Kalshi vs PredictIt:
Which Political Market Wins?
Both are US-regulated prediction markets with a politics focus — but they're very different platforms. Kalshi is a full CFTC-licensed exchange with no caps. PredictIt is a 10-year-old academic research project with an $850 contract ceiling and a fee structure that doesn't scale.
Who should use which?
You want to trade seriously
- You want politics plus economics, sports, and weather
- You want to stake more than $850 on a single contract
- You want lower fees on winning trades
- You want the most stable regulatory footing
- You want deeper liquidity on major political markets
You're a political forecaster, not a trader
- You're primarily interested in US politics
- You'll never stake more than $850 per contract anyway
- You value the community and long track record
- You're comfortable with the regulatory uncertainty
- You want to compare your record against a known benchmark
Full comparison table
| Feature | Kalshi | PredictIt |
|---|---|---|
| Founded | 2021 | 2014 |
| Operator | Kalshi Inc. | Victoria University of Wellington |
| Regulation | CFTC-licensed DCM (full) | CFTC no-action letter (under litigation) |
| US access | ✅ All US residents | ✅ US participants only |
| Settlement | USD (cash) | USD (cash) |
| Categories | Politics, economics, sports, weather, culture, crypto | Politics only |
| Contract cap | No cap | $850 per contract per market |
| Fees | 0–7% of net profit | 10% of net profit + 5% on withdrawals |
| Min deposit | $1 | $10 |
| KYC | Full KYC | Full KYC |
| Volume | $2B+ (2025) | $1B+ lifetime |
| Mobile app | ✅ iOS + Android | ✅ iOS + Android |
| Track record | Since 2021 | Since 1988 (predecessor IEM) |
| Regulatory risk | Low (fully licensed) | Elevated (no-action letter challenged) |
PredictIt's biggest limitation
Under its CFTC no-action letter, PredictIt cannot allow any single participant to invest more than $850 in a given contract within a given market. This was designed to keep the platform within the scope of a nonprofit academic project. In practice it means you cannot meaningfully scale a position even if you have high conviction — your maximum upside on a YES share at $0.50 is $850 profit. Kalshi has no such cap.
The real cost of trading
0–7% of net profit, nothing on losses
Kalshi's fees scale with your success — if you lose, you pay nothing. Typical rates are 2–7% depending on the market category. On a $500 net profit, the maximum fee is $35.
10% of profits + 5% on every withdrawal
PredictIt charges 10% of all net profits, then a further 5% when you withdraw any funds. On a $500 net profit you pay $50 in profit fees — then another $22.50 when you take your $450 out. Total cost: $72.50, or roughly 14.5% of the win. This double-fee structure is expensive by any modern standard.
PredictIt's uncertain future
Kalshi holds a full CFTC designated contract market licence — the same as the CME. Its regulatory position is the most secure of any US prediction market. PredictIt operates under a 2014 no-action letter that the CFTC attempted to terminate in August 2022. PredictIt obtained a court injunction and continues to operate while litigation plays out. If PredictIt loses in court it could be forced to close. Funds on the platform would be returned to users, but open positions would resolve as void. That regulatory risk is real and worth factoring into any decision to trade on PredictIt.
Common questions
Is Kalshi better than PredictIt?+
For most US users, yes. Kalshi has no contract cap, lower fees, broader categories, and stronger regulatory footing. PredictIt's advantage is its long track record and political community — but its $850 cap, 10% fee, and ongoing CFTC litigation make it weaker for serious traders.
Is PredictIt shutting down?+
Not as of 2026. PredictIt secured a court injunction in 2022 allowing it to continue operating while CFTC litigation proceeds. The outcome is still pending. There is real risk it could be forced to close if it loses — factor this in before depositing large amounts.
What is PredictIt's $850 cap?+
Under its CFTC no-action letter, no user can invest more than $850 in any single contract within a single market. Designed to keep PredictIt within academic research scope. Kalshi has no such limit.
Which has better political markets?+
Both cover US politics, but Kalshi now has deeper liquidity on major political events and more markets. PredictIt has a longer community track record. For anyone wanting to stake meaningfully, Kalshi is the better choice.