How to Trade
on PredictIt
PredictIt is the longest-running US real-money political prediction market, operating since 2014 under a CFTC no-action letter. It covers US elections, legislative outcomes, and political events exclusively. Key constraint: a maximum $850 investment per contract. This guide explains the platform, the fee structure, and how PredictIt compares to newer alternatives.
What you need to know about PredictIt
Elections, bills, approval ratings
PredictIt is exclusively a political prediction market: US federal elections, state races, congressional activity, presidential approval, policy passage markets. No sports, no economics, no weather. For broader coverage, use Kalshi.
Position size is strictly limited
The CFTC no-action exemption requires PredictIt to limit each trader's investment in any single contract to $850. This caps maximum risk per market position. It also limits total P&L per trade significantly compared to Kalshi where there's no such cap.
Highest fees of major US platforms
PredictIt charges 10% of your gross profit on winning positions, plus 5% of the total amount when you withdraw. These fees significantly reduce net returns: a 20¢ profit per contract becomes ~18¢ after the 10% profit fee, then another 5% cut on withdrawal.
Long-duration political markets
PredictIt's presidential and midterm election markets can be open for 2+ years. This ties up capital for extended periods. Unlike short-duration economic contracts on Kalshi, political markets require long-term commitment of your $850 per contract.
How to start trading on PredictIt
- 1 Create a PredictIt accountGo to predictit.org and click "Sign Up." You'll provide your email, create a password, and enter your full name and date of birth. PredictIt requires lighter KYC than CFTC-regulated exchanges like Kalshi: they do not require a Social Security Number upfront. However, you will need to verify your identity for larger deposits or withdrawals.
- 2 Verify your email and complete profileConfirm your email address. PredictIt will ask for your country and state of residence. PredictIt is available to US residents in all 50 states: there are no state-level restrictions for the politics-only markets it offers under its CFTC no-action exemption. Complete your profile information.
- 3 Fund your accountPredictIt accepts funding via debit card, credit card, and bank transfer (ACH). Minimum deposit is $10. Note the CFTC no-action limits: you can invest a maximum of $850 per contract (per individual market question), not per platform. There is no overall account size limit, but the $850-per-contract cap limits how much you can deploy in any single market.
- 4 Browse available marketsPredictIt exclusively covers US political markets: federal elections (presidential, Senate, House), state gubernatorial and legislative races, congressional approval ratings, policy outcome markets (Will bill X pass?), and selected political event markets. Each market is structured as a YES/NO binary, or as a multiple-choice market where each answer is a separate contract (e.g., "Who will win the 2026 Senate race in Ohio?" with each candidate as a separate tradeable share).
- 5 Understand the $850 contract limitThe most important PredictIt-specific rule: you can invest a maximum of $850 in any single contract in any single market. This is a condition of PredictIt's CFTC no-action letter, not a trading preference. It means position sizing is fundamentally constrained: you cannot put more than $850 at risk on any one binary outcome. Multi-choice markets allow you to trade multiple contracts (e.g., multiple candidates), but each individual contract is capped at $850.
- 6 Place your orderSelect a market and choose which contract to trade (YES or NO, or a specific candidate/outcome). Enter your price (in cents per $1 payout) and quantity. PredictIt uses a standard limit orderbook. The minimum trade is 1 share at 1¢. PredictIt charges a 10% fee on profits and a 5% fee on withdrawals: see the fee section below for the full breakdown.
- 7 Monitor and manage positionsOpen positions are tracked in your PredictIt portfolio. You can sell at any time before resolution in the secondary market. PredictIt markets close when the underlying question resolves (election held, bill passes or fails, etc.). Markets can remain open for months or years: presidential markets have 2+ year lifespans. You'll receive email notifications on important market events.
- 8 Withdrawal and taxesWithdraw funds via the same methods as deposit (debit card, ACH). Note the 5% withdrawal fee: this is deducted from your withdrawal amount. For tax purposes, PredictIt issues 1099 forms covering your annual net activity. Net profits are ordinary income at federal and state rates. The fee structure means you need to account for both the 10% profit fee and the 5% withdrawal fee in your returns calculation.
PredictIt's fee structure — fully explained
How the fees stack up on a winning trade
Resolution: YES wins
Gross payout: 100 × $1.00 = $100
Gross profit: $100 − $60 = $40
10% profit fee: $40 × 0.10 = $4.00
Net in account after fee: $60 + $36 = $96
5% withdrawal fee on $96: $4.80
Total take-home: $91.20
Effective return: +52% gross → +52% on stake before fees → +35% after all fees
The 5% withdrawal fee is avoidable if you reinvest profits rather than withdraw. Many traders keep their winnings on platform and only withdraw periodically. But for anyone who trades actively and withdraws regularly, the combined fee load (10% on profits + 5% on withdrawals) is the highest of any major US prediction market platform. For comparison, Kalshi charges 0–7% on profit with no withdrawal fee.
PredictIt vs Kalshi for political markets
| Feature | PredictIt | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Regulation | CFTC no-action exemption | CFTC-regulated DCM |
| Max position size | $850 per contract | No position cap |
| Fee on profits | 10% of gross profit | 0–7% of net profit (varies by market) |
| Withdrawal fee | 5% of withdrawal amount | No withdrawal fee |
| Market categories | US politics only | Sports, politics, economics, weather, more |
| Market age / depth | 10+ years (established community | Founded 2020) faster growing, newer |
| 1099 tax form | Yes (annual 1099 | Yes) annual 1099-MISC |
| US states | All 50 states | All 50 states (sports some restrictions) |
When to use PredictIt: You're a politics specialist who values the platform's deep liquidity on specific US political races, the established community, and the range of hyper-specific political markets (individual congressional races, state-level elections) that Kalshi may not carry. Many serious political traders use both platforms. When Kalshi is better: You want to bet more than $850 per contract, you want economics or sports in the same account, or the fee difference matters to you on large positions.
Common questions about PredictIt
Why is PredictIt limited to $850 per contract? +
The $850-per-contract limit is a condition of PredictIt's CFTC no-action letter, which exempts PredictIt from certain CFTC regulations that would apply to a licensed designated contract market (DCM). The no-action letter was originally issued in 2014 and has been renewed. The limit exists because the CFTC views small-scale political prediction markets differently from large-scale commodity derivatives: the $850 cap is intended to keep PredictIt in the "small market research" category.
Is PredictIt regulated by the CFTC? +
PredictIt operates under a CFTC no-action exemption: the CFTC has agreed not to take enforcement action against PredictIt as long as it complies with specific conditions (US politics only, $850 cap, no-profit academic oversight). It is not a CFTC-designated contract market (DCM) like Kalshi or ForecastEx. This is a meaningful distinction for regulatory protection and contract breadth.
What happens to my money if PredictIt closes? +
PredictIt has faced regulatory uncertainty at various points. If the CFTC revokes its no-action letter, PredictIt would be required to wind down operations and return funds to users. Customer funds are held separately from operating funds under the no-action terms. The situation in 2022–2023 (when the CFTC briefly withdrew the no-action letter before reversing) showed the platform can be shut down with limited warning. Diversify across platforms to manage this risk.
Can I use PredictIt and Kalshi for the same political markets? +
Yes: and many serious political traders do. The same political market often exists on both platforms at slightly different prices. If Kalshi shows a 62¢ YES and PredictIt shows 59¢, there's a potential arbitrage (buy PredictIt, sell Kalshi). The $850 PredictIt cap limits the size of any such opportunity, but price differentials between the platforms create genuine trading opportunities for active arbitrageurs.
More guides
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