Congress Is Holding a Hearing on Whether Prediction Markets Are Sports Bets — With No Prediction Market Companies in the Room
The House Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing on Tuesday 22 July on the status of sports event contracts, featuring the American Gaming Association, tribal gaming interests, and former CFTC attorneys — but no representatives from Kalshi, Polymarket, or any other prediction market platform. The AGA will argue that sports event contracts are sports bets. The hearing comes as Kalshi's World Cup winner market hit a record $1.9 billion in total volume.
The House Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing on 22 July examining whether sports event contracts should be regulated as sports bets or remain under CFTC authority as federally-designated financial instruments. Testifying are Chris Cylke of the American Gaming Association, David Bean of the Indian Gaming Association, Solidus Labs CEO Asaf Meir, and two former CFTC attorneys. No representative from Kalshi, Polymarket, or any other prediction market platform will be in the room.
Cylke's written testimony argues that sports event contracts are sports bets and should be regulated as such — the same position the AGA put to a Senate hearing in May. The two principal objections are consumer protection (prediction markets are not required to offer self-exclusion and other responsible gambling measures that sportsbooks must provide) and fiscal: prediction market platforms do not generate state tax revenue that licensed sportsbooks do. David Bean of the Indian Gaming Association will separately raise the tribal sovereignty concern — that federally supervised event contracts may encroach on exclusive sports-betting rights awarded to Native American groups in states such as Florida.
For UK readers, the tribal sovereignty angle has no direct parallel, but the responsible gambling argument does. The UK Gambling Commission requires licensed operators to implement GAMSTOP self-exclusion, enhanced affordability checks, and mandatory interaction tools. Prediction markets accessible to UK customers would need to meet those obligations — which neither Kalshi nor Polymarket currently does. The AGA's argument that federal licensing is insufficient for consumer protection mirrors what a UK regulatory assessment would look like, and suggests that even if a CFTC framework emerged, a separate set of player-protection obligations would still be required before UK access could be permitted.
Solidus Labs CEO Asaf Meir disputed the integrity argument ahead of his testimony, noting that Solidus surfaced 120,000 alerts to one prediction market client in Q2 2026 alone, with 400 becoming active investigations and two dozen referred to the CFTC. Former CFTC general counsel Robert Schwartz and former special counsel Carl Kennedy will defend both the agency's legal authority and its regulatory capacity. The hearing arrives as Kalshi's World Cup winner contract reached $1.9 billion in total volume — more than double this year's Super Bowl. The legal question (swaps or sports bets) is heading toward the Supreme Court; the political question (who defines the product) is now being contested simultaneously in Congress.
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