SCOTUS Publishes First Orders List — No Prediction Market Cases Granted Yet
The Supreme Court published its first orders list of the October 2026-2027 term on October 2, granting certiorari in three cases — none of them prediction market cases. The absence was expected: response briefs from Kalshi to the New Jersey petition (filed September 2) and the Robinhood petition (filed September 9) are still pending. The Court typically considers cert petitions a few weeks after all responses are received. Legal observers expect the prediction market cert decision to come in late October or November 2026.
The Supreme Court of the United States published its first orders list of the new October 2026-2027 term on October 2, granting certiorari in three cases. No prediction market case was among them. The absence was not unexpected: the Court generally does not act on cert petitions before all responses have been filed, and Kalshi's response briefs to both the New Jersey petition (Third Circuit, filed September 2) and the Robinhood petition (Ninth Circuit, filed September 9) are still being prepared. Under standard Supreme Court procedures, Kalshi has 30 days from when each petition was docketed to file a response — deadlines that may fall in early to mid-October. Once responses are in, the Court adds the petitions to a conference, typically a few weeks after the filing deadline. Under this timeline, the prediction market cert decision is most likely to come at a late October or November conference.
The procedural status as of October 2: three petitions are pending — New Jersey (Third Circuit, for Kalshi on preemption), Robinhood (Ninth Circuit, against Kalshi on preemption), and a potential third from Crypto.com (which also filed a cert petition from the same Ninth Circuit ruling as Robinhood). Kalshi's own en banc petition at the Ninth Circuit is also pending; if the Ninth Circuit grants en banc review, Robinhood's and Crypto.com's cert petitions would lose their underlying judgment and would need to be withdrawn or refiled after the en banc process. The September 28 long conference — the Court's first opportunity to act on the petitions — passed without a cert grant, but that conference was almost certainly limited to cases where all papers were already in. The prediction market petitions were almost certainly not ready for conference on September 28.
The circuit split that makes cert likely is now wider than at any previous point. At the long conference, only the Third-Ninth split existed; by the time the Court conferences the prediction market petitions in late October or November, the Sixth Circuit's September 25 ruling against Kalshi will also be in the record. Three circuits have now examined the CEA preemption question and produced two distinct answers. Legal commentators had placed cert grant probability at 60-70% based on the two-circuit split; the Sixth Circuit's ruling is likely to raise that estimate. Polymarket's prediction market contract tracking SCOTUS cert grant by year end has been active; the probability on that market was approximately 46% before the Sixth Circuit ruling and has not been widely updated in published sources since.
The practical implications of waiting for a cert decision extend beyond the legal calendar. Kalshi's $40 billion fundraising round — announced September 30 — is closing against the background of this cert timeline. The margin trading application filed with the CFTC on September 22 has a 45-day review window that runs to approximately November 5. Missouri's 30-day C&D compliance window expires October 18. The FOMC meets October 28-29. The midterm elections are November 3. And the cert decision will come somewhere in the October-November window. The prediction market sector is in its most compressed regulatory and commercial calendar of 2026: legal, financial, political, and product developments are converging in a six-week period that will define the sector's trajectory into 2027.
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Recent updates
Czech Republic Blocks Kalshi From October 15 — Polymarket Already Blocked Since July
The Czech Ministry of Finance added Kalshi to its list of unauthorized gambling operators on September 30, requiring ISPs to block the platform by October 15, 2026. Polymarket was similarly blocked by Czech authorities in July 2026. The Czech Institute for Gambling Regulation (IPRH), representing over 90% of the Czech licensed gambling sector, brought the Kalshi case forward. Czech authorities describe prediction markets as betting products that market themselves as investment tools. Kalshi and Polymarket are now blocked or under active enforcement in at least six European jurisdictions: Czech Republic, Belgium, France, Romania, Spain, and Germany.
Kalshi Finalizing $1 Billion Raise at $40 Billion Valuation Ahead of IPO
Bloomberg reported on September 30 that Kalshi is finalizing a new funding round worth approximately $1 billion at a valuation of around $40 billion, expected to be the company's last private fundraise before an initial public offering. The round is being led by Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management, with Tiger Global and Dragoneer Investment Group also participating. The $40 billion valuation represents a nearly four-fold increase from Kalshi's $11 billion valuation in December 2025, a doubling from its $22 billion valuation in March 2026, and would make Kalshi one of the most valuable private fintech companies in the United States.
Sixth Circuit Joins Ninth Against Kalshi — Ohio and Tennessee Can Regulate Sports Contracts
The Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled unanimously on September 25 that Ohio and Tennessee may apply their state gambling laws to Kalshi's sports event contracts, rejecting Kalshi's CFTC-preemption argument. The panel held that Kalshi's sports contracts are not 'swaps' under the Commodity Exchange Act, and added an alternative holding that even if they were swaps, the CEA does not preempt state gambling law. The ruling deepens the circuit split to 2-1 against Kalshi: the Third Circuit ruled for Kalshi in April; the Ninth Circuit ruled against in August; now the Sixth Circuit has ruled against. The ruling is expected to significantly increase the probability that the Supreme Court grants certiorari in the pending petitions from New Jersey and Robinhood.