Congress Is Holding a Hearing on Whether Prediction Markets Are Sports Bets — With No Prediction Market Companies in the Room
The House Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing on Tuesday 22 July on the status of sports event contracts, featuring the American Gaming Association, tribal gaming interests, and former CFTC attorneys — but no representatives from Kalshi, Polymarket, or any other prediction market platform. The AGA will argue that sports event contracts are sports bets. The hearing comes as Kalshi's World Cup winner market hit a record $1.9 billion in total volume.
The House Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing on 22 July examining whether sports event contracts should be regulated as sports bets or remain under CFTC authority as federally-designated financial instruments. Testifying are Chris Cylke of the American Gaming Association, David Bean of the Indian Gaming Association, Solidus Labs CEO Asaf Meir, and two former CFTC attorneys. No representative from Kalshi, Polymarket, or any other prediction market platform will be in the room.
Cylke's written testimony argues that sports event contracts are sports bets and should be regulated as such — the same position the AGA put to a Senate hearing in May. The two principal objections are consumer protection (prediction markets are not required to offer self-exclusion and other responsible gambling measures that sportsbooks must provide) and fiscal: prediction market platforms do not generate state tax revenue that licensed sportsbooks do. David Bean of the Indian Gaming Association will separately raise the tribal sovereignty concern — that federally supervised event contracts may encroach on exclusive sports-betting rights awarded to Native American groups in states such as Florida.
For UK readers, the tribal sovereignty angle has no direct parallel, but the responsible gambling argument does. The UK Gambling Commission requires licensed operators to implement GAMSTOP self-exclusion, enhanced affordability checks, and mandatory interaction tools. Prediction markets accessible to UK customers would need to meet those obligations — which neither Kalshi nor Polymarket currently does. The AGA's argument that federal licensing is insufficient for consumer protection mirrors what a UK regulatory assessment would look like, and suggests that even if a CFTC framework emerged, a separate set of player-protection obligations would still be required before UK access could be permitted.
Solidus Labs CEO Asaf Meir disputed the integrity argument ahead of his testimony, noting that Solidus surfaced 120,000 alerts to one prediction market client in Q2 2026 alone, with 400 becoming active investigations and two dozen referred to the CFTC. Former CFTC general counsel Robert Schwartz and former special counsel Carl Kennedy will defend both the agency's legal authority and its regulatory capacity. The hearing arrives as Kalshi's World Cup winner contract reached $1.9 billion in total volume — more than double this year's Super Bowl. The legal question (swaps or sports bets) is heading toward the Supreme Court; the political question (who defines the product) is now being contested simultaneously in Congress.
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Utah Files Felony Charges Against Kalshi and Its Founders — Second State to Criminally Charge a Platform
Utah filed criminal charges against Kalshi and its two co-founders, Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, on October 28 — 13 felonies and a misdemeanour, including a second-degree 'pattern of unlawful criminal activity' count and 12 counts of online gambling promotion. The charges stem from a September sting in which an undercover agent placed 12 sports wagers verified to be in Utah. The CFTC sued Utah the day before to block state enforcement, its tenth such suit. Utah is the second state after Arizona to criminally charge Kalshi, and the first to charge the founders personally. Kalshi called it a 'crazy overreach.'
NBA Names Kalshi and Polymarket Preferred Exchanges — Leaving the NFL Alone in Opposition
The NBA announced on October 26 that it has named Kalshi and Polymarket its 'preferred prediction market exchanges,' signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with the CFTC on basketball integrity, and expanded its DraftKings deal to include prediction markets — the first league to extend a sportsbook partnership into the category. The exchange deals bar league and team personnel from trading NBA contracts, limit permissible markets, and require sharing suspicious-trading data, in exchange for NBA intellectual property and official data. The NBA joins MLB, the NHL, and MLS as partnered leagues, leaving the NFL as the lone major holdout — and the only league fighting the platforms in court.
CFTC Chair Says Agency Is Watching Prediction Markets for Manipulation Ahead of Midterms
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said on October 23 that the agency is closely monitoring prediction markets for manipulation ahead of the November 3 midterms, and that it is separately scrutinising oil market trading tied to President Trump's announcements about the war in Iran. Combined midterm open interest on Kalshi and Polymarket stood at $250 million as of October 18, with Kalshi holding 84%. Selig acknowledged the agency often catches political figures trading 'oftentimes after the fact.' The remarks highlight the CFTC's dual role as both the platforms' federal protector and their manipulation watchdog.