Kalshi Has $6.7bn in World Cup Volume — Bank of America Now Estimates $12-13bn by the Final
Two weeks into the 2026 FIFA World Cup, Kalshi reports $6.7 billion in total World Cup trading volume, with a Bank of America analyst note estimating the platform will reach $12-13 billion by the 19 July final. Polymarket's soccer category crossed $2 billion in its first ten days, a 300% jump on pre-tournament levels. The numbers already eclipse the most optimistic pre-tournament projections.
Two weeks into the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the volume numbers from the two major US prediction-market platforms are well past the optimistic end of pre-tournament estimates. Kalshi reports $6.7 billion in total World Cup trading volume, and a Bank of America analyst note puts the full-tournament figure at $12-13 billion by the 19 July final at MetLife Stadium. Polymarket's soccer category crossed $2 billion in its first ten days — a 300% jump on pre-tournament levels — with daily volume climbing from roughly $53 million to $220 million. Our pre-tournament piece projected record levels going in; the actual mid-tournament numbers are a different order of magnitude.
The platforms are accumulating volume in structurally different ways. Kalshi's open interest hit a record $1.16 billion during the tournament — traders holding positions over time on group winners, semi-finalists, the eventual champion. Polymarket's overall open interest has remained relatively flat even as volume spiked, implying heavy turnover: traders rotating in and out on individual matches and short-dated contracts. Kalshi's compounding OI profile suggests the emergence of larger directional traders; Polymarket's high-turnover pattern reflects the broader consumer base the World Cup attracts.
For UK readers the contrast with home remains sharp: prediction markets are not available to UK customers under FCA permissions, so the tournament is bet through Gambling Commission licensees — Flutter's Paddy Power and Sky Bet, Entain's Ladbrokes and Coral, bet365. The affordability-check regime introduced since the last World Cup is facing its first sustained six-week stress test. The US volumes are a useful reference point for what a fully-open UK prediction-market market might look like, though the regulatory trajectory here remains cautious.
Two numbers worth watching as the knockout rounds progress. Spain remains the favourite across both platforms for the title — the contract with the most aggregate volume in the tournament. Polymarket alone has over $28 million concentrated on the Golden Boot market. Both figures will grow as the field narrows. Bank of America's $12-13 billion Kalshi estimate was published before the round of 16; the knockout-stage concentration effect typically drives a second volume surge. The question is no longer whether this is the largest prediction-market event ever staged — it already is.
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Recent updates
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