Kalshi Is Seeking a $40 Billion Valuation — Seven Weeks After Raising at $22 Billion
Kalshi is in talks for a new funding round at a $40 billion valuation, nearly doubling its May 2026 Series F figure, according to the Financial Times. Annualised revenue has crossed $2 billion and CEO Tarek Mansour confirmed early IPO discussions — though not before 2027. Combined Kalshi and Polymarket volume hit $44.8 billion in June, a 75% jump from May.
Kalshi is seeking a new round of outside investment at a valuation of approximately $40 billion, according to the Financial Times, just seven weeks after closing a $1 billion Series F at a $22 billion valuation. Annualised revenue has crossed $2 billion, versus approximately $1 billion for Polymarket. The valuation climb tells the year's story in compressed form: $2 billion in June 2025, $11 billion in December, $22 billion in May 2026, $40 billion targeted now. The Series F investors — Coatue, Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, and Morgan Stanley — have seen their stake roughly double in value in under two months.
CEO Tarek Mansour confirmed to CNBC that the company is in early conversations about an eventual IPO but that a listing will not happen in 2026, with late 2027 or 2028 as the realistic window. That the IPO discussion is happening at all is a milestone: Kalshi's existence until this year was defined by its regulatory fight to establish its products were legal. That fight continues — nine US states are in active litigation — but the company is now simultaneously defending its right to operate and planning a public offering. Those two things coexist because the CFTC's legal posture strongly suggests the federal-preemption arguments will ultimately hold.
Combined Kalshi and Polymarket monthly trading volume for June was $44.8 billion, a 75% surge from May's $25.66 billion, driven overwhelmingly by World Cup trading. Kalshi claims more than 90% of US prediction market activity by volume, and institutional trading grew 800% in the six months to June 2026. These are not the numbers of a niche product — they approach the scale of mid-tier US futures exchanges. The CFTC's proposed rule, open for comment until 27 July, would formalise the regulatory regime underpinning all of it.
For UK observers, the $40 billion target is instructive about the regulatory dividend of a clear federal framework. Kalshi's entire valuation trajectory — from $2 billion to $40 billion in 12 months — traces directly to the CFTC establishing authoritative jurisdiction over prediction markets and successfully defending it in court. A UK exchange operating under equivalent FCA clarity would have the same advantage. Without that clarity, British operators cannot build the product, and British investors are watching the value creation happen in a market where they cannot participate.
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Recent updates
Massachusetts Supreme Court Ruling on Kalshi Now Imminent — First State High Court Decision on Prediction Markets
The Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court is expected to rule within weeks on whether Kalshi's sports event contracts constitute illegal sports gambling under state law — the first time any US state supreme court has decided this question. The SJC appeared skeptical of Kalshi's CFTC-preemption argument at May 5 oral arguments. A coalition of 38 state attorneys general backed Massachusetts; the CFTC backed Kalshi. The outcome will be the first state apex court ruling on prediction markets anywhere in the country.
27 States Back California Tribes Suing Kalshi Over Sports Contracts Under Indian Gaming Law
Three California tribes are pursuing a separate Ninth Circuit case against Kalshi's sports contracts under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act — a 1988 federal law governing tribal gaming rights that is independent of the CEA preemption arguments in the Nevada, NJ, and Connecticut cases. The Ninth Circuit refused consolidation with the Nevada case. A panel appeared skeptical of Kalshi in July. 27 states plus DC filed amicus supporting the tribes.
SCOTUS Review of Prediction Markets Hits 64% on Polymarket — New Jersey Files Cert Petition September 3
Polymarket's contract on Supreme Court review of prediction markets by year-end jumped from 30% to 64% within hours of the Ninth Circuit's August 28 ruling, generating $976K in volume. New Jersey files its certiorari petition September 3. The Third Circuit vs Ninth Circuit split on the same statutory question is the clearest available trigger for SCOTUS to take the case.