Prediction Markets Handled 10x More Than US Bookmakers During the World Cup — and a Third Exchange Just Entered the Race
Prediction market platforms combined for over $50 billion in trading volume in June 2026 as the FIFA World Cup drove the sector's most active month on record — roughly ten times the volume projected for US legal sportsbooks across the entire 104-match tournament. ADI Predictstreet, the FIFA official prediction market partner, co-branded with Kalshi in stadiums and on Fox Sports. Rothera, the Robinhood and Susquehanna joint venture, processed $2 billion in its debut month.
Prediction market platforms combined for over $50 billion in trading volume in June 2026, the most active month in the sector's history. Kalshi posted $31 billion in total notional volume — a 70% jump over May — with sports contracts accounting for roughly 85% of activity. Polymarket's international exchange recorded $10.8 billion, while its regulated US platform added $3.5 billion. Rothera, the new exchange operated by Robinhood and Susquehanna, added $2 billion in its debut month. US legal sportsbooks are projected to handle $2.8 to $4.3 billion across all 104 World Cup matches combined. Prediction markets processed approximately ten times that figure.
ADI Predictstreet is the FIFA-designated official prediction market partner of the 2026 World Cup and holds regulatory approval to operate in both the US and Gibraltar. Under a co-branding deal announced in late June, Kalshi's logo appeared alongside ADI's in stadium signage, Fox Sports broadcasts, and ADI's digital tournament hub during the knockout rounds — the first time a US prediction market platform has had mass-market sports-media distribution at an event of this scale. For UK readers, this is the clearest signal yet that prediction markets have crossed into the mainstream commercial sports sponsorship category that traditional bookmakers inhabit.
For UK customers, the headline figures are informative but not directly applicable: neither Kalshi nor Polymarket holds a Gambling Commission licence or FCA authorisation for UK retail operation, so the $50 billion figure represents activity that UK traders cannot participate in through the primary platforms. What the tournament data shows is the scale of the market developing without UK participation. The combined monthly volume of prediction markets now exceeds the annual handle of many regulated European sports-betting markets. If the UK regulatory pathway opens — through Gibraltar's new framework or a future FCA-led regime — the addressable market is already proven at significant scale.
Rothera's $2 billion debut marks the first meaningful competitive challenge to Kalshi's exchange dominance from within the US regulated market. Robinhood built Rothera through a joint venture with Susquehanna (45%/45%, with 10% to MIAX), closing in January 2026 and launching publicly for the World Cup. Robinhood's CFO has said the company expects most of its prediction-market volume to migrate to Rothera over time. For Kalshi, the World Cup delivered a record-breaking month while revealing that its largest retail distribution partner is building the infrastructure to capture that flow in-house. The $50 billion combined figure is the sector's highest watermark; the competitive dynamics behind it are more complicated than the headline suggests.
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Recent updates
Utah Files Felony Charges Against Kalshi and Its Founders — Second State to Criminally Charge a Platform
Utah filed criminal charges against Kalshi and its two co-founders, Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, on October 28 — 13 felonies and a misdemeanour, including a second-degree 'pattern of unlawful criminal activity' count and 12 counts of online gambling promotion. The charges stem from a September sting in which an undercover agent placed 12 sports wagers verified to be in Utah. The CFTC sued Utah the day before to block state enforcement, its tenth such suit. Utah is the second state after Arizona to criminally charge Kalshi, and the first to charge the founders personally. Kalshi called it a 'crazy overreach.'
NBA Names Kalshi and Polymarket Preferred Exchanges — Leaving the NFL Alone in Opposition
The NBA announced on October 26 that it has named Kalshi and Polymarket its 'preferred prediction market exchanges,' signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with the CFTC on basketball integrity, and expanded its DraftKings deal to include prediction markets — the first league to extend a sportsbook partnership into the category. The exchange deals bar league and team personnel from trading NBA contracts, limit permissible markets, and require sharing suspicious-trading data, in exchange for NBA intellectual property and official data. The NBA joins MLB, the NHL, and MLS as partnered leagues, leaving the NFL as the lone major holdout — and the only league fighting the platforms in court.
CFTC Chair Says Agency Is Watching Prediction Markets for Manipulation Ahead of Midterms
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said on October 23 that the agency is closely monitoring prediction markets for manipulation ahead of the November 3 midterms, and that it is separately scrutinising oil market trading tied to President Trump's announcements about the war in Iran. Combined midterm open interest on Kalshi and Polymarket stood at $250 million as of October 18, with Kalshi holding 84%. Selig acknowledged the agency often catches political figures trading 'oftentimes after the fact.' The remarks highlight the CFTC's dual role as both the platforms' federal protector and their manipulation watchdog.