Prediction Markets
in Ohio
Ohio has active court proceedings disputing whether CFTC authorization preempts state gaming laws for event contract platforms. CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi operate under federal preemption, but Polymarket's QCEX platform is restricted for Ohio residents pending resolution of the state's legal challenge. Courts across multiple states are reaching conflicting conclusions on this question.
Which platforms are available in Ohio?
| Platform | Status in OH | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Available | CFTC-regulated DCM — broadest topic coverage, no deposit minimum |
| Polymarket | Restricted | Blocked: active state enforcement action or geo-restriction in place as of April 2026 |
| Manifold | Available | Play-money + optional sweepstakes cashout, 5% fee. Available everywhere except DE, ID, MI, WA. |
| PredictIt | Available | Politics-only markets, $850 max per contract. CFTC no-action relief. |
⚠ Platform availability can change. Always verify directly with the platform before depositing funds. Polymarket's QCEX waitlist is currently 6–12 weeks for most states.
Kalshi
CFTC-regulated DCM — broadest topic coverage, no deposit minimum
Manifold
Play-money + optional sweepstakes cashout, 5% fee. Available everywhere except DE, ID, MI, WA.
PredictIt
Politics-only markets, $850 max per contract. CFTC no-action relief.
Regulatory environment in Ohio
Ohio has active court proceedings disputing whether CFTC authorization preempts state gaming laws for event contract platforms. CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi operate under federal preemption, but Polymarket's QCEX platform is restricted for Ohio residents pending resolution of the state's legal challenge. Courts across multiple states are reaching conflicting conclusions on this question.
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) operates under federal preemption — generally accessible in Ohio
- Polymarket QCEX is currently restricted due to active state-level enforcement action
- Monitor regulatory developments — enforcement posture in caution states can shift quickly
- Consult a local attorney before deploying significant capital on non-CFTC platforms
How Ohio taxes prediction market profits
Ohio taxes event contract profits as ordinary income at state rates up to 3.75%.
At the federal level, platforms like Kalshi issue annual 1099-MISC forms reporting net profits as ordinary income. You can deduct up to $3,000 in net losses per year against other income, carrying forward the remainder to future years. If you trade sports event contracts, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA, signed July 4 2025) caps sports betting loss deductibility at 90% starting in 2026.
General information only. Consult a qualified tax professional regarding your specific situation.
Calculate your edge
Expected Value Calculator
Convert any contract price to American odds, decimal odds, and implied probability — then check whether a trade has positive expected value before you place it.
● Kelly calculatorKelly Criterion — Optimal Bet Sizing
Enter your edge and bankroll to find the mathematically optimal stake size. Includes half-Kelly (the practical default) and quarter-Kelly recommendations.
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