Michigan Judge Rules Sports Contracts Likely Aren't Swaps — the First Real Crack in the CFTC Preemption Wall
US District Judge Paul Maloney denied Polymarket and Robinhood a preliminary injunction on 19 June 2026, ruling that sports event contracts are likely not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that CFTC authority would 'sweep in activity that has traditionally belonged to state regulators.' It is the first significant court loss for the prediction-market side and turns the scattered district-court rulings into a Sixth Circuit split.
US District Judge Paul L. Maloney of the Western District of Michigan denied Polymarket and Robinhood a preliminary injunction on 19 June 2026, ruling that sports event contracts are likely not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and therefore likely fall outside the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction. The platforms had sought the injunction to block Michigan regulators — after Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel sued Kalshi alleging illegal online sports betting — on the same federal-preemption theory that won in Arizona on 5 May. Maloney rejected it, writing that the CFTC's broad authority claims "would sweep in activity that has traditionally belonged to state regulators rather than federal financial agencies."
This is the first significant court loss for the prediction-market side in the 2026 wave, and it matters far beyond Michigan. Until now the story had one direction: the CFTC and the platforms won the Arizona preliminary injunction and cited it as persuasive authority everywhere else. Maloney's ruling ends the clean-sweep narrative. The district courts are now openly split — and the split runs inside a single appeals court. Michigan, Ohio, and Tennessee all sit in the Sixth Circuit, and the three have gone three different ways: an Ohio judge sided with state regulators, a Tennessee judge backed the platforms, and Maloney has sided with the state. The Sixth Circuit is now expected to take the issue up directly.
The reasoning is what makes the ruling dangerous for the industry, not just the outcome. Maloney did not rule on a technicality; he engaged the core question — are these contracts swaps? — and answered no, at least at the likelihood-of-success stage. That is the exact opposite of Judge Liburdi's Arizona analysis, which found three independent grounds for preemption. Two federal judges looking at materially the same product reached opposite conclusions on the threshold legal question — the definition of an issue headed for higher review. It strengthens every state attorney general who has argued the gambling characterisation survives federal commodity law.
Two structural notes. First, an honest correction to our own prior coverage: we have repeatedly described the CFTC as winning these fights at trial-court level and our litigation scoreboard showed zero state wins. Michigan changes that, and we have updated the scoreboard. The accurate picture as of late June is a genuine split, not a federal sweep. Second, the tribal dimension is escalating: a coalition of more than 30 federally recognised tribes and the Indian Gaming Association filed an amicus brief supporting New York, arguing prediction markets threaten the exclusivity of tribal-state gaming compacts. The realistic path now runs through the Sixth Circuit and, almost certainly, eventually the Supreme Court.
Operators mentioned in this article
CFTC-regulated Kalshi
First fully CFTC-regulated US event-contract exchange.
Crypto / On-chain Polymarket
USDC-settled on Polygon. Largest prediction market by volume.
Broker (Embedded Contracts) Robinhood
Consumer brokerage offering embedded event contracts. Fastest-growing retail prediction market platform in the US.
Recent updates
Crypto.com and Novig Sue Missouri as Market Leaders Hold Back — Eighth Circuit Now in Play via Iowa
Crypto.com and Novig filed federal lawsuits on October 16 challenging Missouri's cease-and-desist orders, arguing their sports event contracts fall under exclusive CFTC jurisdiction. The suits came as Missouri's 30-day compliance window closed. Notably, the market leaders — Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Underdog — have not sued; Missouri said it is in 'ongoing discussions' with Kalshi. The outcome is tied to the Eighth Circuit, now weighing the same question in Kalshi's Iowa appeal — the fourth federal circuit to take up the prediction market question.
Ohio Escalates Post-Sixth Circuit — Cease-and-Desist to 10 Operators, but Platforms Keep Operating
Emboldened by its Sixth Circuit win, Ohio escalated enforcement. Governor Mike DeWine and the Ohio Casino Control Commission issued cease-and-desist letters dated October 2 to 10 operators, including Polymarket and Robinhood, with an October 16 deadline and penalties up to the value gained from contracts. Kalshi was excluded because a court order already covers it. As of October 20, platforms were still operating in Ohio despite the deadline. Polymarket has sued the Commission and AG Andy Wilson; Wilson is expected to sue non-compliant operators.
Midterm Election Betting Tops $220M — Double the Entire 2024 Cycle — as Public Opposition Mounts
Traders have wagered more than $220 million on the 2026 US congressional midterms across Kalshi and Polymarket, more than double the $92 million bet across the entire 2024 cycle, according to a Reuters analysis of Anti-Corruption Data Collective data published October 14. The 2026 cycle has more than 21,000 individual markets, up from 463 in 2024. Volume is concentrated in a few races, led by the Texas Senate contest. The growth comes despite a Reuters/Ipsos poll finding most Americans oppose using prediction markets to bet on elections.