The 2026 World Cup Is the First Mega-Event for US Prediction Markets — Kalshi and Polymarket Hit Record $7B Weekly Volume Going In
The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off June 11 in Mexico City with global wagers projected to top $50 billion — the biggest betting event in history. It is also the first World Cup where US traders can use prediction markets at full scale: Kalshi and Polymarket entered the week at a record $7 billion in combined weekly volume, Kalshi lists nearly 500 tournament markets, and a SEON survey puts prediction markets second only to licensed sportsbooks as the preferred way to bet the tournament.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off Thursday, June 11 in Mexico City and runs six weeks to the July 19 final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey — 48 teams, 104 matches, and the largest betting event ever staged. Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon projects global wagers could top $50 billion, up from more than $35 billion at Qatar 2022, driven by 40 additional matches, North American time zones, and dramatically broader legal access in the US: about 65% of the US population now has legal sports betting, versus roughly 40% during the last tournament, per the American Gaming Association. Deutsche Bank pegs US handle alone at about $3.3 billion, with FanDuel taking roughly $1.3 billion, DraftKings $1.1 billion, BetMGM $250 million, Caesars $120 million, and Penn's theScore Bet $83 million.
For prediction markets this is the first mega-event at full scale, and the platforms enter it at record levels. Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley reported Kalshi and Polymarket combined grew 13% week-over-week to $7 billion in weekly trading volume — an all-time high — in the run-up to the opener. Kalshi lists nearly 500 unique tournament markets, with the most volume on the July 19 final, where Spain and France lead the implied probabilities. The infrastructure is being built for the moment too: Kalshi just signed a data deal with Sportradar covering professional soccer, baseball, hockey, and UFC, putting institutional-grade settlement data behind its sports markets. And the consumer shift is measurable: a SEON survey found 29% of respondents prefer licensed betting apps for World Cup wagers, but 19% now choose prediction markets — ahead of social casinos, crypto platforms, and offshore books. For a product category that barely existed at retail scale during Qatar 2022, second place is the story.
The competitive geometry is unusual. Fanatics, FanDuel, and DraftKings have all launched prediction products but limit sports event contracts to states where they lack gaming licenses — using CFTC-regulated markets as a wedge into territory their sportsbooks cannot reach. DraftKings' May numbers, released Tuesday, sent its stock up 11%: $3.1 billion in annualized total volume (+34% MoM) and $1.3 billion annualized consumer volume — still small against its roughly $54 billion in 2025 sportsbook handle, but growing at a pace no sportsbook product line matches. Macquarie expects the tournament to add roughly 2-5% to 2027 operator EBITDA, with Flutter best positioned globally; CEO Peter Jackson's framing on CNBC captures the scale gap: about 200 million people watch a Super Bowl, while 1.5 billion watched the Qatar final and five billion watched some of that tournament. Sports-data firms Genius Sports and Sportradar sell the picks and shovels to both sides.
Two caveats belong in any honest preview. First, the legal backdrop: six states are in active federal litigation over whether prediction markets are even lawful under state gambling codes, and while the tournament conveniently ends on July 19 — before Minnesota's August 1 felony ban takes effect — a mid-tournament preliminary-injunction ruling in any of the pending cases could change platform availability in individual states with little notice. Our litigation scoreboard tracks every case. Second, the responsible-gambling concern is louder than usual and deserves to be. Gamban co-founder Matt Zarb-Cousin told CNBC that daily matches for over a month make habitual gambling materially more likely: "For the gambling industry, the World Cup will be like March Madness on steroids." The SEON survey adds an uncomfortable data point — nearly a quarter of respondents admitted to multi-accounting for promotions, and millennials over-index on every risk dimension simultaneously: betting intent, prediction-market use, crypto platforms, and multiple accounts. A six-week event with 104 matches is exactly the environment where position-sizing discipline and deposit limits earn their keep.
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Recent updates
Utah Files Felony Charges Against Kalshi and Its Founders — Second State to Criminally Charge a Platform
Utah filed criminal charges against Kalshi and its two co-founders, Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, on October 28 — 13 felonies and a misdemeanor, including a second-degree 'pattern of unlawful criminal activity' count and 12 counts of online gambling promotion. The charges stem from a September sting in which an undercover agent placed 12 sports wagers verified to be in Utah. The CFTC sued Utah the day before to block state enforcement, its tenth such suit. Utah is the second state after Arizona to criminally charge Kalshi, and the first to charge the founders personally. Kalshi called it a 'crazy overreach.'
NBA Names Kalshi and Polymarket Preferred Exchanges — Leaving the NFL Alone in Opposition
The NBA announced on October 26 that it has named Kalshi and Polymarket its 'preferred prediction market exchanges,' signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with the CFTC on basketball integrity, and expanded its DraftKings deal to include prediction markets — the first league to extend a sportsbook partnership into the category. The exchange deals bar league and team personnel from trading NBA contracts, limit permissible markets, and require sharing of suspicious-trading data, in exchange for NBA intellectual property and official data. The NBA joins MLB, the NHL, and MLS as partnered leagues, leaving the NFL as the lone major holdout — and the only league fighting the platforms in court.
CFTC Chair Says Agency Is Watching Prediction Markets for Manipulation Ahead of Midterms
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said on October 23 that the agency is closely monitoring prediction markets for manipulation ahead of the November 3 midterms, and that it is separately scrutinizing oil market trading tied to President Trump's announcements about the war in Iran. Combined midterm open interest on Kalshi and Polymarket stood at $250 million as of October 18, with Kalshi holding 84%. Selig acknowledged the agency often catches political figures attempting to trade 'oftentimes after the fact.' The remarks highlight the CFTC's dual and somewhat conflicting role as both the platforms' federal protector and their manipulation watchdog, at a time when the agency has shed enforcement staff.