Prediction Markets
in Florida
Prediction markets in Florida fall under federal CFTC jurisdiction. No state-level enforcement actions have been publicly reported, and CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi operate there without documented state interference.
Which platforms are available in Florida?
| Platform | Status in FL | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Available | CFTC-regulated DCM — broadest topic coverage, no deposit minimum |
| Polymarket | Available | US platform via QCEX (CFTC-licensed, Dec 2025 launch — invite-only waitlist, full access est. Q3–Q4 2026) |
| Manifold | Available | Play-money + optional sweepstakes cashout, 5% fee. Available everywhere except DE, ID, MI, WA. |
| PredictIt | Available | Politics-only markets, $850 max per contract. CFTC no-action relief. |
⚠ Platform availability can change. Always verify directly with the platform before depositing funds. Polymarket's QCEX waitlist is currently 6–12 weeks for most states.
Kalshi
CFTC-regulated DCM — broadest topic coverage, no deposit minimum
Polymarket
US platform via QCEX (CFTC-licensed, Dec 2025 launch — invite-only waitlist, full access est. Q3–Q4 2026)
Manifold
Play-money + optional sweepstakes cashout, 5% fee. Available everywhere except DE, ID, MI, WA.
PredictIt
Politics-only markets, $850 max per contract. CFTC no-action relief.
Regulatory environment in Florida
Prediction markets in Florida fall under federal CFTC jurisdiction. No state-level enforcement actions have been publicly reported, and CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi operate there without documented state interference.
- Open a Kalshi account at kalshi.com — CFTC-regulated, no issues reported in Florida
- Join the Polymarket QCEX waitlist at polymarket.com — expect 6–12 weeks; full public access est. Q3–Q4 2026
- Manifold Markets is free and available immediately — good for learning without financial risk
- Report event contract profits on your federal return as ordinary income; Florida has no state income tax
How Florida taxes prediction market profits
Florida has no state income tax, so event contract profits are subject only to federal taxation.
At the federal level, platforms like Kalshi issue annual 1099-MISC forms reporting net profits as ordinary income. You can deduct up to $3,000 in net losses per year against other income, carrying forward the remainder to future years. If you trade sports event contracts, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA, signed July 4 2025) caps sports betting loss deductibility at 90% starting in 2026.
General information only. Consult a qualified tax professional regarding your specific situation.
Calculate your edge
Expected Value Calculator
Convert any contract price to American odds, decimal odds, and implied probability — then check whether a trade has positive expected value before you place it.
● Kelly calculatorKelly Criterion — Optimal Bet Sizing
Enter your edge and bankroll to find the mathematically optimal stake size. Includes half-Kelly (the practical default) and quarter-Kelly recommendations.
Other states
Alabama
Alabama taxes event contract profits as ordinary income at state rates up to 5%.…
Open · AKAlaska
No state income tax.
Open · ARArkansas
Arkansas taxes event contract profits as ordinary income at state rates up to 4.7%.…
Open · COColorado
Colorado taxes event contract profits as ordinary income at a flat state rate of 4.4%.…