Kalshi Is Seeking a $40 Billion Valuation — Seven Weeks After Raising at $22 Billion
Kalshi is in talks for a new funding round at a $40 billion valuation, nearly doubling the $22 billion figure from its May 2026 Series F, according to the Financial Times. The company's annualized revenue has crossed $2 billion, and CEO Tarek Mansour confirmed the company is in early IPO discussions — though a listing will not happen before 2027. Combined Kalshi and Polymarket volume hit $44.8 billion in June, a 75% jump from May.
Kalshi is seeking a new round of outside investment at a valuation of approximately $40 billion, according to the Financial Times, just seven weeks after closing a $1 billion Series F at a $22 billion valuation. The funding round talks come alongside a public disclosure of the company's revenue trajectory: annualized revenue has crossed $2 billion, versus approximately $1 billion for Polymarket. The valuation climb tells the story of the year in compressed form: Kalshi was worth around $2 billion in June 2025, $11 billion by December, $22 billion in May 2026, and is now targeting $40 billion. The investors from the Series F — Coatue, Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, and Morgan Stanley — have seen their stake roughly double in value in under two months.
CEO Tarek Mansour confirmed to CNBC that the company is in early conversations about an eventual IPO but said emphatically that a public offering will not happen in 2026. Reports suggest late 2027 or 2028 as the realistic window, pending market conditions. The IPO discussion is itself a milestone: Kalshi's entire existence until this year was a regulatory fight to establish that its products were legal. That fight is not over — nine states are in active litigation — but the company is now simultaneously defending its right to operate in court and planning what a public offering might look like. Those two things coexist because the CFTC's legal posture strongly suggests the federal-preemption arguments will ultimately hold.
The combined Kalshi and Polymarket monthly trading volume for June was $44.8 billion, a 75% surge from May's $25.66 billion — driven overwhelmingly by World Cup trading. Kalshi claims more than 90% of US prediction market activity by volume. Institutional trading volume grew 800% in the six months ended June 2026. These are not the numbers of a niche product: they are approaching the scale of mid-tier US futures exchanges, which is precisely the comparison Kalshi wants analysts and potential IPO investors to make. The CFTC's proposed rule — open for public comment until July 27 — would formalize the regulatory regime that underpins all of it, converting the agency's litigation posture into codified regulation.
The $40 billion target is also a statement about competitive positioning. Polymarket reached $1 billion in annualized revenue six weeks after its US launch, which is extraordinary growth — but it is half of Kalshi's current figure. Bernstein analysts noted in a June 29 report that Kalshi owns the exchange stack and has built federally regulated infrastructure, but that it 'trails on distribution,' leaving it plausibly a target as well as an acquirer. The report named Robinhood, Coinbase, and DraftKings as potential acquirers. Mansour's IPO positioning is a direct response to that framing: a $40 billion public valuation makes a friendly acquisition harder to execute and establishes Kalshi as a standalone financial exchange rather than an asset to be absorbed into a larger consumer platform.
Operators mentioned in this article
Recent updates
Massachusetts Supreme Court Ruling on Kalshi Now Imminent — First State High Court Decision on Prediction Markets
The Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court heard oral arguments on May 5 in the Kalshi prediction markets case and is expected to issue a decision within weeks. The SJC appeared skeptical of Kalshi's argument that CFTC regulation preempts state gambling law, and the court's ruling will be the first state supreme court decision on prediction markets anywhere in the country. Massachusetts AG Andrea Campbell secured a preliminary injunction blocking Kalshi's sports contracts in January 2026. The CFTC filed an amicus brief supporting Kalshi; a coalition of 38 state attorneys general filed an opposing brief supporting Massachusetts.
27 States Back California Tribes Suing Kalshi Over Sports Contracts Under Indian Gaming Law
Three California tribes — Blue Lake Rancheria, Chicken Ranch Rancheria of Me-Wuk Indians, and Picayune Rancheria of the Chukchansi Indians — are separately challenging Kalshi's sports event contracts in the Ninth Circuit under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act, a federal law distinct from the Commodity Exchange Act preemption arguments at issue in Nevada, New Jersey, and Connecticut. The Ninth Circuit refused to consolidate the tribal case with the Nevada case. A Ninth Circuit panel appeared skeptical of Kalshi in July hearings, and 27 states plus the District of Columbia have filed amicus briefs supporting the tribes. The IGRA theory, if it succeeds, could block Kalshi from operating sports contracts in any state where tribal gaming compacts exist — a category that includes most US states.
SCOTUS Review of Prediction Markets Hits 64% on Polymarket — New Jersey Files Cert Petition September 3
The probability of Supreme Court review of prediction market sports contracts jumped from around 30% to 64% on Polymarket's own platform within hours of the Ninth Circuit's August 28 ruling — with $976,000 in trading volume flowing into the contract. New Jersey, the losing party in the Third Circuit's April ruling that went for Kalshi, is filing a certiorari petition on September 3. The Ninth Circuit's 3-0 ruling against Kalshi directly contradicts the Third Circuit's 2-1 ruling for Kalshi, creating the clearest possible circuit split trigger for SCOTUS to grant review.