Prediction Markets
in Arizona
Arizona has active litigation against prediction market platforms following Polymarket's US relaunch via QCEX in December 2025. CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi operate under federal preemption, but Polymarket's QCEX platform is blocked for Arizona residents pending resolution of state legal proceedings. Federal preemption arguments are being contested in court.
Which platforms are available in Arizona?
| Platform | Status in AZ | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Available | CFTC-regulated DCM — broadest topic coverage, no deposit minimum |
| Polymarket | Restricted | Blocked: active state enforcement action or geo-restriction in place as of April 2026 |
| Manifold | Available | Play-money + optional sweepstakes cashout, 5% fee. Available everywhere except DE, ID, MI, WA. |
| PredictIt | Available | Politics-only markets, $850 max per contract. CFTC no-action relief. |
⚠ Platform availability can change. Always verify directly with the platform before depositing funds. Polymarket's QCEX waitlist is currently 6–12 weeks for most states.
Kalshi
CFTC-regulated DCM — broadest topic coverage, no deposit minimum
Manifold
Play-money + optional sweepstakes cashout, 5% fee. Available everywhere except DE, ID, MI, WA.
PredictIt
Politics-only markets, $850 max per contract. CFTC no-action relief.
Regulatory environment in Arizona
Arizona has active litigation against prediction market platforms following Polymarket's US relaunch via QCEX in December 2025. CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi operate under federal preemption, but Polymarket's QCEX platform is blocked for Arizona residents pending resolution of state legal proceedings. Federal preemption arguments are being contested in court.
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) operates under federal preemption — generally accessible in Arizona
- Polymarket QCEX is currently restricted due to active state-level enforcement action
- Monitor regulatory developments — enforcement posture in caution states can shift quickly
- Consult a local attorney before deploying significant capital on non-CFTC platforms
How Arizona taxes prediction market profits
Arizona taxes event contract profits as ordinary income at a flat state rate of 2.5%.
At the federal level, platforms like Kalshi issue annual 1099-MISC forms reporting net profits as ordinary income. You can deduct up to $3,000 in net losses per year against other income, carrying forward the remainder to future years. If you trade sports event contracts, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA, signed July 4 2025) caps sports betting loss deductibility at 90% starting in 2026.
General information only. Consult a qualified tax professional regarding your specific situation.
Calculate your edge
Expected Value Calculator
Convert any contract price to American odds, decimal odds, and implied probability — then check whether a trade has positive expected value before you place it.
● Kelly calculatorKelly Criterion — Optimal Bet Sizing
Enter your edge and bankroll to find the mathematically optimal stake size. Includes half-Kelly (the practical default) and quarter-Kelly recommendations.
Other states
California
California taxes event contract profits as ordinary income at state rates up to 13.3%, amo…
Caution · CTConnecticut
Connecticut taxes event contract profits as ordinary income at state rates up to 6.99%.…
Caution · HIHawaii
Hawaii taxes event contract profits as ordinary income at state rates up to 11%, among the…
Caution · ILIllinois
Illinois taxes event contract profits as ordinary income at a flat state rate of 4.95%.…