Robinhood Becomes Fastest-Growing Prediction Market With 12B+ Contracts in 2025
Robinhood processed over 12 billion event contracts in 2025 and acquired MIAXdx to build its own CFTC-licensed exchange, positioning it to compete directly with Kalshi and ForecastEx.
Robinhood's prediction markets hub, launched in March 2025, became the fastest-growing retail entry point to event-contract trading in the United States within its first year. The company disclosed that more than 12 billion contracts were traded on the platform in 2025 and that over one million users actively trade prediction markets. That adoption curve reflects both Robinhood's existing 26-million-strong user base and the ease of adding event contracts to a platform already used for stocks, ETFs, and crypto.
In January 2026, Robinhood acquired MIAXdx, a CFTC-licensed designated contract market (DCM). The acquisition signals that Robinhood intends to operate its own prediction market exchange rather than relying indefinitely on ForecastEx (political and economic contracts) and Kalshi (sports contracts). Analysts expect Robinhood's own exchange to go live in mid-2026, potentially offering a full suite of event contracts (sports, politics, economics, and potentially weather) from a single in-house licensed venue.
The sports contract expansion accelerated in December 2025 when Robinhood added NFL parlay and prop bet-style event contracts via its Kalshi integration, ahead of the NFL playoffs. Sports contracts are currently available in 35+ US states including the major markets of California, Texas, and Florida.
Robinhood's fee structure ($0.02/contract: $0.01 Robinhood + $0.01 exchange fee) is competitive against traditional sportsbooks but slightly more expensive than Novig's commission-free model or Kalshi's profit-only-fee structure for losing trades. With its own DCM, Robinhood could restructure its pricing to remain the most consumer-friendly option in the embedded brokerage segment.
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Utah Files Felony Charges Against Kalshi and Its Founders — Second State to Criminally Charge a Platform
Utah filed criminal charges against Kalshi and its two co-founders, Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, on October 28 — 13 felonies and a misdemeanor, including a second-degree 'pattern of unlawful criminal activity' count and 12 counts of online gambling promotion. The charges stem from a September sting in which an undercover agent placed 12 sports wagers verified to be in Utah. The CFTC sued Utah the day before to block state enforcement, its tenth such suit. Utah is the second state after Arizona to criminally charge Kalshi, and the first to charge the founders personally. Kalshi called it a 'crazy overreach.'
NBA Names Kalshi and Polymarket Preferred Exchanges — Leaving the NFL Alone in Opposition
The NBA announced on October 26 that it has named Kalshi and Polymarket its 'preferred prediction market exchanges,' signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with the CFTC on basketball integrity, and expanded its DraftKings deal to include prediction markets — the first league to extend a sportsbook partnership into the category. The exchange deals bar league and team personnel from trading NBA contracts, limit permissible markets, and require sharing of suspicious-trading data, in exchange for NBA intellectual property and official data. The NBA joins MLB, the NHL, and MLS as partnered leagues, leaving the NFL as the lone major holdout — and the only league fighting the platforms in court.
CFTC Chair Says Agency Is Watching Prediction Markets for Manipulation Ahead of Midterms
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said on October 23 that the agency is closely monitoring prediction markets for manipulation ahead of the November 3 midterms, and that it is separately scrutinizing oil market trading tied to President Trump's announcements about the war in Iran. Combined midterm open interest on Kalshi and Polymarket stood at $250 million as of October 18, with Kalshi holding 84%. Selig acknowledged the agency often catches political figures attempting to trade 'oftentimes after the fact.' The remarks highlight the CFTC's dual and somewhat conflicting role as both the platforms' federal protector and their manipulation watchdog, at a time when the agency has shed enforcement staff.