NBA Names Kalshi and Polymarket Preferred Exchanges — Leaving the NFL Alone in Opposition
The NBA announced on October 26 that it has named Kalshi and Polymarket its 'preferred prediction market exchanges,' signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with the CFTC on basketball integrity, and expanded its DraftKings deal to include prediction markets — the first league to extend a sportsbook partnership into the category. The exchange deals bar league and team personnel from trading NBA contracts, limit permissible markets, and require sharing of suspicious-trading data, in exchange for NBA intellectual property and official data. The NBA joins MLB, the NHL, and MLS as partnered leagues, leaving the NFL as the lone major holdout — and the only league fighting the platforms in court.
The National Basketball Association announced on October 26, 2026 that it has designated Kalshi and Polymarket as its preferred prediction market exchanges, establishing commercial partnerships with both platforms alongside an integrity framework. The league also signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with the CFTC focused on cooperation and information sharing related to NBA prediction markets, and it expanded its existing agreement with DraftKings to include prediction markets and nationwide promotion — making the NBA the first league to extend a sportsbook partnership into the prediction market category. Under the exchange deals, Kalshi and Polymarket receive NBA intellectual property rights and official league data; in exchange, they agree to limit the permissible markets they offer on NBA events, bar league and team personnel from trading NBA event contracts, and share information on suspicious trading activity with the league.
The NBA's move completes a shift that has been building through 2026 and leaves the NFL increasingly isolated. Earlier in the year, Major League Baseball named Polymarket its exclusive prediction market partner, the NHL signed licensing deals with both Kalshi and Polymarket, and MLS struck an exclusive Polymarket arrangement. The NBA was reported to be closing in on agreements through the fall, and its October 26 announcement makes it the latest major league to embrace the category commercially. That leaves the NFL — the single largest driver of prediction market sports volume — as the only major American professional league that has not partnered with the platforms. More than that, the NFL is the only league actively opposing the platforms in court: it filed a Supreme Court amicus brief on October 8 arguing that prediction market sports contracts are gambling, not swaps, and should be regulated by the states.
The structural significance of the NBA deal is that it directly undercuts the argument the NFL and state regulators are making in the litigation. The leagues that partner with the platforms implicitly treat prediction market contracts as legitimate products around which integrity frameworks can be built, rather than as illegal gambling to be stopped. The NBA's MOU with the CFTC is particularly notable: a major sports league entering a cooperation agreement with the federal commodities regulator, rather than with state gambling regulators, tacitly endorses the CFTC's claim to jurisdiction over these contracts. When the NFL tells the Supreme Court that these are gambling products subject to state gambling law, the NBA's decision to work with the CFTC on basketball integrity is a competing signal from an equally authoritative source. The sports industry is now visibly split not just commercially but on the underlying legal question of who should regulate these markets.
There is an irony in the NBA's position worth noting: the league is headquartered in New York, one of the states most aggressively suing the platforms for operating illegal gambling. The NBA's embrace of Kalshi and Polymarket at the league level, while its home state attorney general litigates against those same platforms, captures the incoherence of the current moment. Different institutions — leagues, states, federal agencies, courts — are reaching opposite conclusions about the same products at the same time, and the commercial logic that drives leagues to partner is running directly against the regulatory logic that drives states to enforce. For the platforms, the accumulation of league partnerships is a valuable counterweight to the enforcement campaign: each major league that signs a deal makes it harder to characterize the contracts as straightforwardly illegal, and provides the platforms with integrity frameworks and official data that strengthen their legitimacy claims. The NFL's continued opposition remains the most significant holdout, given football's dominance of sports volume, but the NBA deal means the platforms can now point to four of the five major American leagues as partners. The question is whether the NFL's resistance reflects a genuinely different assessment of the risks, or simply a stronger negotiating position that it intends to exploit before eventually signing its own deal.
Operators mentioned in this article
Recent updates
Utah Files Felony Charges Against Kalshi and Its Founders — Second State to Criminally Charge a Platform
Utah filed criminal charges against Kalshi and its two co-founders, Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, on October 28 — 13 felonies and a misdemeanor, including a second-degree 'pattern of unlawful criminal activity' count and 12 counts of online gambling promotion. The charges stem from a September sting in which an undercover agent placed 12 sports wagers verified to be in Utah. The CFTC sued Utah the day before to block state enforcement, its tenth such suit. Utah is the second state after Arizona to criminally charge Kalshi, and the first to charge the founders personally. Kalshi called it a 'crazy overreach.'
CFTC Chair Says Agency Is Watching Prediction Markets for Manipulation Ahead of Midterms
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said on October 23 that the agency is closely monitoring prediction markets for manipulation ahead of the November 3 midterms, and that it is separately scrutinizing oil market trading tied to President Trump's announcements about the war in Iran. Combined midterm open interest on Kalshi and Polymarket stood at $250 million as of October 18, with Kalshi holding 84%. Selig acknowledged the agency often catches political figures attempting to trade 'oftentimes after the fact.' The remarks highlight the CFTC's dual and somewhat conflicting role as both the platforms' federal protector and their manipulation watchdog, at a time when the agency has shed enforcement staff.
Pentagon Bars Personnel From Trading on Military Information After $400K Prediction Market Scandal
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued an October 20 memo barring Department of Defense personnel from making financial transactions using non-public information, explicitly naming Polymarket and Kalshi. The directive follows the prosecution of a Special Forces soldier accused of making more than $400,000 on Polymarket by betting on a mission to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Hegseth's rationale is a national-security concern: a bet on a military outcome creates a market signal that adversaries can read. 'Our enemies watch movements in these markets,' the memo states.