Academic / Research

PredictIt

Longest-running US political prediction market. $850 contract cap per market.

Politics

Go to PredictIt ↗

✓ Best for

✓ US traders focused exclusively on political markets
✓ Users who want an established, familiar platform with history since 2014
✓ Casual traders comfortable with the $850-per-contract cap

✗ Avoid if

✗ Cost-conscious traders: combined 10% + 5% fees are the highest in the industry
✗ Anyone wanting sports, economics, or non-political markets
✗ High-stakes traders limited by the $850 cap per contract

About this operator

PredictIt is a political prediction market operated by Victoria University of Wellington as an academic research project under a CFTC no-action letter. It is restricted to politics-related questions and imposes an $850 maximum stake per individual contract, a cap that limits its utility for large traders but makes it highly accessible to newcomers. The CFTC attempted to terminate the no-action letter in 2022 but PredictIt secured a court injunction and continues to operate while litigation proceeds. The fee structure is steep by modern standards: 10% of net winnings plus a 5% withdrawal fee.

Quick facts

Founded	2014
Headquarters	Wellington, New Zealand (Victoria University of Wellington)
Type	Academic / Research
Settlement	USD
Fees	10% of net profits; 5% on withdrawals
Min deposit	$10
KYC	Full KYC (US only)
Volume	$1B+ lifetime
✓ Data verified April 2026

⚖ Kalshi vs PredictIt →

Scorecard

PredictIt — Scorecard

Fees

Poor

Liquidity

Average

Ease of use

Good

Regulation

Good

Market range

Poor

Editorial ratings based on publicly available data. Your experience may vary.

Pros & cons

PredictIt — strengths and weaknesses

✓ Strengths

✓ Longest track record
✓ Political market depth
✓ Low barrier to entry

✗ Weaknesses

✗ 10% fee on net profit per contract: highest of any major US platform
✗ Additional 5% withdrawal fee on top of trading fees
✗ $850 maximum investment per contract
✗ Politics-only: no sports, economics, or general markets
✗ Regulatory uncertainty: operates under a CFTC no-action exemption, not a full licence

Real cost

What does it actually cost to trade on PredictIt?

Fee breakdown

The fee structure is expensive: 10% of net profit per contract, then 5% of the total withdrawal. Example: invest $100, position returns $150 ($50 profit) → $5 fee → $45 net gain. Then withdrawing your $145 costs another $7.25. Combined, you keep about $137.75 from a position that returned 50%.

Fees shown are approximate. Always verify the current fee schedule directly on PredictIt before trading. → Check current fees on PredictIt ↗

Getting started

How to start trading on PredictIt

1 Register at predictit.org and verify your identity (US residents only)
2 Deposit up to $850 via bank transfer, PayPal, or debit card
3 Browse political markets (elections, appointments, legislation) and buy YES or NO shares
4 Monitor your positions; markets resolve after the political event outcome is confirmed

Go to PredictIt ↗

FAQ

Frequently asked questions — PredictIt

Is PredictIt regulated? +

PredictIt operates under a CFTC no-action letter issued to Victoria University of Wellington, which runs PredictIt as an academic research project. This is not full regulatory approval. It is a conditional exemption allowing limited real-money trading for research purposes. The CFTC attempted to revoke the no-action letter in 2022 but a federal court blocked the revocation; as of 2026 PredictIt continues to operate under the original terms.

What is the $850 cap on PredictIt? +

PredictIt limits each user to a maximum of $850 invested in any single contract (not per market or per account overall). This cap is a condition of its CFTC no-action letter, which was designed for small-scale academic research rather than large-scale trading. The cap means PredictIt is impractical for high-volume traders but accessible to casual participants.

What fees does PredictIt charge? +

PredictIt charges a 10% fee on net profits and a 5% fee on withdrawals. These are among the highest fees of any major US prediction market. The net-profit fee means you pay 10% of what you win on any given contract, and then another 5% when you move money out.

Is PredictIt politics only? +

Yes. PredictIt focuses almost exclusively on US and international political markets: elections, legislative outcomes, political appointments, and government policy decisions. It does not offer sports, economic, or general event contracts. Its regulatory status as an academic research project is specifically tied to political and electoral research.

Who runs PredictIt? +

PredictIt is operated by Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand as an academic research project, in partnership with Aristotle Inc., which handles the US platform operations. Profits support academic research on prediction markets and political forecasting. This academic structure is what makes the CFTC no-action exemption possible.

Also consider

Related platforms