Prediction Markets
in Washington
Washington is one of four states where Manifold Markets has restricted real-money trading per its terms of service. CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi continue to operate under federal preemption, but residents should verify platform availability before depositing.
Which platforms are available in Washington?
| Platform | Status in WA | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Available | CFTC-regulated DCM — broadest topic coverage, no deposit minimum |
| Polymarket | Available | US platform via QCEX (CFTC-licensed, Dec 2025 launch — invite-only waitlist, full access est. Q3–Q4 2026) |
| Manifold | Unavailable | Play-money + optional sweepstakes cashout, 5% fee. Available everywhere except DE, ID, MI, WA. |
| PredictIt | Available | Politics-only markets, $850 max per contract. CFTC no-action relief. |
⚠ Platform availability can change. Always verify directly with the platform before depositing funds. Polymarket's QCEX waitlist is currently 6–12 weeks for most states.
Kalshi
CFTC-regulated DCM — broadest topic coverage, no deposit minimum
Polymarket
US platform via QCEX (CFTC-licensed, Dec 2025 launch — invite-only waitlist, full access est. Q3–Q4 2026)
PredictIt
Politics-only markets, $850 max per contract. CFTC no-action relief.
Regulatory environment in Washington
Washington is one of four states where Manifold Markets has restricted real-money trading per its terms of service. CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi continue to operate under federal preemption, but residents should verify platform availability before depositing.
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) continues to operate in Washington under federal preemption
- Manifold Markets restricts real-money features in Washington per its terms of service
- PredictIt (CFTC no-action) is available — politics-only markets, $850 per contract cap
- Verify current platform access directly before depositing — restrictions can change
How Washington taxes prediction market profits
Washington has no state personal income tax, so event contract profits are subject only to federal taxation; consult a tax advisor regarding Washington's unique tax structure.
At the federal level, platforms like Kalshi issue annual 1099-MISC forms reporting net profits as ordinary income. You can deduct up to $3,000 in net losses per year against other income, carrying forward the remainder to future years. If you trade sports event contracts, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA, signed July 4 2025) caps sports betting loss deductibility at 90% starting in 2026.
General information only. Consult a qualified tax professional regarding your specific situation.
Calculate your edge
Expected Value Calculator
Convert any contract price to American odds, decimal odds, and implied probability — then check whether a trade has positive expected value before you place it.
● Kelly calculatorKelly Criterion — Optimal Bet Sizing
Enter your edge and bankroll to find the mathematically optimal stake size. Includes half-Kelly (the practical default) and quarter-Kelly recommendations.
Other states
Delaware
Delaware taxes event contract profits as ordinary income at state rates up to 6.6%.…
Restricted · IDIdaho
Idaho taxes event contract profits as ordinary income at state rates up to 5.8%.…
Restricted · MIMichigan
Michigan taxes event contract profits as ordinary income at a flat state rate of 4.25%.…
Restricted · NJNew Jersey
New Jersey taxes event contract profits as ordinary income at state rates up to 10.75%.…