have listed both platforms as unauthorized operators. Germany's GlüStV (Interstate Treaty on Gambling) framework classifies event contracts on sports outcomes as gambling requiring a license. In each jurisdiction, the position is the same as what US state AGs have argued domestically: the platforms offer products that meet the local definition of gambling, CFTC-regulated or not, and must comply with local licensing requirements or exit the market. The CFTC's designation of Kalshi and Polymarket as designated contract markets is a US regulatory status that has no binding effect on European regulators.
The European enforcement pattern differs from the US state enforcement pattern in one important structural respect: in the US, platforms can invoke the supremacy of federal law (specifically the CEA's preemption of state law) as a defense against state enforcement — and three federal circuits have now considered that argument, with one accepting it and two rejecting it. In Europe, there is no equivalent federal-law preemption available to US-regulated platforms. EU member states have sovereign authority over their own gambling regulatory frameworks under the principle of subsidiarity; the EU has not harmonized gambling law across member states, and CFTC regulation of US commodity contracts gives platforms no rights or protections under EU or member-state law. European enforcement against Kalshi and Polymarket is therefore structurally more straightforward than US state enforcement — there is no preemption argument to litigate, and the question is simply whether the platform's products meet the local gambling definition, which regulators in multiple countries have answered yes.
The practical impact on Kalshi and Polymarket's global operations is limited in aggregate but significant in trend. Both platforms generate the large majority of their volume from US users; European retail volume is relatively small. The Czech Republic — a country of roughly 10 million people with an advanced online gambling market — is not a revenue-critical jurisdiction for either platform. What matters is the pattern: European regulators are moving through the list of major prediction market platforms using their standard unauthorized operator enforcement mechanisms, and the rate of new country-level actions is accelerating. Combined with the US state enforcement actions in ten-plus jurisdictions, the prediction market platforms are simultaneously managing legal challenges on two continents under two different legal frameworks — neither of which currently accepts CFTC registration as sufficient authorization to offer sports event contracts to local users.
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Recent updates
SCOTUS Publishes First Orders List — No Prediction Market Cases Granted Yet
The Supreme Court published its first orders list of the October 2026-2027 term on October 2, granting certiorari in three cases — none of them prediction market cases. The absence was expected: response briefs from Kalshi to the New Jersey petition (filed September 2) and the Robinhood petition (filed September 9) are still pending. The Court typically considers cert petitions a few weeks after all responses are received. Legal observers expect the prediction market cert decision to come in late October or November 2026.
Kalshi Finalizing $1 Billion Raise at $40 Billion Valuation Ahead of IPO
Bloomberg reported on September 30 that Kalshi is finalizing a new funding round worth approximately $1 billion at a valuation of around $40 billion, expected to be the company's last private fundraise before an initial public offering. The round is being led by Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management, with Tiger Global and Dragoneer Investment Group also participating. The $40 billion valuation represents a nearly four-fold increase from Kalshi's $11 billion valuation in December 2025, a doubling from its $22 billion valuation in March 2026, and would make Kalshi one of the most valuable private fintech companies in the United States.
Sixth Circuit Joins Ninth Against Kalshi — Ohio and Tennessee Can Regulate Sports Contracts
The Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled unanimously on September 25 that Ohio and Tennessee may apply their state gambling laws to Kalshi's sports event contracts, rejecting Kalshi's CFTC-preemption argument. The panel held that Kalshi's sports contracts are not 'swaps' under the Commodity Exchange Act, and added an alternative holding that even if they were swaps, the CEA does not preempt state gambling law. The ruling deepens the circuit split to 2-1 against Kalshi: the Third Circuit ruled for Kalshi in April; the Ninth Circuit ruled against in August; now the Sixth Circuit has ruled against. The ruling is expected to significantly increase the probability that the Supreme Court grants certiorari in the pending petitions from New Jersey and Robinhood.