Compare US
Prediction Market Platforms
Not sure which platform is right for you? These head-to-head guides break down fees, regulation, liquidity, categories, and US access so you can choose without guessing.
Head-to-head guides
Kalshi vs Polymarket
The two dominant US prediction market names — CFTC regulation vs global on-chain liquidity, USD vs USDC, sports contracts vs depth.
US politicsKalshi vs PredictIt
Both US-regulated and politics-focused, but very different in fees, contract caps, and regulatory stability. Kalshi is the modern choice; PredictIt has history.
Real vs play moneyPolymarket vs Manifold
Real-money USDC trading on the most liquid platform in the world vs free play-money forecasting with user-created markets and calibration tracking.
Both CFTC-licensedKalshi vs ForecastEx
Two CFTC-regulated DCMs with one big difference: Kalshi is a standalone platform, ForecastEx lives inside your existing broker (IB or Robinhood).
Which platform for which use case?
Kalshi
Fully CFTC-regulated, USD settlement, sports + economics + politics, available to all US residents today. No crypto wallet needed.
Full Kalshi profile →Polymarket
$8B+ lifetime volume, deepest orderbooks on political and geopolitical markets. US licensed app rolling out via waitlist 2026.
Full Polymarket profile →Manifold
Free play-money, no crypto, user-created markets on any topic. The best way to learn forecasting without financial risk.
Full Manifold profile →ForecastEx
Zero extra friction — political and economic event contracts inside your existing brokerage account.
Full ForecastEx profile →Iowa Electronic Markets
Founded 1988, oldest real-money prediction market in the world. US politics only, $500 cap. Academic heritage.
Full IEM profile →Drift Bet
Solana-based, USDC settlement, no KYC. Lowest fees of any on-chain venue. Best for users already in the Solana ecosystem.
Full Drift Bet profile →How much does it cost to trade $1,000?
Fees are often hidden in spreads or only charged on winning trades. Here's what a $1,000 position at a 50¢ market price actually costs across major platforms.
| Platform | Fee model | $1,000 trade example | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 0–7% of net profit | ~$0–70 per trade (only charged on winning side) | No fee if you lose. Fee is deducted from profit, not from stake. |
| Polymarket | ~2% taker fee | ~$20 per $1,000 trade | Taker fee charged on each buy/sell regardless of outcome. |
| Robinhood | $0.01 + $0.01 per contract | ~$40 per $1,000 trade (2,000 contracts × $0.02) | Fixed per-contract cost regardless of outcome. 2,000 contracts at 50¢ = 2,000 × $0.02. |
| ForecastEx / IB | No commission | $0 commission | Revenue from the bid-ask spread. No explicit per-trade fee. |
| Drift Bet | ~1–2% taker fee | ~$10–20 per $1,000 trade | On-chain venue; also pay Solana network gas (~$0.001/tx, negligible). |
| Novig | Commission-free | $0 commission | P2P exchange — revenue model is still evolving post-Series B. |
| Manifold | Free / 5% cashout fee | $0 to trade; $50 cashout fee on $1,000 withdrawal | Play-money is free. Real sweepcash: 5% fee only when cashing out, not per trade. |
⚠ Assumes 2,000 YES contracts at $0.50 each for the per-contract model. Actual costs vary by market type, trade size, and spread. Kalshi fee rates differ by contract category. Always verify current fees directly with each platform before trading.